2016-11-17 13:44
So far looks like a tame overnight session and most likely a tame open for the markets this morning.
The big news yesterday is that Trump ditched the media to go have dinner with his family… Read More
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The most current state of the art techniques to find value in Sports Handicapping, Trading and Political Odds
2016-11-16 18:30
You never know how a day is going to turn out for plays as there is so many moving parts they typically do not come together except in rare circumstances shortly before game time.
Tuesday wa… Read More
2016-11-16 13:48
It had to happen the rally that we have seen since the election is producing a gap down. Imagine that:) Its not much of one, only 1/4% as I am writing this.
And finally for now demonstration… Read More
2016-11-15 22:25
In college hoops unlike the other sprts it takes a few days of games before what I look at becomes significant. We are almost a week into College hoops and things should start picking up soo… Read More
2016-11-15 14:01
90 Min before the open and SPY is up .20%. The positive news is QQQ up almost .60% which is a change from prior sessions. I see QQQ as the key as to when (not if) this rally continues.
I am… Read More
2016-11-14 19:54
3:00 Update
1 game tonight in the NFL
Cinci
Giants
Betting is 65% on the Home dog with the line moving from Giants-2.5-105 to Cinci -1-109. Models strongly favor the Giants, Variables… Read More
2016-11-14 13:32
The Trump rally continues,except for tech stocks. But I anticipate that sector catching up soon. One thing to watch for is the Nasdaq over taking the SPY on the Weekly charts. That is one of… Read More
2016-11-13 15:24
10:45 update
Its been a crazy morning for me up at 3:00 working away on todays games. I spent about 40 min on my writeup for today discussing a variety of subjects including the streak we ar… Read More
2016-11-12 17:18
9:45 Update
Number 2 Clemson is playing Pitt at home today.
69% of the betting is on Clemson with the line moving from -20-106 to -21.5-104. Models slightly favor Pitt, Variables slightly fa… Read More
2016-11-11 14:19
Market is off a bit this morning but all I expect is a small pullback. We are in seasonally strong times now. Along with that in 2 months the crushing regulations that are killing our busine… Read More
2016-11-10 19:16
4:00 Update
A game in the NFL tonight:
Cleveland
Baltimore
Betting is 58% on Baltimore and the line has moved from -10+106 to -7.5+101. Models favor Baltimore, Variables are split but… Read More
2016-11-10 14:17
It looks like Mark Cuban had it wrong. Not surprising of course. However on Monday night he was looking pretty smart. But it appears the market was concerned about the transition of power ra… Read More
2016-11-09 21:02
3:45 Update
Two games tonight in College Football:
Bowling Green
Akron
Betting is 74% on the home Favorite with the line moving from -8.5-106 to -10-106. Models are neutral, Variables are ne… Read More
2016-11-09 13:31
If you thought Comey coming out 2 days before the election to say nothing there in the 650,000 emails was surprising , Trump winning the election was an earthquake.
If you were lo… Read More
2016-11-08 21:09
4:00 Update
A top 25 team playing tonight in College Football:
#23 W. Michigan
Kent State
Betting is 85% on the road favorite with the line moving from -18-106 to -21-106. Models clearly fav… Read More
2016-11-08 13:48
I cannot remember an election day with this much public interest. The polarization in the U.S. is at the breaking point and it would not take much to break the next two days.
I suggest if yo… Read More
2016-11-07 19:40
3:00 Update
One game tonight in the NFL:
Buffalo
Seattle
Betting is 63% on Seattle with the line moving from -7+111 to -6-103. Models are split, Variables are neutral and public betting favo… Read More
2016-11-07 13:54
Who would of thought that over the weekend with 650000 emails to review in less than a week that Comey would come out and calm the markets by telling Congress there is nothing new  &hell…Read More
2016-11-06 14:00
Saturday we had another busy day with 4 one unit plays going 3-1. In College football we had two cliffhangers with Kansas +31.5 down by 31 at the half but hung on to cover 21-48 and Oregon S… Read More
2016-11-05 17:29
Yes a fast start with Friday continuing our run with 2 plays both winners. In the NBA we had the Lakers +11.5 but we did not need the points as the Lakers blew out the warriors by 20 117-97!… Read More
2016-11-04 17:38
On Thursday we had 3 one unit plays and went 2-1 continuing our great start for November.
