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Paul Hünermund Blog


phuenermund.wordpress.com
Researcher at Centre for European Economic Research. PhD student in business economics at KU Leuven. Blogging about innovation, entrepreneurship, and industry dynamics.
2023-04-26 06:46
With the folks over at the Practical AI podcast I talked about how to tackle robustness, fairness, and explainability with Causal AI. Check out the episode here: Practical AI 220: Causal… Read More
2020-06-06 13:45
My coauthor Petra Andries (Ghent University) and I just published a new paper in Research Policy: “Firm-level effects of staged investments in innovation: The moderating role of resour… Read More
2019-09-05 08:49
A frequent point of criticism against Directed Acyclic Graphs is that writing them down for a real-world problem can be a difficult task. There are numerous possible variables to consider an… Read More
Causal Data Science In Business
2019-05-06 15:29
A while back I was posting about Facebook’s causal inference group and how causal data science tools slowly find their way from academia into business. Since then I came across many mo… Read More
Beyond Curve Fitting
2019-04-04 15:25
Last week I attended the AAAI spring symposium on “Beyond Curve Fitting: Causation, Counterfactuals, and Imagination-based AI”, held at Stanford University. Since Judea Pearl and… Read More
2019-01-08 14:56
I just submitted an extended abstract of an upcoming paper to a conference that will discuss new analytical tools and techniques for policymaking. The abstract contains a brief discussion ab… Read More
Graphs And Occam’s Razor
2018-12-19 13:26
One argument / point of criticism I often hear from people who start exploring Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG) is that graphical models can quickly become very complex. When you read about the… Read More
You Can’t Test Instrument Validity
2018-10-30 09:27
Instrumental variable (IV) estimation is an important technique in causal inference and applied empirical work. The canonical IV setting looks like the following: Here, the relationship bet… Read More
The Origins Of Graphical Causal Models
2018-06-26 14:41
Here is an interesting bit of intellectual history. In his 2000 book “Causality”, Judea Pearl describes how he got to the initial idea that sparked the development of causal infe… Read More
No Free Lunch In Causal Inference
2018-06-09 13:46
Last week I was teaching about graphical models of causation at a summer school in Montenegro. You can find my slides and accompanying R code in the teaching section of this page. It was lot… Read More
2018-04-27 12:53
I found this job ad by accident on Twitter and was surprised to see that Facebook has a causal inference group. Facebook is seeking a Scientist to join the Experimental Design and Causal In… Read More
Becoming More Different Over Time
2018-03-30 16:07
In my class we recently discussed a paper by Higgins and Rodriguez (2006)—published in the Journal of Financial Economics—that contains an important lesson for researchers who wa… Read More
2018-01-31 10:00
[This is the second part of a fair copy of a recent Twitter thread of mine. I suggest you have a look at part 1 about nonlinear mediation analysis first. Otherwise, it might be hard to follo… Read More
Nonlinear Mediation Analysis
2018-01-17 12:33
This is a fair copy of a recent Twitter thread of mine. I thought it might be interesting to develop my arguments in a bit more detail and preserve them for later use. Yesterday I had an i… Read More
Do We Really Run Out Of Good Ideas?
2017-12-07 12:40
Here’s a quote from John K. Galbraith’s 1952 book American Capitalism: The Concept of Countervailing Power The idea that we slowly run out of good ideas and, thus, innovation be… Read More
Smithian Vs. Schumpeterian Growth
2017-10-10 07:38
In this quote from his latest book Joel Mokyr contrasts two important views on the origins of economic growth: “[…] The difference between “Smithian” and “… Read More
What’s Innovation Economics All About?
