I am burned out on Nashville's self obsession. If I hear the infamous "85 people a day are moving here" one more time I will stab them in the eye.
There is little to substantiate that actual number as it is pulled out of someones ass as a way of validating the rising costs of living here without raising pay. Seriously they believe that the 5% another vague number coming from the Chamber as cited as the "cost of living is 5% less here" explains that.
For a town with as many Universities that surround it they are hideously bad with numbers. To have 85 people a day MOVE here that would be over 31000 people a month; this would mean over 372,000 people are moving here annually. Really, I see says the blind man.
Okay so I read this article which in convoluted fashion sort of kind of negates that figure:
But in the view of Nicholas J. Lindeman, economic and systems data analyst with Nashville Area Metropolitan Planning Organization, that 85 people a day estimate doesn't present the complete picture.
His analysis of five years of census data through mid-year 2015 shows a net migration of roughly 58 people a day into the Nashville region. That's based on total population growth of 159,449 people across the 14-county region in the past five years, which includes a net migration of 105,958 plus a net natural increase of 51,809 people taking into account both births and deaths.
At the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce, Vice President of Research Garrett Harper cites a rate of 71 people per day as the most recent figure based on last year's net growth of more than 26,062 people moving in and out of the Nashville region. Add the number of people born or who died here and that number would increase to nearly 100 a day.
"While the 100 per day is the highest in numerical terms in recent years, it's not quite the highest in percentage terms," Harper said. "What we're experiencing now is comparable to what we were experiencing in 2006 and 2007. It's not very different in level of growth for those two years."In Davidson County, the total population growth trend has varied from year to year, according to Gross' analysis that shows 27 people moving to the county daily last year versus 26 the previous year and only 21 between 2010 and 2011.
Meanwhile, on average more than half of migration into Davidson County over the past five years — more than 60 percent last year — has been international migration. Also, just over one out of five of the net migration into the overall Metro area has come from overseas.
"We're becoming more diverse in terms of our art and culture, in terms of the labor force and the types of services we provide," Gross said. "It's affecting all different parts of our lives."
As an undergraduate economics major in college, one of the first lessons I learned is that statistics is never an exact science. "It's not about the actual numbers, it's about direction of the numbers — are they going up or down?" economics analyst Wald said.
So the reality is that we have a mixed migrant issue that includes births and relocations from other counties in the region. Note they don't count the immense amount of students who "relocate" here for the duration of their education and there is little data to indicate if they in fact remain in the region or leave upon completion of their degree. Again, we are a little vague with facts and figures here as that would require well truth and logic, two elements sorely lacking here; note the final comment from the economic analyst - numbers are not actual. HUH?
Last night a local broadcaster ran a Town Hall. Now when I think of a Town Hall I think of a panel of experts and officials meeting the town and responding to questions from both the moderator and the town. Well no. This is Nashville so this meant a motley crew of legitimate officials and some whom I have no idea who they are and their relevance to the subject regarding the Growth of Nashville. However, one essential element was missing - the actual members of the town. Okay, then.
Mostly it centered on the favorite subject here in Nashville, "whose gonna pay for it?" query which beings and ends any question or demand for change. We want low to no taxes and if that means having no sidewalks, mass transit, clean water and decent schools then so be it!!
In this non town town hall they did discuss mass transit but I have no idea what else they discussed as they kept going back to taxes and that Tennessee is a no income tax state. Yes so was Washington but we did not charge tax on food and we did vote by "county" to fund schools, buses and other matters of import. This is a concept new to the area and something they are exploring. What that means is unclear as well this is Tennessee and details are for well later.
The area is full of "dis"information as very little of the local news is actually news. I have never heard any international coverage and national coverage is also fairly non existent. They do however love their crime reports. And yes I watch all three networks in an attempt to gouge any semblance of journalism of which I can safely say - no. And yes the focus is largely on black crime and when they do profile a white criminal my first thought is that it must of been a low crime day.
The news rarely reports "investigations" and when they do they speak to only business executives or politicians who spout their standard fare. When they do speak to the general public I am not clear where they found these people and if this is again a selective opportunity to explain Darwinism at its most tragic.