In the NBA we had Denver +3 and they won the game 102-99. We went 1-1 in the NHL winning with Calgar… Read More
2016-11-04 13:06
I know you do not want to hear this but when parties in a presidential election go low. And I mean as low as you can get it scares the markets. The threats of a civil war, that a person will… Read More
2016-11-02 15:03
After a great October we got off to a good start to Nov yesterday with 4 one unit plays going 3-1. In the NBA we went 2-0 with Milwaukee +3.5 winning the game outright 117-113 and Utah +9.5… Read More
2016-11-02 12:36
You can tell the polls are tightening in the presidential race as the market is acting very nervous here. A week ago it was a forgone conclusion that Clinton would be our next President and… Read More
2016-11-01 17:16
4:45 Update
Series Game tonight!!
Cubs
Cleveland
Betting is 52% on the Home Dog with the line moving from Cubs -137 to Cubs -152. Models favor Cleveland . Variables are split on the game. Pu… Read More
2016-11-01 12:02
November marks the beginning of the seasonally strong period for the markets. We enter that period with the market oversold. In addition, we enter this period with record turmoil in the U.S… Read More
2016-10-31 19:24
3:30 Update:
One game tonight in the NFL:
Minn
Bears
Betting is 82% on the Road Favorite with the line moving from -5-105 to -4-108. Models strongly favor Minn. Variables favor the Bears. Pu… Read More
2016-10-31 12:14
Friday the markets were up nicely but then something happened that jolted the markets into reality. News came out that the FBI was reopening the Clinton investigation as a result of em… Read More
2016-10-30 13:51
4:30 Update
Well I am sitting at 0-1-1 in my contest picks and sweating out San Diego +5.5. Does not look right here.
One game tonight in the NFL:
Phil
Dallas
Betting is 59% on the home favo… Read More
2016-10-29 13:36
Friday we had 2 one unit plays and went 1-1. Our winner was in the NHL on Winnipeg +157 1-0 and our loser was with Orlando +4 in the NBA losing 82-108.
What’s interesting about sports… Read More
2016-10-28 18:27
We had two one unit plays in the NHL and both lost. Islanders lost 2-4 and Buffalo lost 0-4.
So out of the gate, we are getting a slow start to the NHL and NBA. It’s a long seaso… Read More
2016-10-28 12:06
We saw what happened to the gap on Thursday. Filled and turned into a down day. The chop continues and I am at the point where even the small breakout trades I am making are going to be done… Read More
2016-10-27 18:51
3:30 Update
A Thursday night NFL Game:
Jacksonville
Tenn
Betting is 65% on the home favorite with the line moving from -3-128 to -3+109. Models favor Tenn, Variables are neutral, and public… Read More
2016-10-27 12:46
Do not get excited even though the market is gapping up .35%. I anticipate we are going to have more of the same until the election is past. And even then it is going to depend on the events… Read More
2016-10-26 17:34
3:55 Update
Game 2 of the World Series:
Cubs
Cleveland
Betting is 58% on the Road favorite with the line moving from -130 to -159. Models favor Cleveland slightly and variables are neutral o… Read More
2016-10-26 12:13
An hour before the open the market is off about .25%. It has recovered about 4 es points from the overnight lows.
The way I view the market right now is that it is oversold short term, seaso… Read More
2016-10-25 19:33
On Monday we had no plays but today so far I have sent out 3 one unit plays. In addition a big move game for MLB.
Regular season NBA begins tonight and along with the NHL in full swing, I su… Read More
2016-10-25 12:26
You have to hand it to the Russians. They do know how to have fun and joke around. The latest out of Russia is that they plan on using the USS Carney destroyer for target practice in the Bla… Read More
2016-10-24 17:59
3:30 Update
One game tonight in the NFL:
Houston
Denver
Betting is 64% on the Home Favorite with the line moving from -7.5+105 to -7.5-107. The line is -8 at most books. Models favor Houston… Read More
2016-10-24 12:48
Looking at the markets this morning it appears we are going to start the week in a positive vein. The markets are liking the idea of a Clinton win. There are many theories why and I will not… Read More
2016-10-23 12:48
Saturday turned out to be a good day going 3-0 on 1 unit plays. 2 were easy wins the other was a back door cover!