2017-09-03 15:00
Preface: On Wednesday I successfully defended my dissertation and am now the proud holder of PhD in business economics from KU Leuven. In this post I would like to share the opening chapter… Read More
2017-06-15 11:58
In my field of research we’re often running regressions with innovation expenditures or sales with new products aon the left-hand side. Usually we observe many zeros for these variable… Read More
Networking For Innovation
2017-05-24 10:58
Olav Sorenson from Yale published a new NBER working paper called “Innovation Policy in a Networked World”. The essay is quite interesting because it reviews insights we got from… Read More
2017-05-11 15:56
Next week we will organize the 7th ZEW/MaCCI Conference on the Economics of Innovation and Patenting in Mannheim and the program will be great. We will have Bronwyn Hall from Berkeley and Pi… Read More
2017-04-26 10:51
While reading Joel Mokyr’s newest book I came across an older paper of him, which I found very interesting. It is about what Mokyr calls Cardwell’s law*— the empirical regu… Read More
2017-03-27 19:31
Today, an interesting NBER working paper by Deepak Hegde from NYU Stern and coauthors got published: We provide evidence on the value of patents to startups by leveraging the random assignme… Read More
2017-02-22 13:29
Today, Judea Pearl commented on a new NBER working paper by Josh Angrist and Jörn-Steffen Pischke in a mail for subscribers to the UCLA Causality Blog. I think the text is too good to h… Read More
Different Stages Of Empirical Research
2017-02-12 17:22
Eventually, the job market stress comes to an end. So I thought I could start into the blogging year with a bit of humor. During the last couple of weeks I flew out to both economics and mor… Read More
2016-11-16 19:26
Recently I have written about the fundamental divide between Frequentist and Bayesian statistics that lies at the heart of many interpretations of the p-value debate. Perhaps the biggest wea… Read More
2016-11-08 01:19
I have to admit I love Airbnb. It’s probably the tech startup that had the greatest influence on my personal life in recent years. In fact, I’m staying in an Airbnb right now. So… Read More
2016-10-19 17:32
The p-value debate, started by the American Statistical Association (I wrote about it here), gained a lot of attention in the scientific community. Many people have commented on it. And the… Read More
2016-09-30 19:41
Time preference is one of the fundamental primitives in our economic models. It is crucial in investment decision problems were you have to incur a cost today to get a (higher) return at a l… Read More
This Isn’t A Scientific Revolution
2016-08-22 15:02
Two weeks ago I’ve been at the Annual Meeting of the Academy of Management (see this post). And you might have guessed, big data was a huge topic. There is tremendous potential for the… Read More
Theory Horse Races
2016-08-15 16:26
I just came back from the 76th Annual Meeting of the Academy of Management in Anaheim, California. The conference was great, not just because of the location. Lots of participants and lots o… Read More
My VOX Column
2016-07-15 14:33
VOXeu.org and CEPR gave me the possibility to publish a column on their website. You can find it under this link: http://www.voxeu.org/article/joint-programming-european-science-and-technolo… Read More
New Research On Immigrant Entrepreneurship
2016-07-11 12:04
Here is a very nice piece of scholarly work by Sari Pekkala and William R. Kerr on immigrant entrepreneurship in the US (NBER working paper version here, and here without the requiremen… Read More
Football Sans Frontières
2016-06-14 09:40
The 2016 UEFA European Football Championship is on and we’ve already seen some great teams on the pitch. But can you imagine how an EU28 Allstar Team would look like? I had lots of fun… Read More
Does Innovation Policy Really Work?
2016-05-30 18:49
Last week I had the chance to attend a fantastic conference organized by the Innovation Growth Lab in London on the use of randomized control trials (RCT) in innovation policy evaluation. Fi… Read More
When Laypersons Overthink Economics
2016-05-05 11:49
iesDo you still remember the “Teuro” (a pun from the German word for expensive, teuer, and euro)? Well, my family sure does. In the beginning of the 2000s there was a little rest… Read More
Econ 101: The Merits Of A Market Economy
2016-04-25 13:50
The efficiency of a market-based allocation of goods is something taught very early on to students of economics. But once in a while it’s good to remind ourselves of it, especially sin… Read More
2016-04-20 13:10
After the spectacular dive by Arturo Vidal in yesterday’s DFB Pokal semifinal, which arguably secured the victory for Bayern Munich over Werder Bremen, this research is more topical th… Read More
2016-04-06 13:50
Over at Orgtheory.net Fabio Rojas expresses the common problems people (not only me, thank god) seem to have with reading the classic texts. They are mostly communication problems. Back in t… Read More
Econometrics: When Everbody Is Different
2016-03-30 09:33
Nowadays everybody is talking about heterogeneous treatment effects. That is, response to an economic stimulus that varies across individuals in a population. However, so far the discussion… Read More
Econometrics: When Everybody Is Different
2016-03-30 09:33
Nowadays everybody is talking about heterogeneous treatment effects. That is, response to an economic stimulus that varies across individuals in a population. However, so far the discussion… Read More
2016-03-10 21:11
Seems like Andrew Gelman found some fellow campaigners against the inappropriate use of p-values and null hypothesis significance testing in science. The American Statistical Association now… Read More
2016-03-06 17:32
Anecdotical evidence tells me that immigrants from less developed countries exhibit lower levels of trust in the political institutions of their host countries than the native-born populatio… Read More
2016-01-31 14:38
Winter can be a hard time for singles. It’s cold outside, there’s nobody to cuddle with and it sucks to go to family parties all alone. Perfect time for dating websites to flood… Read More
2016-01-06 15:00
A recent blog post by Jon Murphy caught my attention. Since the late 1970s there is a comeback of smaller breweries in the US. Before, since prohibition times, the industry was dominated by… Read More
2015-12-30 09:27
Here are my WordPress.com stats for 2015. I love the international visibility.   Here’s an excerpt: A San Francisco cable car holds 60 people. This blog was viewed about 2,100 tim… Read More
2015-11-29 15:06
Almost recovered from a trip to China last week. Actually it was my first time in East Asia. Seeing the impressive economic growth that happened in China close-by is simply amazing. We spent… Read More
2015-10-23 08:42
This week, a paper from outside of my field caught my attention. Miguel Sarzosa and Sergio Urzúa study the effect of bullying among teenagers in Korea and find a substantially negativ… Read More

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