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| | | | | | By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | | A Palestinian woman carrying some belongings walks in a neighborhood devastated by Israeli bombing in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip on April 25, 2024. The war between Israel and Hamas reached the 200-day mark on Tuesday. | AFP via Getty Images | With help from Lara Seligman and Erin Banco Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric It doesn’t look like the monthslong stalemate to release hostages held by Hamas will be resolved soon, and even the White House seems in the dark on where the conversations are headed. Pressure on the Biden administration to push a deal through reached new heights this week. The war between Israel and Hamas reached the 200-day mark on Tuesday, Israel is publicizing its preparations for an invasion of the southern city of Rafah, and Hamas released a video showing a U.S. citizen held hostage. But there are few signs an agreement is getting any closer. KHALIL AL-HAYYA, one of the militant group’s top political leaders, told The Associated Press’ ABBY SEWELL that Hamas would be willing to agree to a truce of at least five years with Israel, lay down its weapons, and convert into solely a political party if an independent Palestinian state is created. Asked whether that’s a credible point of negotiation, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters today that it’s “obviously not. There's not going to be a Palestinian state with Hamas in control.” Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s far-right government has made it clear that it won’t agree to an independent Palestinian state, despite U.S. support for a two-state solution and recent efforts at the United Nations to recognize Palestine as its own state (a measure blocked by Washington). As it stands, the hostage deal proposal currently meets nearly all of Hamas’ demands, a senior administration official told reporters today, providing the briefing on internal thinking on condition of anonymity. Hamas just needs to release the vulnerable captives — women, wounded, elderly and sick hostages — to secure an immediate cease-fire, the official said. Hamas leaders have said they don’t have enough living hostages to meet Israel’s criteria. The deal was initially rejected by Hamas, the official said, explaining that the group’s leaders later walked it back and said they’re willing to come back to the table. It remains to be seen if Hamas is “just stringing things out,” the official said. “We do see some indications that there might be an avenue here,” the official said. “But I'm just not totally confident, because a lot of times we hear things from the leaders of Hamas outside that then do not reflect Hamas leadership inside.” Still, Kirby sounded less than optimistic. “It seems like Hamas just keeps wanting to move the goalposts,” he said. In the meantime, the Biden administration is resorting to public pressure, leading a joint statement today alongside 17 other countries calling on the militant group to release the hostages. Experts say it underscores the White House’s increased urgency to get a deal done, even if the statement won’t influence Hamas’ decision.
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The F-35 is vital to 21st Century Security. The most advanced, survivable, and connected fighter in the world is helping those we serve stay ahead of ready. Learn more. | | | | | US TROOPS LEAVING CHAD? A small contingent of U.S. troops are withdrawing from Chad, two U.S. officials with knowledge of the discussions told LARA SELIGMAN and ERIN BANCO. One of the officials characterized the number of people leaving as the “majority” of the dozens of military personnel the U.S. has in the nation, which sits at the crossroads of North, West and Central Africa. A small number will remain in Chad. The troops leaving were supposed to rotate out anyway, and the “pause” is only expected to be temporary, the officials said. The country is holding elections next week, one of the officials noted. But the withdrawal comes as many Sahel countries have turned away from the U.S. and France and toward Russia for military and security assistance, especially in the wake of a wave of coups across West and Central Africa. U.S. troops will leave bases in Niger, Washington announced earlier this month, after talks broke down with the country’s military junta, ending a long-standing military partnership that was seen as critical in the fight against jihadist groups on the continent. Russian troops, along with members of the mercenary Wagner Group, are now reportedly taking their place. GAZA AID ATTACK: Militants in Gaza launched mortar rounds on Wednesday at Israeli forces who were making preparations for efforts to create a new maritime aid route for Gaza, two U.S. officials told our own LARA SELIGMAN. No American equipment was damaged, one of the officials said. The U.S.-led project will establish a pier a few miles offshore as well as a causeway anchored to the beach for distribution of humanitarian aid. The news comes as Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. PAT RYDER said today that U.S. military vessels have begun to construct the initial stages of a temporary pier and causeway to allow additional humanitarian aid to flow into Gaza. However, he stressed that the pier is several miles offshore and the U.S. personnel were not involved in the attack.” Sen. ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) said the attack was predictable: “The risk to Americans will only intensify,” he said in a statement. “President Biden should never have put our men and women in this position, and he should abandon this project immediately before any U.S. troops are injured.” BLINKEN IN BEIJING: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN’s “bad-cop routine” in China just got a bit busier. Satellite images show China has harbored a U.S.-sanctioned cargo ship connected to arms transfers between North Korea and Russia arms transfers, Reuters’ MICHAEL MARTINA and DAVID BRUNNSTROM report. That news follows a sharp rebuke of China yesterday from JULIANNE SMITH, Washington’s envoy to NATO, who told POLITICO China was helping Russia meet its war goals in Ukraine by selling drone technology and gunpowder ingredients to Moscow. “Some had said China was uncomfortable with North Korea’s military support of Russia. This shows that’s not the case,” JACOB STOKES, senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security think tank, told NatSec Daily. “In fact, Beijing supports it.” As our friends at China Watcher noted this morning, Blinken already wasn’t getting the red carpet Beijing previously rolled out for Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN. In part, that’s because Blinken was dispatched to discuss more contentious issues with his Chinese counterparts, including the South China Sea, North Korea and China’s support for Russian manufacturing and industry amid the war in Ukraine. ANOTHER STATE DEPARTURE: The State Department’s Arab-language spokesperson HALA RHARRIT resigned over the Biden administration’s Gaza policy, according to Al Arabiya’s JOSEPH HABOUSH and NADIA BILBASSY-CHARTERS. Rharrit’s departure is perhaps the most eye-popping one yet — unlike previous officials like JOSH PAUL and ANNELLE SHELINE, Rharrit was a high-profile representative of the department in the Arab world as deputy director of State’s regional media hub in Dubai. She was also a career foreign service officer and worked for State for more than 18 years. “I’m not going to speak to the specifics,” spokesperson VEDANT PATEL said when asked about Rharrit’s departure at today’s State Department press briefing, noting it’s a personnel matter. Patel added that Blinken reads all dissent channel cables and said the department welcomes opposing viewpoints. REMEMBERING WCK WORKERS: Chef JOSÉ ANDRÉS and his team at World Central Kitchen today mourned the seven workers killed in an Israeli strike on the charity group earlier this month, our own KIERRA FRAZIER reports. “The seven souls we mourn today were there so that hungry people could eat,” a teary-eyed Andrés said to mourners at Washington National Cathedral. “I know there are also many questions about why World Central Kitchen was in Gaza. We ask ourselves the same question day and night. We are all consumed with anger, regret and sorrow.” IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
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| | | THE GOLD STANDARD OF DEFENSE POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries, like defense, equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.
Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other. Our defense reporting team—including Lara Seligman, Joe Gould, Paul McCleary, Connor O’Brien and Lee Hudson—is embedded with the market-moving legislative committees and agencies in Washington and across states, delivering unparalleled coverage of defense policy and the defense industry. We bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY. | | | | | | | | EYE ON ELECTIONS: State-sponsored hackers pose the greatest cyber threat to the upcoming U.S. elections, a report from Google Cloud’s Mandiant released today found. As our friends at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) write, the report assessed that some of the most prolific government hacking groups from Russia, Iran and China are very likely to attempt to interfere in the elections. The Mandiant report said these groups include Russia-linked Fancy Bear or APT28, the same group behind the cyberattacks on the Democratic National Committee and the presidential campaign of former Secretary of State HILLARY CLINTON in 2016. Sandworm, the Russian hacking group behind cyberattacks on Ukraine’s power grid in the last decade, and KillNet, the pro-Russian hacktivist group active in targeting European governments that support Ukraine, are also on the list. Chinese government-linked cyber intrusions will probably focus on collecting intelligence, the report continued, and any information operations will likely try to promote China. Iran’s cyber activity will likely be aimed at elections in the U.S. and in other nations that offer support to Israel in its war against militant group Hamas.
| | NORTHRoP’S GOOD NEWS: Yet another defense contractor is trumpeting expected windfalls from the supplemental, our own LEE HUDSON reports (for Pros!). Northrop Grumman, one of the military’s two solid rocket motor producers, expects that supplemental funding will go towards “additional capacity expansion” for solid rocket motors that are in demand for different weapons, CEO KATHY WARDEN said on an earnings call with investors today. Warden added that Northrop Grumman is “not getting distracted” by the delays for the Air Force’s Sentinel nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile replacement, pointing to bipartisan support for the ballistic missile replacement program. Read: The Ukrainian government is facing scrutiny for its move to deny new passports and refuse consular services to men of fighting age living abroad, our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reports.
| | NO MORE AID TO UKRAINE? Yesterday, NatSec Daily wrote about how the Ukraine aid debate might not be over. We didn’t expect it to start up again so soon. Staunch opponents of sending billions in assistance to Ukraine are already saying the package signed off by Biden needs to be the last: “If Ukraine thinks that it’s getting another $60 billion supplemental out of the United States Congress, there’s no way,” Sen. J.D. VANCE (R-Ohio) told The Hill’s ALEXANDER BOLTON and AL WEAVER. In response to The Hill’s article, Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) said “the ink isn’t even dry on the $61B foreign aid to Ukraine and big spenders are already planning more.” Paul didn’t vote on the foreign aid package but has expressed skepticism of funding Ukraine’s war efforts. Sen. JOHN FETTERMAN (D-Pa.), in his colloquial style, made fun of Ukraine aid skeptics: “lol they were saying the same shit 2 months ago,” he tweeted. In stark contrast to Vance and other skeptics, Russian oligarch and dissident MIKHAIL KHODORKOVSKY said the U.S. package isn’t enough, and Washington needs to “be prepared to open the storerooms much wider — $100-150 billion a year, possibly provide not only planes, but also pilots, possibly decide on the participation of NATO countries.”
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| | | POLITICO IS BACK AT THE 2024 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO will again be your eyes and ears at the 27th Annual Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles from May 5-8 with exclusive, daily, reporting in our Global Playbook newsletter. Suzanne Lynch will be on the ground covering the biggest moments, behind-the-scenes buzz and on-stage insights from global leaders in health, finance, tech, philanthropy and beyond. Get a front-row seat to where the most interesting minds and top global leaders confront the world’s most pressing and complex challenges — subscribe today. | | | | | | | | TAKE THAT, TEHRAN: The United States, United Kingdom and Canada announced new sanctions on Iran today following its attack on Israel earlier this month, our own NOAH KEATE reports. The Treasury Department said it was sanctioning more than a “dozen entities, individuals, and vessels that have played a central role in facilitating and financing the clandestine sale of Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles." BIBI’S BAD VIBES: Americans are souring on Netanyahu amid the war with Hamas, a Pew Research Center survey released today found. Fifty-three percent of Americans say they have “little or no confidence” that Netanyahu will do the right thing in foreign affairs, according to the study, which was conducted before Israel’s strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus and dueling Israeli and Iranian attacks afterward. That figure is up 11 points from last year. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, only 13 percent of respondents expressed positive feelings about the Israeli leader. NATO TRASH TALK: Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said Russia would suffer “inevitable defeat” in a war with NATO, our own CLAUDIA CHIAPPA and JOSHUA POSANER report. "It is not we, the West, who should fear a clash with Putin, but the other way around,” Sikorski said in a speech. “It is worth reminding about this, not to increase the sense of threat in the Russians, because NATO is a defensive pact, but to show that an attack by Russia on any of the members of the alliance would end in its inevitable defeat.”
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| | | | | | | | — Haiti’s embattled Prime Minister ARIEL HENRY resigned and a transitional government was sworn in today. The nine-member council is tasked with stabilizing the country, in concert with an anticipated Kenyan-led multinational support mission, amid raging gang violence. — Taiwanese President-elect LAI CHING-TE named several new government ministers. National Security Council Secretary-General WELLINGTON KOO will serve as Minister of Defense and former Taichung Mayor LIN CHIA-LUNG will serve as Minister of Foreign Affairs — Ukrainian Agriculture Minister MYKOLA SOLSKYI resigned today following allegations that he had been involved in the illegal acquisition of millions of dollars worth of state land before joining the government.
| | — ANCHAL VOHRA, POLITICO: India looks beyond Russia for defense imports — The Economist: How Iran covered up the damage from Israel’s strikes — ZACHARY KAUFMAN, The Miami Herald: Biden administration wrong to send BILL CLINTON to Rwanda for anniversary
| | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: The belt and road initiative at 10: challenges and opportunities — Inter-American Dialogue, 9:15 a.m.: Migration from the Andean region — Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: Transatlantic perspectives on the European health data space regulation — Wilson Center's Latin America Program, 11:15 a.m: Climate resilience and democratic governance in Central America's Northern Triangle," focusing on El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras — Atlantic Council, 1 p.m.: “The Sixth Domain and the role of the Private Sector," focusing on creating "a more constructive U.S. government-private sector relationship for wartime and integrating the private sector as the missing sixth operational domain — Georgetown University, 2 p.m.: Fostering global solidarities — Georgetown University, 3:30 p.m.: Cold War 2.0? The view from the rest of the world — Johns Hopkins University, 5:30 p.m.: Celebrating the centennial of the U.S. foreign service Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who rejected our offer for a truce of five years. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who should lead the United States’ negotiating efforts.
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