3:45 Update:
3 football games tonight:
Connecticut
#6 Houston
Betting is 77 % on the home favorite with the line moving from -27.5-106 to -27.5 -111. Models are neutral. Variables favor Houston. Public Betting slightly favors Connecticut. No edge I can see. Typically I like to take a look at fading nationally ranked teams but the line is much to high to consider taking. The fading ranked teams works out much better on smaller dogs. A pass
Kansas
Texas Tech
Betting is 79% on Texas Tech with the line moving from -28 -106 to -27.5-104. Models again are neutral,variables neutral, public betting favors Kansas. There is a reverse line move favoring kansas tonight however these reverse line moves tend to be more predictive on smaller dogs. Here not only do we have Texas Tech -27.5 but the total is 79.5. Both would make the reverse line move less predictive. So again I am passing on the game.
Our roller coaster ride in MLB continues. We had a great run to put us on the plus side for the season about 11 units. Now we have settled down a bit. Lets see if we break out to the upside or downside:)
Wednesday we had a 1 unit play along with a 1/2 unit play. The Yankees +130 as a one unit play won 5-3 while Detroit Under 8.5 as a 1/2 unit play lost 6-3.
In the NFL:
Miami
Cincinatti
Betting is 61% on Cinncinnati with the line moving from -7+106 to -7.5-107. That is a pretty significant move although not near as much as off -3. Models slightly favor Miami, Variables are neutral, Public betting slightly favors Miami. Without any variables to consider on the game I am passing. Variables and public betting combined are very strong indicators of value. I need both to consider a wager with models confirming. This game was not even under consideration for the Hilton NFL Super Contest. Although Miami would be as strong most likely as some of the other games I am considering for my 5th pick. Its just that I get another day to watch the numbers settle down a bit more which is always helpful! So I am passing completely on tonights game. If however you are thinking of taking Cinci with the public you might want to take a 2nd look at the game:)
Good Luck Tonight whichever sides your on.
Finally a correction in MLB yesterday. The Total on the Detroit game was not a complete game.So the game turned out to be a push rather than a loss.
We also had 4 big move games:
Pitt +143
Milw +193
Minn +117
Toronto -140
Closing lines:
Pitt +154
Milw +192
Minn +120
Toronto -145
Slightly negative against us most stayed about the same with pitt going against us. First time in awhile that we did not have a predictive day for the movements.
Today so far I have sent out 2 one unit plays. Also four big move games.
So far also I have sent out two one unit plays in College Football.
Also I received the following email that I think is instructive for all:
“Hi Rick,
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