The 100% weekly Fibonacci retracement, i.e. full retracement of losses in Q1 2020, is the main technical reference here and still a very strong support. A clear break below this would probably need a new catalyst from the RBA on Tuesday or Thursday morning’s balance of trade. Usually, a single NFP is unlikely to have a sustained effect on markets, but activity is likely to be high on Friday afternoon GMT. To the upside on the chart, the 50 SMA from Bands around 71.7c seems to be the first clear resistance.

Key data this week

Bold indicates the most important releases for this symbol.

Tuesday 1 February

• 30 GMT: Australian retail sales (preliminary, December) – consensus 1.2%, previous 7.3%
• from 3.30 GMT: decision and press conference of the Reserve Bank of Australia
• 00 GMT: ISM manufacturing PMI (January) – consensus 57.5, previous 58.7
• 00 GMT: JOLTs job opening (December) – consensus 10.52 million, previous 10.56 million

Wednesday 2 February

• 15 GMT: ADP employment change (January) – consensus 208,000, previous 807,000
• 00 GMT: Australian Markit service PMI (final, January) – consensus 45, previous 55.1

Thursday 3 February

• 30 GMT: Australian balance of trade (December) – consensus A$13 billion, previous A$9.42 billion

Friday 4 February

• 30 GMT: RBA’s statement on monetary policy
• 30 GMT: non-farm payrolls (January) – consensus 155,000, previous 199,000
• 30 GMT: American unemployment rate (January) – consensus 3.9%, previous 3.9%
• 30 GMT: annual average hourly earnings (January) – consensus 5.2%, previous 4.7%

Euro-pound, daily

Sentiment on the pound has been somewhat weaker since last week as the British government faces intense criticism over its ‘lockdown parties’ in 2020, with the imminent full report expected to damage Boris Johnson’s leadership further. However, the Bank of England is widely expected to hike its rate on Thursday, which would take it to 0.5%.

As above for AUDUSD, the 100% weekly Fibonacci retracement area is the main support which price is currently testing. A breakout below here might (eventually) open up prices below 80p for the first time since 2016’s referendum on Brexit. However, traders should monitor oversold with the slow stochastic currently around 19 and possibly consider waiting for at least a small bounce before selling in.

EURGBP is likely to be quite volatile on Thursday from noon as decisions from the BoE and ECB are expected within an hour of each other. Tuesday is also a fairly important day of data from the UK and eurozone.

Key data this week

Bold indicates the most important releases for this symbol.

Tuesday 1 February

• 00 GMT: German annual retail sales (December) – consensus 1.1%, previous negative 2.1%
• 45 GMT: French annual inflation (preliminary, January) – consensus 2.4%, previous 2.8%
• 55 GMT: German unemployment change (January) – consensus negative 6,000, previous negative 23,000
• 55 GMT: German unemployment rate (January) – consensus 5.2%, previous 5.2%
• 00 GMT: eurozone-wide unemployment rate (December) – consensus 7.1%, previous 7.2%

Wednesday 2 February

• 00 GMT: eurozone-wide annual inflation (flash, January) – consensus 4.4%, previous 5%

Thursday 3 February

• from 12.00 GMT: decision and press conference of the Bank of England
• from 12.45 GMT: decision and press conference of the European Central Bank

Friday 4 February

• 00 GMT: eurozone-wide annual retail sales (December) – consensus 5.1%, previous 7.8%

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