By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg

If President Joe Biden had his way, he would keep the election focused on foreign Policy. | Alex Wong/Getty Images

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With help from Daniel Lippman

After President JOE BIDEN’s Oval Office address last night, NatSec Daily can’t help but wonder: Will this, actually, be a foreign policy election?

November 2024 is a long way away, but the world’s crises have made global affairs a centerpiece of the recent campaign.

Biden is touting America as the indispensable nation while pushing a $106 billion congressional request to further aid Israel and Ukraine. On the Republican side, frontrunner DONALD TRUMP got bashed for criticizing Israel and praising Hezbollah while Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS and former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. NIKKI HALEY spar over accepting refugees from Gaza.

If Biden had his way, he would keep the election focused on foreign policy. “It is for him familiar and comfortable terrain. He's been involved in these issues for half a century,” said DAVID AXELROD, a former top adviser to then-President BARACK OBAMA.

A new poll by left-leaning groups National Security Action and Foreign Policy for America, first seen by NatSec Daily, shows there is broad support for Biden’s policy toward China, the biggest overall geopolitical test facing the U.S. A majority of respondents, 73 percent, said they want to see high-level talks between Washington and Beijing and that they broadly back the administration’s China policies like strengthening Indo-Pacific alliances and curbing industrial espionage.

That’s the good news. The rest isn’t so Biden friendly.

For every poll that shows support for Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war, there’s another indicating voter sentiment is net negative. A CBS/YouGov survey released Thursday reports 44 percent of Americans approve of what Biden is doing while 56 disapprove. There’s a partisan split, of course, but troublingly for the Biden campaign, independents are 61 percent opposed versus 39 percent in favor.

Congress is also threatening to be a roadblock to movement on Ukraine. While Democrats and Republicans broadly support backing Kyiv, there’s a groundswell, particularly in the speakerless House, that wants the aid to dry up. No matter how badly Biden wants to help, if a significant number of lawmakers disagree and block action, he’ll have fewer levers to pull.

“Any president who takes large political risks to get deeply involved in foreign policy may be later rewarded by historians, but not necessarily by the voters of his own time,” said MICHAEL BESCHLOSS, historian and author of a book about presidents in times of war. “Voters have sometimes reelected presidents who seemed to have just done the right, though largely unpopular thing — such as FDR in 1940, after mobilizing the nation for war, and HARRY TRUMAN in 1948, after rising to the Soviet challenge in the Cold War.”

Republicans see vulnerability where Biden sees strength.

They insist Biden hasn’t been tough enough on Iran, especially after Hamas’ attack on Israel. Some of the leading candidates, namely Trump, say Biden’s Ukraine policy unnecessarily risks World War III. They claim there’s far more the U.S. could do to counter China, such as flooding Taiwan with weapons ahead of a potential invasion. It helps explain why two candidates who see the world very differently, Haley and VIVEK RAMASWAMY, have curiously made foreign policy central to their presidential pitches.

No one here at NatSec Daily is naive enough to think that foreign policy will be the thing that matters in 2024 — who knows what could happen over the next 13 months? But it increasingly looks like it will feature in this cycle more so than others.

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$106 BILLION: The White House has officially made its funding request for Israel and Ukraine –– and it’s a doozy at $106 billion.

As our own JENNIFER HABERKORN and ADAM CANCRYN report, “the request includes $61.4 billion for Ukraine, including $44.4 billion to provide Department of Defense equipment for the country, to replenish weapons stocks and to continue providing other military support. The administration is also asking for $14.3 billion for Israel and $9.15 billion for the State Department to provide humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Gaza.”

That’s simply a lot of money, and it will face some strong headwinds on Capitol Hill (scroll down to On The Hill for one of them). The effort is complicated further by a speakerless House that is already increasingly skeptical of further funding for Ukraine.

The previously authorized money for Ukraine “has nearly run out,” national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN said.

In addition to the funds for the two wars, the White House is asking Congress for $13.6 billion to address migration at the southern border. That includes $6.4 billion for border operations, such as holding facilities, $3.1 billion for additional border agents, $1.4 billion for migrant shelters and services and $1.2 billion to counter fentanyl.