In college football Rutgers +17.5 won 32-34 . It was looking like we had ano… Read More
2016-10-22 18:33
Friday we had a 1/2 unit play in the NBA with Phil +8 and they not only covered but won the game 113-110. That was it for Friday as some games that were on the fence never panned out.
Today… Read More
2016-10-21 14:43
Thursday was a good day for several reasons in sports betting. First, of course, is winning my 1 unit play in the NHL with the Kings +135 4-3 in OT. And the 2nd was deciding not… Read More
2016-10-21 12:33
It should be an interesting day as today caps what historically has been a bullish week for the markets. Unlike many trends in sports betting that are worthless, historical trends in the mar… Read More
2016-10-20 21:58
4:30 Update:
1 game tonight in the NFL:
Bears
Green Bay
69% of the betting is on the home favorite with the line moving from -9-105 to -7.5+102. Models favor slightly Green Bay, Variables sl… Read More
2016-10-20 13:08
Historically this week is a strong one for the markets and it has played out nicely. But the week is coming to an end and it appears to me that the bullish week will soon turn into a dramati… Read More
2016-10-19 21:37
Tuesday turned out to be a busy day going 1-0 in MLB, 1-1 in the NBA and 0-2 in the NHL.
In MLB we had the Dodgers +109. It was also a big move game and by game time the dodgers were favored… Read More
2016-10-19 13:06
Tuesday had a lot of potential most of the morning. A large gap up, a continuation but then close to 11 or so a steady weakening into the close.
The only thing that I could see that mi… Read More
2016-10-18 15:55
MLB after a dreary season has broken out to the upside leaving us at +13 units so far on the season.
Monday we had a one 1 unit play in MLB with Cleveland +170 winning 4-2.
I had the fo… Read More
2016-10-18 12:47
After some disappointing days for the long side, the market is gapping up .60% an hour before the open. One thing to remember about breakout trades is large gap ups are not the best en… Read More
2016-10-17 16:11
4:30 Update
One game tonight in the NFL:
Jets
Arizona
Betting is 64% on Arizona with the line moving from -7.5-105 to -7-102. Clearly a reverse line move favoring Arizona. Models are split o… Read More
2016-10-17 12:52
We are coming out of the doldrums of the sell in may period soon and we will start to see historical periods that are very strong.
This week is one of them. Now that does not mean… Read More
2016-10-16 13:38
3:40 Update
Looks like I dodged a bullet with Cleveland coming back with a miracle cover making me 3-2 for this weekends picks in the Hilton Super Contest. That should be a small pickup from… Read More
2016-10-15 16:41
3:20 Update
So far today is shaping up to be a good one for subscribers in College Football. Vanderbilt +14 won the game outright and Northwestern +6.5 is leading 40-31 right at the end of t… Read More
2016-10-14 19:20
The first bets of the NBA season are in and we went 1-1 . Phil +5.5 lost and Toronto +5 won.
So far today we have a one unit play that has been sent out in the NFL along with a big move game… Read More
2016-10-14 12:53
The market was plunging on Thursday but then a remarkable thing happened. Out of nowhere buying came in cutting the loses to almost unchanged. Now, this morning we have a gap up 45 min… Read More
2016-10-13 18:19
This is the fastest out of the gate since I entered the Hilton NFL Super Contest. A long way to go but if I get my midseason monster run I will be in contention. Now its only getting that ru… Read More
2016-10-13 13:11
The market is in free fall this morning and at this pace ,it is looking like close to a 1% gap down on the open.
Who wouldn’t be nervous when you look at the news every day… Read More
2016-10-12 18:27
3:15 Update
One game tonight in College Football:
Appalachian State
UL Monroe
Betting is 68% on the Road Favorite with the line moving from -10.5-110 to -10-106. So just off the top, we have… Read More
2016-10-12 12:37
A brutal day on Monday with the markets gapping down and staying down all day. This morning an hour before the open we are unchanged after some gains in overnight trading.
It is looking to m… Read More
2016-10-11 16:53
Tampa covering last night gave me a 3-2 weekend for the Hilton contest which brings me to a 64% win record through week 5.
