2019-05-17 15:24
Debt saturation, an economic term
commonly used for today’s developed markets where the excess-liquidity-led more-debt-less-growth
conundrum is faced, is becoming more increasingly rel… Read More
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Turkish Market News — Independent Source For Mar Blog
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2018-01-11 19:50
One immutable rule in developing nations is the existence of politicians who palpably need fast economic activity to keep its voter base strong. In Turkey, this is absolutely proven to be ri… Read More
2018-01-08 05:34
‘Hate to Say I Told You So’ was one of the most iconic songs in early 2000s, performed by the band called The Hives. Now the phrase also reflects my views on the evolution of Tur… Read More
2017-08-02 16:40
Turkey posted its first negative GDP growth figure in seven years in Q3 2016 when it abruptly announced a methodology change in the calculation of the macro economic variable just the day be… Read More
2017-07-11 05:33
Turkish economy has appeared to be regaining momentum and followed the path of recovery after a dismal record in the second half of last year. After 1Q17 when Turkey posted a growth rate tha… Read More
2017-05-09 05:46
The following is an update about April inflation print in Turkey (source: Hurriyet Daily News):
Turkey’s annual inflation rate increased in April, reaching its highest level in around… Read More
2017-05-08 05:24
Since late 2010, the Central Bank of Turkey has been employing unconventional monetary policy tools primarily for price stability, and creating an environment conducive for economic developm… Read More
2017-05-02 05:09
Turkish government introduced a new facility so-called ‘Credit Guarantee Fund’ a couple of months ago to boost the economic activity by spurring lending to small and medium size… Read More
2017-04-20 05:14
Construction sector has maintained a significant role for Turkish economy in recent years as house prices in mega cities have skyrocketed and government sponsored large projects have been un… Read More
2017-03-28 05:04
Q4 2016 GDP data will be posted this Friday, probably mark a recovery from Q3 when a negative figure was recorded as the consensus estimates signal a 1.9% annual change in GDP, corresponding… Read More
2017-03-22 05:46
Depending on external finance has been the case for almost any emerging market, but in Turkey it is life-sustaining given the country’s external balance profile, which has always had a… Read More
2017-03-20 05:05
Turkish statistics office released December 2016 jobs report which suggested that the unemployment rate at 12.7% hit a 7-year high as well as a seasonally adjusted figure at 12%. More import… Read More
2017-03-15 05:25
Inflation in Turkey has not necessarily been a special case, but is likely to be given its current levels. We previously noted that annual CPI growth will see a double-digit figure in months… Read More
2017-03-06 05:34
Having lived up to all the hype, Turkey’s February headline inflation printed a double-digit figure. Moreover, further upside movement should be expected as core indicators, the negati… Read More
2017-02-13 05:52
It is time for an update after a hiatus of several weeks on the blog. In our previous two articles, we put emphasis on Q3 GDP growth which posted a bad reading as the economic output growth… Read More
2016-12-21 05:36
One of the key issues the world economy faces today is declining productivity. At this juncture, Turkey seems to be obliged to deal with a structural headwind stemming from its weakness labo… Read More
2016-12-12 14:14
First, The Revision
Turkey’s official statistics office released major revisions to its national accounts data as the data was rebased such that the components are weighted to compile… Read More
2016-12-12 05:52
To date we have posted two articles specifically focused on differentiates between public and private banks. As they have been in many developing economies ─particularly in India─……Read More
2016-12-09 14:46
We have been closely monitoring the banking sector in Turkey as the industry is usually at the focal point for investors looking at the country. Previously we analyzed the declining earnings… Read More
2016-12-06 05:25
Declining volumes in currency trading has been an overriding theme as banks have been subject to stricter regulations on their trading activities. It is early to talk about the recent Trumpf… Read More
2016-12-06 05:07
Turkey has been an interesting experience for economists in many aspects. A central bank keeping the real interest rates extremely low in a period when the country suffers from savings gap a… Read More
2016-12-05 05:43
Previously we noted that Turkey debt will draw attention as global monetary conditions were set to be less friendly to developing economies than it had been in the past. Following the Trump… Read More
2016-11-28 11:25
The monetary policy committee raised 1-week rate by 50 bps to 8% and the upper band by 25 bps to 8.50% vs a consensus expectations split between a 25 bps hike in the 1-week repo change and n… Read More
2016-11-16 11:15
There is substantial uncertainty stemming from several factors pressuring the core indicators, both to the upside and downside. On one hand, we have slowing economic activity with faster tha… Read More
