The main downtrend is still active with the price below all of the 50, 100 and 200 SMAs, but there is no longer any sign of oversold from either the slow stochastic or Bollinger Bands; the former at around 65 is between neutral and overbought. The next movement for EURUSD depends on the reaction to Wednesday and Thursday’s news. While this might seem like a decent opportunity to sell in, traders can probably expect strong reactions on this chart to both the Fed’s meeting and advance GDP, so caution is advised if holding positions around these times.

Key data this week

Bold indicates the most important releases for this symbol.

Wednesday 27 July

• 6:00 GMT: German GfK consumer confidence (August) – consensus negative 28.9, previous negative 27.4
• 12:30 GMT: durable goods orders (June) – consensus negative 0.3%, previous 0.7%
• from 18:00 GMT: statement and press conference of the Federal Open Market Committee

Thursday 28 July

• 12:00 GMT: German annual inflation (preliminary, July) – consensus 7.4%, previous 7.6%
• 12:00 GMT: German monthly inflation (preliminary, July) – consensus 0.6%, previous 0.1%
• 12:30 GMT: American quarterly GDP growth (advance, Q2) – consensus 0.4%, previous negative 1.6%

Friday 29 July

• 5:30 GMT: French quarterly GDP growth (preliminary, Q2) – consensus 0.2%, previous negative 0.2%
• 6:45 GMT: French annual inflation (preliminary, July) – consensus 6%, previous 5.8%
• 7:55 GMT: German unemployment change (July) – consensus 15,000, previous 133,000
• 7:55 GMT: German unemployment rate (July) – consensus 5.4%, previous 5.3%
• 8:00 GMT: German quarterly GDP growth (flash, Q2) – consensus 0.1%, previous 0.2%
• 8:00 GMT: German annual GDP growth (flash, Q2) – consensus 1.7%, previous 3.8%
• 9:00 GMT: eurozone-wide quarterly GDP growth (flash, Q2) – consensus 0.2%, previous 0.6%
• 9:00 GMT: eurozone-wide annual GDP growth (flash, Q2) – consensus 3.4%, previous 5.4%
• 9:00 GMT: eurozone-wide annual inflation (flash, July) – consensus 8.6%, previous 8.6%
• 9:00 GMT: eurozone-wide monthly inflation (flash, July) – consensus 0.2%, previous 0.8%
• 9:00 GMT: Italian annual inflation (July) – consensus 8.1%, previous 8%
• 12:30 GMT: American personal spending (June) – consensus 0.9%, previous 0.2%
• 12:30 GMT: American personal income (June) – consensus 0.5%, previous 0.5%

Gold, daily

Gold has bounced slightly since 21 July to trade at around $1,725 as fears of recession increased further in recent days and yields from benchmark decade Treasury bonds declined significantly below 3%. Overall, though, the fundamental picture for gold is quite negative, with the dollar in high demand and of course the Fed’s aggressive moves to hike rates last quarter which are expected to continue this week.

Similarly to euro-dollar, gold-dollar has now moved out of oversold while the main downtrend is still active. Volume here though is significantly lower than the peak in March during the initial stages of Russia’s latest invasion of Ukraine, so participants seem to be biding their time and waiting for this week’s result before committing themselves. The near-term support around $1,680 will almost certainly be tested at some point this week; if the downtrend continues the next main target might be the 200 SMA around $1,655. To the upside, the 50% weekly Fibonacci retracement is likely to cap gains unless data this week deliver a big surprise.

Key data this week

Bold indicates the most important releases for this symbol.

Wednesday 27 July

• 12:30 GMT: durable goods orders (June) – consensus negative 0.3%, previous 0.7%
• from 18:00 GMT: statement and press conference of the Federal Open Market Committee

Thursday 28 July

• 12:30 GMT: American quarterly GDP growth (advance, Q2) – consensus 0.4%, previous negative 1.6%

Friday 29 July

• 12:30 GMT: American personal spending (June) – consensus 0.9%, previous 0.2%
• 12:30 GMT: American personal income (June) – consensus 0.5%, previous 0.5%

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