The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers open a four-game series at Globe Life Field in Arlington this Monday night with the first pitch at 8:05 PM ET, so here’s the best betting pick for this AL West showdown along with the latest odds update.
The Astros are firm favorites for this clash, sitting at -180 on BetUs Sportsbook. The Rangers are +166 moneyline dogs at home, while the totals are listed at 9.0 runs. Houston is 11-4 against Texas in 2021, and the Astros have won seven of their previous eight matchups with the Rangers.
The Stars’ iffy form goes on
The Houston Astros fell to 82-59 on the season following a 4-2 defeat to the Los Angeles Angels this past Saturday (Sunday’s games are excluded from the analysis). It was their seventh loss in the last 12 games overall, but the Astros are still topping the AL West comfortably, five and a half games ahead of Oakland and Seattle.
Jake Odorizzi (6-7; 4.28 ERA) will take the mound Monday at Globe Life Field, and the 31-year-old righty is 4-1 with a 3.49 ERA in ten career starts and one relief appearance against Texas. He’s met the Rangers three times this season and has taken a no-decision on all three occasions while yielding five earned runs across 13.2 innings of work.
Over his last four outings, Odorizzi has done a good job for the Astros, posting a 2.61 ERA and 3.36 FIP through 20.2 frames of work. Last time out, he’s tossed five innings of a two-run ball in a 5-4 home victory to Seattle.
The Rangers have been terrific over the last couple of weeks
The Texas Rangers are the second-worst team in the American League, but they’ve played very well in the last two weeks, winning eight of their previous 12 games at any location. The Rangers improved to 52-89 on the season last Saturday. They beat the Oakland Athletics as +185 road dogs, 8-6, overcoming a four-run deficit with the five-run eighth inning.
A.J. Alexy will toe the slab Monday against the Astros, and the 23-year-old rookie is 2-0 from his first two major-league starts. Alexy hasn’t allowed a single run across 11 innings of work while surrendering a couple of hits and five walks. Last Monday, the righty fanned seven across six scoreless innings in a 4-0 road victory over the Angels.
Alexy pitched well in Triple-A this term, tallying a 1.84 ERA in three starts. He’s dominated Double-A with a 1.61 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 57/21 K/BB ratio in 50.1 innings pitched.
- 7-1 in the last eight games against Texas
- 3-6 in the last nine games at home
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Pick
The Astros have scored 44 runs over their first nine games in September while slashing .279/.346/.455. Their offense should make the difference, especially against A.J. Alexy, who’ll have to yield some runs after a couple of strong outings against much weaker opponents.
The Rangers bullpen has been outstanding so far this month, registering a 2.84 ERA and 3.51 FIP. That’s another unsustainable record, while the Astros desperately need more from their bullpen that has posted a poor 4.19 ERA and 5.55 FIP in September.
Pick: Take Houston Astros at -180
The Rangers’ offense has been awful all season long. Texas is slashing just .253/.306/.373 in September, posting the sixth-worst OPS in the majors. Still, the over has hit in four of their last six outings, and the total has gone over in five of the Astros’ previous seven games overall.
There will be some tired arms after a tough weekend, so I’m backing the over on the totals. The Rangers’ rookie starter will be tested by the Astros’ powerful lineup, and that could lead to a bunch of runs early in the game.
Pick: Go over 9.0 runs at -110
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