90 Min before the open and SPY is up .20%. The positive news is QQQ up almost .60% which is a change from prior sessions. I see QQQ as the key as to when (not if) this Rally Continues.
I am long and looking to get longer today. We have seasonality at our back along with the outlook of a very positive business environment come January. Stifling regulations will be discarded quickly, Obamacare will be scuttled for something less punishing to the business environment, and Dodd Frank will be discarded into the trash heap of history. Just these 3 things alone will give a nice tailwind to the markets.
Now, there will be setbacks as we all have to remember that humans are involved. Whenever humans are behind the helm there is always an element of uncertainty and chance. In Washington that is even more true. In Washington the Human elements worst characteristics are on display. The quest for power, manipulation to promote hidden agendas, arm twisting , blackmail, bribery are all on display in Washington and neither party is immune as last I looked humans make up both parties:)
One item that has failed to get attention is the pork that is in almost every bill that goes through Congress. My guess is that will be the first war between the President and Congress. It has not come up yet so it will be interesting to see how close I get. Pork is government waste at its finest. If you followed the money to where pork spending really ends up at the final end it would be very revealing. But as I see it, Trump a businessman is not going to approve bills with a lot of pork in it. So its going to be a never-ending battle.
The other item I have talked about in the past is the crazy CEOs that are promoting anti trump conversations. The latest of course is Pepsi. To me it is so bizzare its difficult even to discuss it. The CEO job is to run its business in a manner that rewards the shareholders. What the Pepsi CEO is doing is alienating a substantial part of the population to make a political point. Now humans are capable of doing many bizarre things that are contrary to their interests. And I have seen this aspect of humans played out many times. But this one I still cannot get my head around.
But I am sure the CEO knows what she is doing as the stock is off almost %10 since she came out with her statements against Trump supporters. In addition the people that are advocating boycotting Pepsi and the many that are now refusing to buy their product will most likely not return. Its not like Pepsi is producing something that is necessary or that they do not have competition.
But as I said in the past, if this catches on it could be devastating for these companies. This human conduct ranks right up there with the most selfdestructive conduct I have seen. Its one thing to have self destructive behavior that harms you but to have it where it destroys a major company who you have been hired to run and maximize profits is another thing.
Enough of my comments for this morning. But this is a trend of your a long term investor you should be aware of. If the CEO of a company whose stock you own feels it necessary to jump into the political merry go round sell that stock ASAP and look for a better place to put your money.
Or better yet if your quick enough, the second a CEO in a major company starts in with taking political sides by some puts in the company as more likely than not their stock will plummet as Pepsi has.
Today as I said I will be in buying mode. As far as mean reversion, not a chance I will be shorting this market any time soon.
One final thing, I have been getting quite a few emails regarding where to start to learn about investing. There are a multitude of sites on the internet that dealing with learning investing as there are a number of books. Let me start by saying 90% are catastrophic for your investing wealth. 8% will teach you something but still not get you to the point of being able to make money. Then there is the 1 or 2 % that are stellar for what they do.
I have listed 5 sites to the right that I feel are in the 2% category. But if your really wanting to learn go to :
- #1 Tradeciety
- #2 Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.
And go back and start from Post #1 on each site. Take notes, write down questions that come up, and learn. You will be amazed at the wealth of information on both of these sites. Steenbarger has been around a long time and he is the best I have come across for learning the markets along with understanding them. Tradeciety is a more recent site into the investing environment of the net. But its hands down the best I have seen for trading techniques to use in your trading. So you have a big picture and a hand on picture to balance your learning.
And its free! The wealth of information on both sites surpasses many of the sites that charge from 1000 to 10000 to learn their secrets. Save you money and get started. If you are predisposed to learning investing you will not regret it.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
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