2016-11-16 05:26
The unemployment rate in Turkey rose by 1.2 percentage points y/y to 11.3% while the non-farm unemployment rate climbed to 13.7%. This August job report marked another step in deceleration p… Read More
2016-11-10 16:27
September industrial production came in 4.2% y/y well below the market consensus of 2.5% y/y, driving the 3-*month moving average to the negative territory for the first time since the globa… Read More
2016-11-10 15:43
S&P upgraded Turkey’s outlook from negative to stable with a maintain a credit rating of BB which is two notches below the investment grade, citing government policy gradually refo… Read More
2016-11-07 15:28
Headline inflation in October came out at 1.44% m/m pointing to an annual inflation rate of 7.16%, fell behind the expectations of 1.58% but slightly higher than our estimate of 1.40%. Meanw… Read More
2016-11-02 11:39
Turkey is set to post one of the weakest GDP growth readings in Q3 since the global financial crisis. In a previous post, we mentioned that the quarter ended September may not mark the begin… Read More
2016-10-18 05:54
Turkish government lowered its 2016 GDP growth target to 3.2% in its Medium Term Plan about a month ago. Also, the results of the central bank’s survey of expectation point to a same l… Read More
2016-10-12 05:50
Turkish lira has been particularly weak as of the beginning of October. As prospects of a Federal Reserve rate in December hike boosted again, many emerging market currencies is doomed to be… Read More
2016-10-11 05:12
Rising by 2% y/y, industrial production index posted a subdued performance in seasonally and working-day adjusted series in August, after a decline of 4% in July. The sub-index of manu… Read More
2016-09-26 12:54
In a widely expected and almost inevitable move, Moody’s downgraded Turkey’s sovereign rating by one notch to Ba1 (junk level) on Friday, quoting the increase in the risks relate… Read More
2016-09-16 11:37
Turkey’s real GDP grew by 3.1% y/y in Q2, below the market consensus of 3.7% and our estimation of 3.4%. Of that growth number, 3.4% and 1.7% came from household and public consumption… Read More
2016-09-08 05:03
Turkey’s brokerages faced sharp trading falls in a tough climate last year of which 30% reported losses during the first half. That said, we had seen some downsizing-related layoffs as… Read More
2016-09-07 05:13
Headline inflation surprised on the downside in August with m/m realization of -0.29% against the market expectations for a flat reading. Annual inflation lowered to 8.05% from 8.79% a month… Read More
2016-08-26 05:14
Turkey’s growth has been remarkable resilient recently. While some of the biggest developing has entered recession, and some other has just muddled along, Turkey has managed to sustain… Read More
2016-08-22 14:02
Turkish banks enjoyed the seconds earnings season of this year, as their profitability metrics hit two-year highs on the back of strong operational performance. The downward trend for Turkis… Read More
2016-07-27 05:59
In a recent note, we mentioned that now may be the moment to get in on value in Turkish stocks, particularly in industrial stocks. Following that, Borsa Istanbul Industrials Index (BIST:XUSI… Read More
2016-07-22 09:12
On July 15, there was a strategically inept and thankfully failed coup attempt in Turkey, which, in fact, was destined for failure and would lead nothing but a civil war. It was that latest… Read More
2016-07-04 07:15
Sahibinden.com is an online shopping in platform in which people and businesses buy and sell real estate, cars and broad variety of goods and services, headquartered in Istanbul and owned by… Read More
2016-06-29 12:09
Turkish central bank has been failed to use its monetary policy tools to maintain low inflation. The headline inflation rate has been extremely volatility due to fluctuating food prices, whi… Read More
2016-06-13 11:09
Turkish economy grew by 4.8% in Q1 2015, above the consensus and our expectations of 4.4%. In seasonally adjusted terms, the economy expanded by 3% q/q. Household consumption expenditures, w… Read More
2016-05-23 05:09
Turkish banks have outperformed its EM peers on a ytd basis (see the chart below), as MSCI EM Financials index took a huge hit in the first two weeks of this year arising out of a massive se… Read More
2016-05-20 05:44
Good News or Bad News
Labor market data for February 2016 was released early this week. The unemployment rate was down 20 basis points on monthly basis to 10.9% according to the official fig… Read More
2016-05-18 13:18
The results of Turkish central bank’s survey of expectations released which showed that participants were expecting to see monthly reading of 0.65% in May inflation. Having said that… Read More
2016-05-11 05:47
At a time when some argue that Turkey is on a path to being more state-sponsored economy owing to the Treasury guaranteeing large scale projects, the performance comparison of public and pri… Read More
2016-05-10 05:36
The industrial production data released by Turkish Stats Office yesterday highlighted that the economic activity in March was particularly strong in March. The IP index was up by 2.6% y/y de… Read More
2016-05-09 05:51
Standard & Poor’s revised its outlook Turkey to stable from negative and affirmed its BB+ FC and BBB- LC sovereign credit ratings after the close of the market on Friday. The actio… Read More