Not a bad place to be. 3-2 usually means a pickup so I would expect… Read More
2016-10-11 12:48
Monday a gap up that held. Today a gap down of about a 1/4 of a %.
These choppy markets are the most difficult to trade. No trends to hop onto. Breakouts get whipsawed more often. Mean… Read More
2016-10-10 16:02
3:00 Update
One game tonight in the NFL:
Tampa Bay
Carolina
Betting is 55% on the home favorite with the line moving from -4.5-101 to -5.5-107. Models favor Carolina, Variables strongly favo… Read More
2016-10-10 12:54
Democracy is still kicking with the debates as entertaining as they have been since I can remember. No matter what side of the isle you are on or which candidate you support there is somethi… Read More
2016-10-09 13:29
A good day in College Football on Saturday winning with BYU +6 31-14, Washington st +7 42-16 and Florida Int +5 35-21. Our loser was Arizona +9.5 23-36.
In MLB we had a 1 unit play on San Fr… Read More
2016-10-08 18:59
4:30 Update
One more game today involving matchups of top 25 teams:
#23 Florida State
#10 Miami Fl
Betting is 53% on the home Fav with the line moving from -2-106 to -1.5-106. Models favor M… Read More
2016-10-07 17:57
Lightning struck on Thursday where we have 2 one unit plays in MLB with both a win!!!
Toronto +125 had an easy 10-1 win and Cleveland +128 won 5-4. So a nice start to MLB pla… Read More
2016-10-07 13:23
Finally what all traders were anxiously awaiting for this morning happened. And we get a run to the upside by an equally big run to the downside and then back to the upside but with a lower… Read More
2016-10-06 18:24
3:45 Update
Two College football and one Pro game tonight:
Arizona
San Fran
Betting is 63% on the Road Favorite with the line moving from -2.5-101 to -3.5-110. Models slightly favor San fran… Read More
2016-10-05 19:26
3:10 update
Two games tonight:
San Fran
Mets
Betting is +65% on the road favorite with the line moving from Mets -109 to San Fran -116. Models are neutral on the game. Variables favor the Me… Read More
2016-10-05 12:37
I often wonder why the markets put so much emphasis on government reports on the economy from month to month. There are far more reliable statistics then what the government puts out. But it… Read More
2016-10-04 20:17
4:00 Update
One MLB game tonight:
Baltimore
Toronto
Betting is 46% on the home Favorite with the line moving from -148 to -167. That is a pretty large move contrary to the % of the betting o… Read More
2016-10-04 13:10
The big WikiLeaks announcement this morning was a nonannouncement. What I had anticipated as being a potential market moving event if the information was damaging enough for Clinton was mere… Read More
2016-10-03 15:14
3:30 Update
One game tonight in the NFL:
Giants
Minn
Betting is 56% on the Home Fav with the line moving from -3.5-105 to -4-101. Models favor the Giants, Variables favor the Giants … Read More
2016-10-03 12:58
The markets on Friday rebounded however the late plunge from the highs does not bode well for the market short term.
We are looking at a small gap down this morning but we are well off the o… Read More
2016-10-02 12:03
4:45 Update
A good day in the NFL with both of my 1 unit plays not only covering but winning outright. In addition with New Orleans making their comeback that leaves me with 3-1 going for th… Read More
2016-10-01 15:20
4:00 Update
Another top 10 matchup tonight:
# 3 Louisville
# 5 Clemson
Betting is 53% on the road favorite with the line moving Clemson -3.5+101 to Louisville -1-110. That is quite a move fo… Read More
2016-09-30 16:56
4:00
Two top ten teams face off tonight in college football:
#7 Stanford
# 10 Washington
Betting is 60% on the road dog with the line moving from -3-110 to -3.5-111. As most of you know that… Read More
2016-09-30 12:45
Europe was center stage yesterday and in particular Germany and if you want to narrow it down more Germany’s largest bank Deutsche Bank.
Es futures went as low as 2135 overnight but ha… Read More
2016-09-29 21:51
3:45 Update:
3 football games tonight:
Connecticut
#6 Houston
Betting is 77 % on the home favorite with the line moving from -27.5-106 to -27.5 -111. Models are neutral. Variables favor Hous… Read More
2016-09-29 13:11
It looks like more chop for the stock market this morning. The market 30 min before the open is looking to gap down around .20%.
