You have to go back more than half a century to find a longer streak of months with unemployment at or below 4%. Or as the memes and journalists desperate for clicks like to describe it, "Mi… Read More

The Dunbar Number is 150. It is an estimate of the number of people one might have in a social circle.If we go back 150 lifetimes - assuming 40 year life expectancies - we go back 6,000 year… Read More

The Biden presidency is setting a bar for economic performance that has never before been hit and is unlikely to be matched again. This is not by chance.A few things to remember about Biden… Read More

In 1861,March 4, Lincoln was inaugurated for his 1st term as presidentApril 12, Confederates fired on Fort Sumter, officially beginning the Civil War.Lincoln had 39 days of peace in his firs… Read More

It was the British and Dutch who became the wealthiest communities in the world by pioneering globalization. BREXIT was a decisive vote to withdraw from the world as part of the retreat from… Read More

One of the most underreported facts of the modern world is simply this:communities that know how to create great paying jobs overwhelmingly reject Trump's policies. Communities that can't cr… Read More

Imagine a map with all its neat lines and borders, like a giant puzzle where each piece is a different country, clearly marked and separate. That's a state, like the one you live in, defined… Read More

Trump began selling Bibles this week to raise money for his trial for using campaign funds to pay for sex with a porn star.There is nothing else you need to know about the intersection of fo… Read More

Daniel Kahneman died this week. He won a Noble Prize in Economics made remarkable by the fact that not only did he not have a degree in economics, but he never even took an economics class.H… Read More

Benjamin Franklin was involved with two great shifts in power: the creation of the world's first modern democracy and experiments that demystified lightning, transforming it from divine jud… Read More

Here's a money-saving tip. Next time you see an ad for an enticing product, just re-enact the ad. Skip the product altogether and go straight for the joy the product delivers."Should we go… Read More

Once upon a time, the first draft of history - our newspaper articles that let us know each day about what was happening - was written by aspiring novelists. Ernest Hemingway, Mark Twain, Ch… Read More

Physico-theology, an idea that gained prominence in the 17th and 18th centuries, refers to a theological doctrine that seeks to demonstrate the existence and attributes of God through the ob… Read More

Trump warned that if he is not elected there will be a bloodbath. A clear threat to again resort to violence as when he lost in 2020. Later he claimed that he was talking about what would ha… Read More

At today's market close, the 50 most valuable companies around the world had a combined market cap of $27.9 trillion.Portion of total from companies founded inthe US: 89% ($24.8 trillion)the… Read More

Those of you who find this kind of thing interesting might find this fascinating.What is good? A negative number. It shows that the unemployment rate dropped during that presidency.What is b… Read More

4 years ago today ...President Trump declared a national emergency in response to coronavirus on March 13, 2020, to provide emergency funding of up to $50 billion to state and local governme… Read More

Trump is the first president to use the words bleed, carnage, stolen, tombstones, and trapped in an inaugural address, a man who tried to overthrow democracy to stay in office after losing o… Read More

A simple - possibly flawed - explanation for Trump's appeal: when people are frustrated with institutions they turn to a tyrant to blow up the bureaucracy.People who don't know any history m… Read More

On average, you get a wage hike for switching jobs. August of 2022, though, offered by the far largest premium for switching jobs, an average of 2.8% bigger raise than if you'd stayed in th… Read More

Real GDP growth in 2023 was 3.1%.The three years with highest real GDP growth in the last 19 years:2021: 5.8%2005: 3.5%2023: 3.1%In simpler terms, GDP growth over the last few years - adjust… Read More

Silicon Valley wages continue to be the highest in the country, the only 3 counties where wages average more than twice what they average across the whole country.Raw data:https://www.bls.go… Read More

This amuses me far more than it should.Everyday - all day - stock prices bounce up and down. I've wondered how long it'll be before all prices behave like that. Now Wendy's is adopting "dyna… Read More

I'm coining a few words today.Petipreneur, noun. A person who engages in small acts of entrepreneurship that result in new routines, practices, or relationships that have the potential to sp… Read More