The move of Bridgestone to the "downtown" corridor of Nashville is again a triumph and statement of growth. There is no discussion that the downtown of Nashville is next to non existent. That aside from the issues of infrastructure dominate, the services and businesses of the area are also non existent, unless you drink a lot. That is the second announcement, whatever new bar or honky tonk is being opened or is open as if that is another example of the jobs being created in Nashville, service ones. They never ask specifics on the nature of jobs when speaking to the already two major players here in the area - Bridgestone and Nissan - with regards to average salaries and growth potential to encourage higher degrees and long term commitment to both the company and the community.
People with well paying jobs have a tendency to stay. Those with jobs that are highly mobile are more transient and those too are the same jobs that are cut when business changes and profit ranges are not met. And this will happen to the largest employment sector in Nashville now that the ACA is being decimated. These are lab techs, technicians and others who are not as essential to serve their customers/patients.
I have often joked but that Nashville should expand past the wedding industry which drives a great deal of the hospitality trade that dominates and instead expand into medical tourism. There is no shortage of medical treatment facilities and guess what both insurance and hospital trades dominate our other largest corporate employer. The ACA generated a lot of jobs as it required everyone to be insured and in turn people actually went to the Doctor. Ironically more of those covered with heavy subsidies and Medicaid as they were the most in need. People like me who fell into a whole new donut hole met the obligation of the law but with high deductibles and premiums, as well as the declining amount of providers meeting the insurers standards, it led many to have to find new Physicians and/or in turn limit visits. But that money maker starting today is coming to an end.
Those are the same jobs that define the middle class and the middle income especially here in Nashville. Medical care has always been well before the ACA a boondoggle, growing at fast rates, with huge costs, contributing to a significant amount of our GDP and in turn leading to more personal bankruptcies than any other industry - 60%. Welcome back said the newly excited bankruptcy class Attorney. Today personal injury lawyers are going well we still have a business as people will need us more than ever to pay increasing medical bills. It is a win win for Lawyers regardless. And that is our fourth largest industry - Lawyers. Both in civil and government related work. We are the Capital and that will never change.
Living in the red sea does provide one with an odd sense of security. We are so off the radar and so unimportant that little will actually change here thanks to the lowest education rates in the nation, the rising opioid crisis and the heavy duty dose of Jesus that dominates. That enables a large culture of compliance and duplicity to work in tandem without recourse.
Nashville is a town of dreamers and be they in Music or some other profession, people here are less attractive versions of those in the movie LaLa Land. The reality is that educated intellectual professionals have no reason to migrate here unless they have secured a job already and in turn significant salary in which they use to live outside of the city and not have to worry about the day to day issues that those who do reside here deal with. When a Dollar General store rebrands itself DGX and becomes a high end bodega to sell food and drugs, as no major other retailer has any desire to do so in the city confines, it says welcome to Nashville. But hey we have the Gulch!!
This is a city that defines walkable as the ability to walk to one restaurant to the other. What more do you need? Isn't that all millennial's want? And hence the obsession with the Gutch, the high priced condos and apartments and well tons of bars and restaurants with some expensive retail and an organic bodega, called the Turnip Truck. This is their crown jewel here in Nashville and they are going to build a walking bridge to get there despite that free buses and the ability to walk to it already exists but who needs sidewalks and buses? The poors. Fuck the poors!
And that is somewhat a shared view in the Northwests as they go out of their way to court the Millennial class as they are all that matter in many cities, Seattle and Portland and are all but on Match.com to attract them, but they also don't have to. Both cities have large industries and businesses, walkable communities and more important largely liberal tolerant and diverse major cities. And Nashville simply doesn't. We are very segregated here in many ways and those whom are educated and in turn want to be well compensated (again few and far between here) will drink a few craft beers then realize they are in a State where they are creating a law that defines the biological order/gender definition of a family; have a law that permits Therapists to refuse service if the patient is of alternative sexuality; the bathroom mishegoss is still on the table as is vouchers, I don't see that conversion therapy working with regards to the new liberal class.
The new class, the millennial class, live on the coasts for a reason and that is not just the jobs or the taxes (again Washington State no income tax, Oregon, no sales tax) - yes it is the politics. And they like that part they also don't want to deal with the heavy lifting that it would take to change that dynamic. Change to these people means well let's vote for Trump he can't do that badly, can he?
Ah denial it is a large sea in which to swim. Ever seen Jaws?