2016-05-09 05:51
Standard & Poor’s revised its outlook Turkey to stable from negative and affirmed its BB+ FC and BBB- LC sovereign credit ratings after the close of the market on Friday. The actio… Read More
2016-05-04 06:14
April inflation was another negative surprise and the drop was sharper than expected for the second month in succession. The reading of 0.78% dragged the annual rate down to 6.6%, primarily… Read More
2016-04-22 05:02
Turkish central bank cut its overnight marginal funding rates by 75 basis points in the past two monetary policy meetings in an effort to simplify its interest rate structure as the volatili… Read More
2016-04-06 05:25
Macroeconomic Outlook
After years of full of challenges, Pakistani economy is now out of the woods with high-single digit GDP growth rates projected for the upcoming two years. Even if the c… Read More
2016-04-05 09:58
Consumer Price Index inflation in Turkey surprised significantly on the downside in March on the back of falling food prices. According to the data released by the official statistics office… Read More
2016-04-04 06:49
At 4 percent, Turkey GDP’s growth rate remained robust despite a challenging year, primarily driven by strong private and public consumption, and higher gross fixed capital formation i… Read More
2016-03-09 06:42
Company Overview
Tat Gida Sanayi AS, formerly Tat Konserve Sanayi AS, (BIST:TATGD) is a Turkey-based food processing company. The company engages in producing and marketing tomato sauce, tom… Read More
2016-03-08 06:10
Bad loans in Turkey soared 3.6% m/m in January caused concerns rising around the asset quality in the financial sector. Even worse, annual change was 32.6% which was the highest figure recor… Read More
2016-03-07 06:32
Turkish banks which have spent years with high profits generated in the past, only managed a ROE of 10.6% (10-year average was 16.1%), well below the business’ cost of capital of at le… Read More
2016-03-03 06:32
Migros (BIST:MGROS) has recently underperformed the broad market despite the retailers specifically showed recently during the same timeframe. On a ytd basis, the shares fell by more than 12… Read More
2016-02-25 06:39
Time and time again, we concerned ourselves with volume growth trends in Turkish banking spectrum. As is the case with any emerging market, credit growth in Turkey has been phenomenal since… Read More
2016-02-24 06:39
Turkish MPC remained on hold once again yesterday as one-week repo rate, or so-called policy rate stood at 7.5%, along with overnight lending and borrowing rates at 10.75% and 7.25%. The cen… Read More
2016-02-17 16:05
After seven years of international sanctions, Iran is once again open for business. The end of sanctions is a lifesaver for the economy as billions of dollars’ worth of frozen Iranian… Read More
2016-01-31 16:26
Turkish banks are up 3.5% on average year-to-date with tailwinds from a better outlook for 2016 and easing regulation standards. However, since last year, Turkish banks have performed remark… Read More
2016-01-16 16:06
There has never been a chart pattern idea for swing traders on this blog. Even if I always been skeptical about the chartist stuff, I admit that from time to time it would be a guide for cur… Read More
2016-01-10 16:09
Since 2006 Turkish central bank has officially been in pursuance of price stability after reforms such as law amendments regarding the formation of the bank differ the way the bank function… Read More
2016-01-09 16:19
The link between extremism and unemployment has been a long-standing debate. Some sees the deterioration in the labor markets as one of the major causes behind the spread of terrorism and ex… Read More
2015-12-21 06:00
In the years since the global financial crisis many economies have face slower expansions in some key components of potential output growth, and following that, lower potential growth has em… Read More
2015-12-02 08:31
Time and time again I have been directing sharp criticism for the relatively poor financial performance, and more importantly, for the industry’s lack of focus on low profitability. In… Read More
2015-11-06 06:27
In a country where average maturity of deposits is very short, liquidity risk management for financial instructions is of paramount importance. Most particularly, in Turkey, a country seekin… Read More
2015-11-04 06:02
As expected yearly inflation fell in October as temporarily weaker food and energy prices more than offset the impact of the foreign exchange pass through (1.5% m/m, 7.6% y/y). The figures s… Read More
2015-10-06 08:01
One of the key market themes that marked this year has been the bank stocks trading with low multiples and the advancement in the industrials. Time and time again we uttered that the golden… Read More
2015-09-29 06:52
Despite the ongoing still-decent GDP growth, the economic outlook of Turkey is not in brilliant shape. Following a robust start to 2015 for the economy, the current focus of consumers in vie… Read More
2015-09-21 06:53
Turkish banks have been lending to energy industry firms at a rapid clip. The share of the industry in total corporate loans rose from 3% in 2007 to 7.4% in 2H15, and this came amid a lendin… Read More
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