His creative potential was never realized for the simple fact that he never could decide between doing documentaries about fictional work or fictionalized versions of documentaries. All he… Read More

Trump can't win with just the support of the MAGA boys who thrill at Donald's casual racism and misogyny and enabling the invasion of Western Europe. He needs votes from reasonable Republica… Read More

"Truth and trust, words that come from the same root, naturally go together. One cannot have trust in a society where no one is speaking the truth. and one cannot report truth to a society w… Read More

"The engineering of consent is the very essence of the democratic process, the freedom to persuade and suggest.""We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested… Read More

Many nerds like me tend to think that politics is about facts and policies and programs. Here's a counterargument to that.Hillary Clinton was more prepared and knowledgeable than any candida… Read More

Most people around the globe today are better off than our ancestors because citizens and workers in early industrial societies organized, challenged elite-dominated choices about technology… Read More

In romance novels:"It's a beautiful, sunny day Heathcliff. My heart is full. Please kiss me!"Heathcliff, mournfully, "Someday we are all going to die."  Meanwhile, in economic repo… Read More

"A federal appeals court on Tuesday rejected former President Donald J. Trump’s claim that he was immune from prosecution for any crimes committed while in office." - NY Times, 2/6/202… Read More

Just heard a new twist on an old story.Put a potato, an egg, and a coffee bean into boiling water for a time.What happens to the first two you've probably heard before. The egg is made hard… Read More

I don't pretend to have any special insights into financial markets and inflation so feel free to roll your eyes at this and scroll on to that funny meme about the Super Bowl but ...Fed Chai… Read More

The 4th Quarter of 2023 was almost comically good. (All averages are for this 21st century.)Inflation:target: 2%actual: 2%Avg: 2.6%Job creation for quarter:494kAvg: 275kUnemployment rate:3.7… Read More

We're just a couple of weeks away from the Year of the Dragon. The dragon is the most promising - and definitely the coolest looking - of the 12 Chinese animals. February 10 marks the start… Read More

Spot the patterns.It seems to me that there are 2.1. Deficits grow under Republican presidents and shrink under Democratic presidents.2. Job creation is stronger during Democratic presidenci… Read More

"America is too great for small dreams."- Ronald Reagan“We’re a nation whose economy is collapsing into a cesspool of ruin. We have become a drug infested, crime-ridden nation, w… Read More

Haecceity is a term from medieval scholastic philosophy, first coined by followers of Duns Scotus to denote a concept that he seems to have originated: the irreducible determination of a thi… Read More

Initial claims for unemployment came in at their lowest level in 18 months. The last time they were lower than that - lower than September of 2022 - was in the late 1960s - when the labor fo… Read More

American women don't like Trump and Trump doesn't like American women. Donald has been married three times, once to an American for 4 years. Every other woman he marries is an immigrant. He… Read More

Pre-pandemic2019 - low inflation and unemployment and 2 million jobs createdPandemic2020 - drop in demand results in huge layoffs and drop in household spending translates into a sharp rise… Read More

It is 2024 and Americans will choose between Trump and Biden to be president from 2025 to 2029.Trump - Spent a record amount of time as president tweeting, watching TV and golfing. (Tru… Read More

2022 wage information (does not include rental income, profits, earnings or gains from the sale of assets, etc.)Of Americans who reported an income on W-2 forms,90% earned at least $5,000.50… Read More

In a parallel universe.On January 6th of 2021, after losing her Democratic majority and Speakership in what she insisted was a rigged election, Nancy Pelosi held a rally that she concluded b… Read More

Since Nixon - who quipped, "We're all Keynesians now" - the simplest distinction between Republicans and Democrats has been the belief in Keynesian economics.Keynes was a savvy investor who… Read More

 Nobody knows just how many gods and beliefs were smuggled in through Ellis Island as the millions of immigrants came from various lands to live here in the land of religious freedom.&n&hell…Read More

 So, do we believe in free will? No. There's no profit in it. But reasonably priced will? That we can support and even offer at a low monthly fee, starting at just $9.99 Read More

In the future, we will have 2 technologies that will change norms: self-driving cars and free energy. One of the consequences of this? Dogs will regularly be out "driving" around town, amus… Read More

