Pollsters have observed a lot of fluctuation in their predictions of the mandate, ranging from being dead to being completely at odds with the final result. Exit Polls are conducted by gathering input from voters as they leave the polling booth. This differs from opinion surveys that measure public sentiment prior to an election.
The Congress that had managed to slow down the Modi juggernaut in the last assembly elections winning 77+ seats is nowhere to even give the BJP a tough fight this time. Clearly indicating how the Congress is slowly but surely getting replaced by the AAP, in every state where the Congress cedes space, the AAP seems to be deftly moving in & gaining new territory. Last time around Rahul Gandhi’s campaign with the catchphrase ‘Vikas gando thayo che’ had managed to strike a chord with the electorate but evidently, the lack of local leadership & confusion on top has left the Congress rudderless in the state. For the AAP, it always was a win-win.
Even though it’s not likely to win the state, it will certainly claim a moral victory claiming that it has been able to gain ground in a state where it was practically non-existent a few years ago. The initial ingress made by the AAP, for now, may hearten the BJP as it directly hurts the Cong’s prospects but eventually, the AAP could become a huge headache for the BJP if it continues to make inroads in BJP’s bastions like PM Modi’s home turf Gujarat.
If exit polls are to be believed, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP will win both Gujarat assembly elections. An aggregate of exit polls says the BJP will win 140 of Gujarat’s 182 seats, 33 more than they scored in the 2017 polls. The Congress, according to the poll of exit polls, will manage to get 51 seats this time in Gujarat, a decline of 25 since 2017.
Exit polls in 2017 projected the BJP would win the state. The BJP would win 112-116 seats, according to the exit polls. It was just a few more than the actual number of seats the BJP won. In 2017, the BJP won 48 of the 89 seats it sought in the first round of voting, and 51 more in the second round, bringing its total to 99 seats out of 182.
Despite the average exit poll’s 2017 prediction of 65 seats, Congress ended up winning 77 seats.
The votes share is expected as:
BJP: 117-140 = 44%-49%
CONGRESS: 34-51 = 28%-32%
AAP: 06-13 = 12%-19%
OTHERS: 01-02 = 07%-09%
AAP spokesperson Siddharth Sharma spoke exclusively to NewsX regarding the Gujarat exit poll where he elucidated about a non-political survey done by CSDS Lok Niti which stated 2/3rd the people of Gujarat are seeking parivartan (change), and that fresh wind of change has been offered by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).
Whereas talking about the Gujarat exit poll, BJP spokesperson, Shivam Chabbra elucidated that for 27 years the people of Gujarat have shown their faith in the party and will continue to do so as the party has not only developed the state but has also provided peace and prosperity that no other party can do for the state.
While explaining the dynamics of the polls, Political Commentator, Sumit Peer, reiterated that the election of Gujarat is between the BJP and Congress and the AAP is nowhere to be seen in the picture.