FUTURE OF GAZA UNCLEAR: Israeli officials said today that the nation doesn’t plan to take long-term control of Gaza after its expected ground invasion of the territory, which would aim to take out the Hamas militant group in charge, takes place.

Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT laid out a three-part plan to Israeli lawmakers, The Associated Press’ NAJIB JOBAIN, SAMYA KULLAB and JOSEPH KRAUSS report. They are:

1. Israel will use airstrikes and “maneuvering,” likely code for the ground invasion, to mostly defeat Hamas.
2. Lower intensity fighting will continue as Israel battles any remaining pockets of resistance.
3. Then, there will be “the removal of Israel’s responsibility for life in the Gaza Strip.”

Meanwhile, Hamas has released two American hostages, JUDITH TAI RAANAN and NATALIE SHOSHANA RAANAN, for humanitarian reasons. Qatar helped secure their freedom. The militant group says it let the hostages go to prove that Biden’s statements about Hamas are false.

In Gaza, more than a million of the enclave’s 2.3 million residents (half of whom are under 18 years old) have been displaced. While Israeli Prime Minster BENJAMIN NETANYAHU called southern parts of the walled territory “safe zones” this week, Israeli military spokesperson NIR DINAR said today that “there are no safe zones” as Israeli airstrikes continue, the AP reports.

It’s looking unlikely that humanitarian aid from Egypt into Gaza will soon be green-lighted as Israeli, Egyptian, United Nations and U.S. officials consider details like who would inspect the shipments for potential weapons, several U.N. and European officials and diplomats familiar with the talks told The New York Times’ MATINA STEVIS-GRIDNEFF and VIVIAN YEE.

Also today, Israel said it would evacuate 20,000 residents from Kiryat Shmona, one of its own towns on the Lebanon border, amid heavy gunfire in recent days, Reuters’ ARI RABINOVITCH reports. The move “allows the IDF to expand its operational freedom to act against the Hezbollah terrorist organization," Israeli spokesperson DANIEL HAGARI told the outlet.

Read: U.S. to wind down charter flights from Israel as demand wanes by our own ORIANA PAWLYK

BLINKEN HEARS YOU: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN told his staffers that he knew many were shaken professionally and personally by the Israel-Hamas war, as some Muslim and Arab employees express unhappiness over how the U.S. is approaching the crisis, our own NAHAL TOOSI reported late Thursday.

His note to staff Thursday night wasn’t a response to reports of the frustrations, a person familiar with the issue told Nahal. He had planned to write to department employees about the Middle East crisis but wanted to wait until he returned from a visit to the region, the person said.

“I know that, for many of you, this time has not only been challenging professionally, but personally,” he added. “Some of our colleagues in the region, especially among our locally employed staff, have been directly affected by the violence, including by losing loved ones and friends.”

Earlier on Thursday, more than 400 Muslim and Jewish Capitol Hill staffers signed a letter urging Congress to call for a cease-fire in the conflict, noting “antisemitism, anti-Muslim, and anti-Palestinian sentiment on the rise nationwide, HuffPost’s ROWAIDA ABDELAZIZ reports.

Also, we recommend reading Nahal’s Q&A with JOSH PAUL, the former State Department employee who very publicly resigned this week over concerns about U.S. arms shipments to Israel. It’s spicy.

Read: Former Warren staffers press her to call for cease-fire in Israel-Hamas war by our own LISA KASHINSKY and KELLY GARRITY

KING OF CRIMES?: Army Pvt. TRAVIS KING, who was briefly detained by North Korea after fleeing over the DMZ in July, is facing eight charges including desertion and possessing sexual images of a child, The Associated Press’ LOLITA BALDOR and ERIC TUCKER reported Thursday night.

Desertion can result in prison time up to three years, the most serious of the charges leveled against the 23-year old. He’s also accused of punching and kicking officers, unlawfully possessing alcohol, making a false statement and possessing a video of a child engaged in a sexual activity, according to a charging document obtained by the AP.

DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink.