I'm going to make an economic forecast for 2024. Back in November of 2016, with Trump coming into office, I made this forecast. (The full forecast is https://rwrld.blogspot.com/2016/11/… Read More

The market volatility of the last few years has obscured a simple fact: at the end of 2023 the NASDAQ closed only 3% higher than it closed in 2020. That's the return on a savings accou… Read More

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I was tempted to generate a forecast for 2024, but then I remembered that in Dante's Inferno he puts prognosticators in the eighth circle of hell. Fortune tellers and astrologers have their… Read More

Consider a smart phone a metaphor for the potential of the individual.In the 1940s, a smart phone would have been both fascinating and largely worthless. With no internet, no phone network… Read More

Here's a list of occupations for San Diego County.Curiously, radiologists top the list for average annual salary, followed by cardiologists and then by psychiatrists. So the order of value a… Read More

The second amendment has been taken out of context and been applied in ways never intended by the founding fathers. It has almost nothing to do with the individual’s right to own weapo… Read More

Trump can't run for president in Colorado.Once upon a time, you could change national rulers by violently rising up against the king. At that point in history, there was a clear bargain: you… Read More

Cells, limbs, or organs might possess a form of consciousness, but it differs significantly from our collective human consciousness. Our experience, such as feeling a warm mug of hot chocola… Read More

When he was president, Trump had a button on his desk that he pressed to order a diet coke be delivered to him. Of all the magic buttons a president might have on his desk, this was the one… Read More

I know that some of you like facts. Bless your noggin.Most recent numbers:Inflation (October): 0%Real GDP Growth (Q3): 5%Unemployment Rate (November): 3.7%Change in NASDAQ in last year: +31%… Read More

It is one thing to think that the economy might get better and have controversy around that FORECAST. I'm trying to remember when the economy has been this great and there is controversy aro… Read More

For the most part, I limit my forecasts to "now is better than the past and the future will be better than now." Rather uncharacteristically, I'm going to forecast a bull market over the nex… Read More

Now that the pandemic is over and the world has gone back to real world interactions, New York County has again taken the top spot for average income, surpassing Silicon Valley counties.So m… Read More

If communists took over Exxon and "struggled" to appoint a CEO, to make and execute plans to increase profits, to invest, to trim costs, no one would say, "Oh. They're so incompetent ." It w… Read More

Isaiah Berlin argued that the Enlightenment faith in reason was changed by Romanticism. This has profound consequences for democracy.Enlightenment trust in reason suggests that reality is so… Read More

Don't be an idiot.Plato recognized that power could easily corrupt in politics and was skeptical that good men would be attracted to politics, given its state. Plato has a character named So… Read More

“My problem is, for the next 50 years, when people think of progressive politics, they’re gonna think of you. They’re gonna think of you and your idiot followers passing ou… Read More

The Misery Index might be the simplest measure of how Americans feel about the economy. It is the sum of the unemployment rate and inflation. If either or both of these are high, Americans a… Read More

It is not true that things have never been worse. It is true that during your lifetime politics have been more divided than it has during the lifetime of any previous generation of Americans… Read More

Only once in its 100+ year history have we let a woman head the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve Chair is responsible for monetary policy which has an influence over important things lik… Read More

Such a curious reason to declare independence. It's not a guarantee of or a promise of. Jefferson and rest left Britain simply to pursue happiness."We hold these truths to be self-evident, t… Read More

Here are some facts to share at your 4th of July celebration that will make everyone love you. (Or inspire them to declare independence from you and breakaway violently, almost like a sponta… Read More

The NRA has distorted the intention of the 2nd amendment and glosses over the historical realities and philosophies of the founding fathers. The 2nd amendment was never intended to give any… Read More

One year ago, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade, a Supreme Court decision from 1973 that let a woman and her doctor choose whether to continue a pregnancy.There are up to one billion s… Read More

Between 1900 and 2000, a few related, wonderful things happened.For one, the nature of work and what it meant to be a human changed. Machines provided force and humans provided knowledge. Th… Read More

