The Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary came out of embargo 17 minutes before I wrote this sentence. From a national economic perspective It was everything we could have hoped for.
Net new Nonfarm Payroll employment once again blew away its published estimates, reaching 303,000 instead of 200,000. Seasonally adjusted and unadjusted unemployment fell 0.1% and 0.3% respectively, to get to 3.8% and 3.9%. The total jobless count was off 100,000 to 6.4 million, of which those out for 12 months or longer remained at 1,200,000. The unadjusted number of people working increased over a million, to 161,356,000. There were 94,814,000 claiming no interest in a job, down 66,000. Those working part-time for economic reasons, or keeping such positions while looking unsuccessfully for full-time ones, lost 100,000 to 4.3 million. The two measures of how common it is for people to be in jobs or one step away, the employment-population ratio and the labor force participation rate, each improved 0.2%, realizing 60.3% and 62.7%. Average private nonfarm payroll hourly wages rose more than inflation, 12 cents per hour, to $34.69.
The American Joh Shortage Number or AJSN reversed course from last month, falling over 700,000 as follows:
The largest change sources this month were the unemployed, people not looking for a year or more, and those discouraged, contributing 329,000, 264,000, and 125,000. Compared with a year before, the AJSN gained 462,000, more than that from higher official joblessness. The share of the AJSN from that was 36.4%, down 0.4% from February.
Except for the second-to-last line, do you see anything bad about the above? I don’t, except that some will focus on the lowered probability of interest rate cuts soon. That is understandable, but let us hope that stocks will be more affected by the formidable strength and robustness of our economy. These additional workers will spend. Again we added vastly more jobs than our population increase could absorb, added people to the labor force, continued pay increases at a clearly justified level, and reduced the count of those wanting to upgrade to full-time. Unemployment is still higher than it was a year ago, per the report “in a narrow range of 3.7 percent to 3.9 percent since August 2023,” and the 1.2 million still looking after a year or more could improve. But those are distractions, and at least interest rates, where they are, appear fully justified. The turtle stretched and took a large step forward.