Today, we’re featuring RICHARD FONTAINE, CEO of the Center for a New American Security think tank. Fontaine is famous for his love of Diet Coke, which he tells us he’ll drink “anywhere and everywhere. Don’t like coffee, don’t drink booze and everybody needs a vice.”

We asked Fontaine if he’d ever consider drinking regular Coke, to which he replied: “Compare the calorie count.” In other words, Fontaine is downing Diet Cokes because, as he would agree tongue in cheek, it’s “the healthy choice.”

Cheers, Richard!

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FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — DESANTIS DONOR DANGER: A major donor and close informal adviser of RON DeSANTIS has donated tens of thousands of dollars to an organization that endorsed a candidate last year who called Israel an “apartheid state,” our own DANIEL LIPPMAN reports.

Florida entrepreneur MORI HOSSEINI has lent his private plane to DeSantis and his wife at least 12 times, including as recently as February, and Hosseini and his companies donated more than $350,000 to DeSantis’ PAC, his campaign and the Republican Party of Florida party in the 2022 cycle. Hosseini, who the Orlando Sentinel called the “most powerful unelected person in Florida,” even lent DeSantis an expensive golf simulator to use in the Governor’s mansion.

DeSantis has reappointed Hosseini to the University of Florida’s board of trustees and steered $92 million in leftover federal Covid stimulus money to a project that directly benefited Hosseini.

Hosseini and his wife, FOROUGH HOSSEINI, have donated $93,000 to the Public Affairs Alliance of Iranian Americans’ PAC, according to FEC records. She is also the board chair of the organization.

Last year, the PAC endorsed California Congressional candidate SHERVIN AAZAMI, who had praised an Amnesty International report that labeled Israel an “apartheid state” and said he would support the Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions movement if he was elected. The organization also denounced Trump’s withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal.

The Hosseinis and Aazami didn’t respond to requests for comment. LINDSEY CURNUTTE, a spokesperson for the DeSantis campaign, said the governor “is clear in his convictions and his policy positions are not decided by donors. DeSantis is the most pro-Israel governor in the country and is a fierce opponent to the BDS movement.”

MANIL-AI: The Philippine military has been given an unusual order: Stop using apps that use artificial intelligence to make personal portraits.

All defense officials and the country’s 163,000-person military must obey the new directive, The Associated Press reports, following an Oct. 14 memo by Defense Secretary GILBERTO TEODORO JR.

Teodoro’s concern is that submitting multiple photos to such apps could pose “significant privacy and security risks,” partly because the app can mimic how a real person speaks and moves — which isn’t good for any institution that lives and breathes off of legitimate orders.

“This seemingly harmless and amusing AI-powered application can be maliciously used to create fake profiles that can lead to identity theft, social engineering, phishing attacks and other malicious activities,” he continued. “There has already been a report of such a case.”

ISRAEL’S ROBOTS: Drone warfare could play a big part in Israel’s imminent ground invasion of Gaza, as the territory’s complex tunnel system and dense urban environment will make it tough for Israeli troops to navigate, two autonomous weapons experts told NatSec Daily.

“I expect to see Israel employ significant drones, if and when they end up wandering that ground invasion,” said ZAK KALLENBORN, a George Mason University weapons innovation analyst. “If you can shift that risk from the individual soldier to a robot, where you don’t care if the robot dies, … that potentially could be really, really useful.”

Israel could use its reconnaissance drones and kamikaze drones, like the Harop, among others to attack targets on the ground as well, said SAMUEL BENDETT, an adviser with the Center for Naval Analyses' strategy, policy, plans and programs division.

“Less clear is the role of close-range tactical drones like [those] used in Ukraine,” he said. “Looks like Hamas was paying attention to their use in Ukraine given their initial drone use on Oct. 7, but it’s unclear how large is such an arsenal on both sides."

SEPARATE UKRAINE AND ISRAEL: Eleven Republican senators are calling on the chamber’s leadership to separate the administration’s funding requests for Israel and Ukraine.

“It is critical we give prompt consideration to any request for financial aid or other material support requested by Israel,” reads the letter led and revealed by Sen. ROGER MARSHALL (R-Kansas). “It would be wrong to leverage support of aid to Israel in [an] attempt to get additional aid for Ukraine across the finish line.”