Sunday, 9 April 1865, Robert E. Lee surrendered, ending the Civil War.Saturday, 15 April 1865, Abraham Lincoln died after being shot the night before.Thursday, 2 July 1964 - 99 years after t… Read More

Only 6% of people who've heard about cryptocurrency are very or extremely confident in it. 80% of women say they are not confident in it, as opposed to 71% of men.[Details here:https://www.p… Read More

The 2023 job market is incredible.With upwards revisions to March and April, this May jobs report adds 432,000 new jobs to the 2023 total. The average for the first 5 months of 2023 is 314,0… Read More

“You people seem to think that we have to start with reality. But we’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality &n&hell…Read More

Debt created the United States of America. It was very expensive to go to war against the greatest empire in the world and newly independent colonialists ended the war with about $80 million… Read More

How did the party of Lincoln degenerate into the party of Trump? Trump who was born rich and presided over years of peace and prosperity punctuated by a dozen angry tweets every day. The man… Read More

 Some of you like data that helps to inform your worldview. This post is for you. Here is data comparing the economy during six presidencies by four measures: inflation, per capita GDP… Read More

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is toying with the possibility of blowing up the global financial system by refusing to raise the debt limit. It's a terrorist act that threatens to eradicate te… Read More

1Q GDP equates to annual GDP of $26 trillion.As a component of that, non-defense federal government investments are 4% of private investments.That's incredibly puny if the game is to grow th… Read More

We make our institutions and then they make us.The political crisis we face is so pervasive that it is almost invisible: Americans have lost confidence in institutions. Every institution. Ch… Read More

Markets will eventually come back from last year's dismal performance. For those of you tempted by bitcoin rather than stocks, here are some things to consider.One, bitcoin can never scale a… Read More

I had a conversation with a computer engineering professor about a week ago. He said he was skeptical about production chips getting smaller than 3 nanometers. IBM came up with a 2 nanometer… Read More

Fordism made previously expensive products affordable. The price of the Model T fell from $850 to $260 in 15 years.What used to be so expensive that only a fraction of the population could a… Read More

Dee Hock died last year. He did in the 1960s what every crypto entrepreneur aspired to do this decade. He created a global systems for transferring money and making purchases across state an… Read More

File under facts you won't hear because they aren't upsetting.Since 2Q 2011, the wealth held by Americans in the bottom 50% of households has gone up from $262 billion to $4.5 trillion - so… Read More

I've previously posted about my amazement at the AI that has recently been released into the wild of the internets and how convinced I am that this will be looked at as an inflection point i… Read More

"I was looking for a job, and then I found a jobAnd heaven knows I'm miserable now"- Morrisey and the SmithsThe misery index is the sum of the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation - e… Read More

Abraham Lincoln and Charles Darwin were both born on February 12, 1809. Lincoln is still the only president to hold a patent, which is a delightfully appropriate thing for the president who… Read More

The idea of zero-sum thinking stifles economic progress by fostering the notion that resources are scarce and that one person's gain must come at the expense of another's loss. This mindset… Read More

The data that tells the story about the economy is generally much better than the stories you hear about the economy. GDP grew in the last half of 2022 at an annual rate of 3.1% - a rat… Read More

Musk points out in a response to a random tweet that it isn't possible for him to fix Twitter overnight given, you know, he has 2 other companies to run. Plus, the 9 kids. And all the tweeti… Read More

The gaming industry is now bigger than the movies and music industries combined. And I think it is just getting started in terms of impact.One scenario that I think is distinctly plausible?… Read More

Another great jobs report: 223,000 jobs created and unemployment down to 3.5%. The unemployment rate has hit 3.5% 7 times in the last 40 months - 3x in the last six months. How extraordinary… Read More

I'm suddenly far more optimistic about the new year now that we're back down to just one pope.Benedict was the first pope to retire in 6 centuries when he resigned about a decade ago. His de… Read More

2022 was a year of huge stories. Huge. In technical advances, MRNA therapy got its first positive results with a cancer vaccine, we sustained nuclear fusion for one-billionth of a second, an… Read More