My take is we are in an area that is neutral short term with… Read More
2016-09-28 21:59
Tuesday we had one 1 unit play and 1 1/2 unit play in MLB and both lost. Our 1 unit play on Tampa bay +154 lost 6-13 and our 1/2 unit play on Minn +146 lost 3-4.
We also had 4 big move games… Read More
2016-09-28 13:24
This is gong to be a very quick post as I have an appointment early this morning that I have to go to.
The idea of a government shutdown on Friday has not gotten any attention. I suspect tha… Read More
2016-09-27 17:05
Monday finished week 3 in the NFL Super Contest with Atlanta +3 winning the game easily 45-32. That puts me at 10-5 ending the first 3 weeks of the Hilton Super Contest. Historically I am a… Read More
2016-09-27 13:25
Another gap down this morning. And what makes it disconcerting if you are long is that the markets were up over .5% overnight. they have gone straight down since early morning. Free fall the… Read More
2016-09-26 16:28
3:15 Update
One game tonight in the NFL:
Atlanta
New Orleans
Betting is 64% on the Home Favorite with the line moving from -3-117 to -2.5-113. Most books have moved back to -3. My models are… Read More
2016-09-26 12:51
Things turned out well last week thanks to the Fed. It is funny how these patterns play themselves out to give swing traders the opportunity to make a profit.
This week we have a lot of Fed… Read More
2016-09-25 13:56
9:30 Update
Several interesting games in the NFL today:
San Fran
Seattle
Betting is 58% on the road dog with the line moving from -10.5+106 to -10.5 +103. My models point to Seattle and my v… Read More
2016-09-24 14:06
8:45 Update
Two top 20 teams face off this morning in College football with:
#12 Wisconsin
#8 Michigan St
Betting is 78% on the home Favorite Michigan State with the line moving from -6 to … Read More
2016-09-23 17:56
4:00 Update
Three college football games tonight:
Wyoming
E Mich
Betting is 63% on the road favorite with the line moving from -3.5 to -6. My models show a slight edge to E. Mich. Variables… Read More
2016-09-23 13:02
Well the worst week of the year turned into one of the best weeks thanks to the fed talking tough but then keeping rates steady. Expect more of the same going into the December meeting. Unle… Read More
2016-09-22 18:36
4:00 Update
Two football games tonight:
In the NFL:
Houston
NE
Betting is 60% on the road dog with the line moving from Houston 0-115 to NE -1 -108. Models favor NE and public betting favor… Read More
2016-09-22 12:57
It was the Fed to the rescue on Wednesday however there were 3 strong dissenters. Now that leaves us to a hike in December. The odds? Where I was saying virtually no chance at a rate hike in… Read More
2016-09-21 17:24
Tuesday we had a rare day with no plays.
We did have 2 big move games:
Tampa Bay -103
Atlanta +115
With the closing lines:
Tampa Bay +104
Atlanta +109
We split on the line moves.
Today… Read More
2016-09-21 13:00
Tuesday was a repeat of Monday with a large gap up. Breath extremely positive but after the 1st hour of trading the market reversed to the downside.
I had no trades yesterday as I had antici… Read More
2016-09-20 14:35
Monday we had 2 one unit plays in MLB and went 1-1. Miami +115 won 4-3 and Baltimore +115 lost 2-5.
We also had 3 big move games:
Baltimore +115
White sox +117
Miami +115
Closing Lines… Read More
2016-09-20 12:27
The week started out like it was going to break with history with the Dow and NASDAQ up nicely an hour or so into trading. But the completion of the market changed and all indexes took a nos… Read More
2016-09-19 15:40
4:00 Update
One game tonight in the NFL:
PHIL
Chicago
Betting is 49% on the Home Favorite with the line moving from -2.5-105 to -3-108. Many books you have to lay extra juice to lay the 3. M… Read More
2016-09-19 12:51
Historically this week has been the worst week of the year for the stock market and while the sample size is small (50 years) its still something to pay attention to.
The market is gaping up… Read More
2016-09-18 12:40
Saturday was a very busy day with 7 one unit plays. The busiest so far this year as I recall. At the end of the day we went 2-0 in MLB and 1-3-1 in College Football. And it could easily have… Read More
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