It’s unlikely that the letter will move Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER or his Republican counterpart MITCH McCONNELL. Both lawmakers have shown support for the spending request and, in general, backing Israel and Ukraine in their respective fights.

But the letter indicates there remains a contingent of Republicans skeptical of supporting Ukraine, even though the majority of lawmakers in the party back further aid to Kyiv.

The most striking aspect of the letter is that Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) signed on. He’s been a staunch supporter of both Israel and Ukraine, leading congressional aides and advocates to wonder why Cruz put his name on the document.

Here’s the explanation: “Sen. Cruz has often called for separating supplemental spending from larger legislation and considering issues as stand-alone bills rather than larger packages,” said DARIN MILLER, a Cruz spokesperson. Miller noted that the lawmaker asked for Ukraine funding to be separated from a September continuing resolution last year.

PLEASE, XI: Schumer urged Chinese paramount leader XI JINPING to help sway Iran against becoming more involved in the Israel-Hamas war during his recent trip to Beijing, Punchbowl News reports.

“It would be really important for China to use its influence on Iran to not widen the war,” Schumer said he told the leader. “Xi said, ‘I will pass that message along.’ He’s supposed to just say nothing.”

Beijing’s influence over Tehran is strong, with the pair having signed a 25-year strategic partnership to strengthen economic and security ties in March. China has also beefed up its diplomacy in the Middle East recently, notably brokering a deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to ease tension between the two.

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CLEAR CONSEQUENCES: Another way to ensure Iran doesn’t become entrenched in the Israel-Hamas conflict is for Biden to threaten the use of direct U.S. military action inside the country, Rep. DAN CRENSHAW (R-Texas) said.

“There needs to be very clear consequences laid out for Iran and Hezbollah,” he told Fox News this morning. “If you want to prevent war you have to threaten it, and threaten it credibly. It takes statements that make people uncomfortable.”

He applauded the Biden administration for moving two aircraft carrier ships into the eastern Mediterranean Sea, saying more actions like that are needed. But the president “needs to put it on the table that there could be physical strikes in Iran if they do physical strikes inside Israel,” Crenshaw said. “Us saying that is what prevents it from all happening.”

— FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: PAUL JONES will join Squire Patton Boggs as an international affairs adviser in the law firm’s public policy practice. In a 33-year State Department career, Jones served as ambassador to Poland and Malaysia. He last led international government relations for RTX, the defense contractor previously known as Raytheon Technologies.

— FRANCISCO BENCOSME is now the lead for China and climate issues and the global China coordinator in USAID’s policy planning office. He was last the deputy to the special presidential envoy for COFA negotiations and senior advisor to the East Asian and the Pacific Affairs assistant secretary of State.

— Biden has nominated two people for ambassador posts: KAMALA SHIRIN LAKHDHIR for Indonesia and JOHN MCINTYRE for Eswatini.

— MICHAEL HIRSCH, POLITICO: Biden’s Allies Say the Quiet Part Out Loud: This War Could Be His 2024 Reset

— THOMAS FRIEDMAN, The New York Times: To Win the War, Defeat Hamas and Stop Settlements

— LEXIE RIGDEN, Fox News: Make sponsors of terrorism like Iran pay for their crimes — literally

And a personal read, if you don’t mind — Obituary: ANN WARD, forever this newsletter’s top fan and, as she liked to be called, the MVG: Most Valuable Grandmother.

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: CISA's evolving.gov mission, focusing on cybersecurity for Federal Civilian Executive Agency networks

— The Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: A discussion with commissioners of the final report of the U.S. strategic posture commission

— The Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: The war in Israel and Gaza

— The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: NATO summit retrospective: 100 days after Vilnius, what's next?

— The Heritage Foundation, 1 p.m.: The future of the U.S.-Israel alliance

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1 p.m.: The outlook for Israel's military campaign against Hamas

— The George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 3:30 p.m.: Congress and Biden's initial success in countering China's challenges

— The Wilson Center's Cold War International History Project, 4 p.m.: Book discussion on “Dreams for a Decade: International Nuclear Abolitionism and the End of the Cold War"

— The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 4:30 p.m.: