By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg

Hamas, the militant group that controls Gaza and launched a brutal attack on Israel that started the war, still claims Israel hit the hospital. But even publicly available information seems to refute Hamas’ claims. | Satellite image ©2023 Maxar Technologies

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With help from Joe Gould, Lara Seligman and Rebecca Kern

A day after a horrific explosion reportedly killed hundreds at a Gaza hospital, intelligence obtained by the United States indicates Israel wasn’t responsible.

President JOE BIDEN was the first to hint at the internal findings, stating during his trip to Israel that “the other team” — meaning Palestinian militants — were to blame. Moments later, National Security Council spokesperson ADRIENNE WATSON provided more detail: “While we continue to collect information, our current assessment, based on analysis of overhead imagery, intercepts and open source information, is that Israel is not responsible for the explosion at the hospital in Gaza yesterday.”

There was some speculation that perhaps Biden, a staunch supporter of Israel, was defending the American ally, especially after Israel Defense Forces said the Palestinian militant group Islamic Jihad was at fault. But statements from U.S. officials, lawmakers and experts ever since seem to back up the administration’s conclusion.

“The Senate Intelligence Committee has received and reviewed intelligence related to the attack on al-Ahli hospital in Gaza. Based on this information, we feel confident that the explosion was the result of a failed rocket launch by militant terrorists and not the result of an Israeli airstrike,” Sens. MARK WARNER (D-Va.) and MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.), the panel’s leaders, said in a statement.

Hamas, the militant group that controls Gaza and launched a brutal attack on Israel that started the war, still claims Israel hit the hospital. It continues to release what it claims is proof that the Israeli military purposefully killed civilians with its airpower.

But even publicly available information seems to refute Hamas’ claims.

MARC GARLASCO, an expert on civilian harm reduction, weighed in that it doesn’t appear the explosion was the result of an aerial bombing. “Whatever hit the hospital in #Gaza it wasn’t an airstrike. Even the smallest JDAM leaves a 3m crater. Widespread surface damage and total lack of cratering inconsistent with an airstrike,” he wrote on X, the platform once known as Twitter.

And as The Wall Street Journal reports, “photos and videos taken at the site of the blast show that the hospital compound’s buildings haven’t sustained major damage.”

“At the moment, the preponderance of evidence does point to it being a Hamas or [Islamic Jihad] rocket hitting the area,” BLAKE SPENDLEY, an open-source intelligence analyst, told WSJ, noting that what he’s seen indicates a death toll closer to 50, not 500 as Hamas asserted.

Hamas, of course, has an interest in painting Israel as brutes who don’t care if they kill civilians. It furthers their cause and erodes the goodwill Israel has following Hamas’ attack that killed more than 1,400 people.

However, the Biden administration is cautioning Israel to weigh the safety of civilians as they continue to retaliate against Hamas. That campaign has already claimed over 3,000 lives, with that total set to spike once Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU launches an anticipated ground invasion of Gaza.

“Justice must be done. But I caution this: While you feel that rage, don’t be consumed by it,” Biden said in Israel. “After 9/11 we were enraged in the United States. While we sought justice and got justice, we also made mistakes.”

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Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

HAMAS AND HEZBOLLAH IN CAHOOTS: A senior Hamas representative in Lebanon told our own JAMIE DETTMER that Hamas and Hezbollah — both militant groups backed by Iran — are closely coordinating their next steps in fighting against Israel

“We have very strong relations with Hezbollah. We were cooperating with Hezbollah before the attack on Israel and after and now we are in full cooperation,” AHMED ABDUL-HADI, the head of Hamas’ political bureau in Beirut, told Jamie.

Abdul-Hadi insisted that Hamas had not given its ally Hezbollah any advance notice of its attacks against Israel on Oct. 7. Despite this, however, he described a continual cooperation between the two groups, stressing Hezbollah was now “geared for a major war” against Israel in the north, while Hamas would burst Netanyahu’s “dream” of driving the group out of Gaza.

Hezbollah stepping into the conflict is a big concern in the Biden administration, and the White House has discussed the possibility of using military force if the militant group targets Israel with its massive arsenal of missiles, Axios’ BARAK RAVID reported Tuesday.

Read: Is an Israeli occupation of Gaza a mistake? Britain’s defense chief won’t say by Alex.

ICYMI — Biden admin doesn’t want Israel-Hamas to suck U.S. back into the Middle East by Alex and Jonathan.

BEIJING’S BEST BUD: As Biden met with Netanyahu, Chinese paramount leader XI JINPING today hailed his “strong personal friendship” with his Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN during a meeting in Beijing on the margins of a forum on China’s global infrastructure program, our own NICOLAS CAMUT reports.

“Political mutual trust is steadily deepening,” Xi said, according to a Russian readout of the meeting.

In spite of recent calls from China’s foreign minister to revive plans for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, both leaders avoided making explicit references to the recent escalation around the Gaza Strip, which is threatening to turn into a regional war.

ADMIN LIKES POLAND RESULT: The Biden administration isn’t openly celebrating the apparent ouster of Poland’s right-wing government in elections this week. But in private, the president’s advisers are breathing a sigh of relief, our own Jonathan, JOE GOULD and NAHAL TOOSI reported Tuesday evening.

“It looks like the center has held in Poland,” DANIEL FRIED, a former U.S. ambassador to the country, told our colleagues.

Read: What Poland’s surprise election winner means for the world by our own MATTHEW KAMINSKI.

IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

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ISRAEL V. THE MEDIA: Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS accused mainstream media of initially blaming Israel for the deadly Tuesday strike on the Gaza Strip hospital, saying that biased news coverage is an obstacle for Israel in its conflict.

“That shows Israel what they're up against because they obviously have to conduct operations to be able to eliminate Hamas and eliminate that threat once and for all. But they are going to be fighting in an environment where so much of the media is going to be arrayed against them,” DeSantis told Fox News’ BRIAN KILMEADE today.

The Republican presidential candidate also called for “moral clarity” from the U.S. as the conflict evolves, a phrase the Biden administration and Netanyahu have used in recent days.

Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here.

HAMAS CRYPTO CRACKDOWN: The Treasury Department today sanctioned two senior Hamas officials, a Gaza Strip-based crypto exchange and its operators, and six others who help manage the militant group’s investment portfolio across Gaza, Algeria, Sudan, Turkey and Qatar, our own SAM SUTTON reports.

“The U.S. Treasury has a long history of effectively disrupting terror finance and we will not hesitate to use our tools against Hamas,” Secretary JANET YELLEN said in a statement. “We will continue to take all steps necessary to deny Hamas terrorists the ability to raise and use funds to carry out atrocities and terrorize the people of Israel.”

The sanctions against the group, which has been designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and European Union, are designed to stem revenue from a portfolio of businesses that are worth hundreds of millions of dollars, according to Treasury.

DRONES DOWN: The U.S. military intercepted multiple aerial drones targeting its troops stationed in Iraq early today, a U.S. official told our own LARA SELIGMAN, as officials are on heightened alert for potential attacks on American forces in the Middle East amid an escalating conflict.

U.S. forces shot down three drones in Iraq, where 2,500 American troops are stationed, said the U.S. official, who was granted anonymity to speak ahead of an announcement. Two were in the West, threatening troops at Al Asad air base, and one was in the north of the country, the official said.

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — HELP THE U.N. HELP PALESTINIANS: More than 60 percent of Senate Democrats are calling on the Biden administration to contribute to a U.N. humanitarian package to help Palestinians in need during the war with Israel started by Hamas’ surprise attacks last weekend.

“More than one million people have fled the violence, stretching the already strained ability of the United Nations and humanitarian partners on the ground to provide the food, medical treatment, and shelter they need to survive,” write the 33 lawmakers led by Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.). “In this context, the U.N. has released an emergency appeal for $294 million to address these humanitarian needs, help protect displaced people and save countless lives. We urge you to uphold our country’s proud tradition of leading the international community in providing lifesaving relief by contributing funding for international humanitarian assistance toward this U.N. appeal.”

The U.N.’s appeal for funds was made last week, with the goal of giving it to 77 aid partners to distribute among those in need in Gaza. Biden today announced that the U.S. will send $100 million in aid for humanitarian assistance to civilians in Gaza and the West Bank, our own KELLY GARRITY reports. It’s unclear, though, if that money is going through the U.N. channel or directly from the United States to Palestinian authorities.

Israel also said today that it won’t block humanitarian aid from entering Gaza from Egypt, Al Jazeera reports.

ICYMI — Biden expected to ask Congress for $100B package that includes aid to Israel and Ukraine by our own JENNIFER HABERKORN, LARA SELIGMAN and Alex.

TALKING STAGE, AGAIN: Talks are back on between Serbia and its former province of Kosovo after discussions meant to normalize relations broke down last month without making progress, Joe writes in. Intervention from senior officials in the U.S. and Europe is to credit for setting up the new talks, slated for Saturday, the Guardian reports.

The two have been at odds since their 1998-1999 war, and Serbia has refused to recognize Kosovo's statehood since it declared independence in 2008. The EU, which has helped facilitate the recent talks, has warned the lack of progress could harm both sides in their bids to join the bloc. Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.), who leads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s Europe panel, traveled to the Western Balkans last week and told us she saw “real progress between Serbia and Kosovo,” in spite of a violent clash last month between ethnic Serbs and Kosovars.

Shaheen said that “everywhere we went,” she and Sen. PETER WELCH (D-Vt.) heard that “Vladimir Putin and Russian disinformation is contributing to instability” in the region — from North Macedonia and Montenegro (NATO members aspiring to join the European Union) to Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Shaheen said the global community has an active role to play in the region, and the stakes are high. The EU should be giving candidate countries in the Western Balkans the path to entry their citizens want, she said. And the U.N.-authorized and EU-led peacekeeping forces in Bosnia-Herzegovina, which aim to keep internal tensions there low, should continue, Shaheen added.

“It sends a very important message to the citizens of Bosnia-Herzegovina that they can depend on the force for their safety and security,” she said, adding, “Instability in one country has the potential to spill over into the region.”

Read: ‘The wrong person’: Senate Republicans slam Biden’s pick for Israel ambassador by our own CONNOR O'BRIEN.

PLAYBOOK IS GOING GLOBAL! We’re excited to introduce Global Playbook, POLITICO’s premier newsletter that brings you inside the most important conversations at the most influential events in the world. From the buzzy echoes emanating from the snowy peaks at the WEF in Davos to the discussions and personalities at Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to the heart of diplomacy at UNGA in New York City – author Suzanne Lynch brings it all to your fingertips. Experience the elite. Witness the influential. And never miss a global beat. BE PART OF THE CONVERSATION. SUBSCRIBE NOW.

WATCH YOUR MOUTH: Top Arab American and Muslim leaders admonished the Biden administration as being insensitive and even reckless in their rhetoric following Hamas’ bloody attack on Israel in a private call with State Department officials, our own HOLLY OTTERBEIN reports.

On the Monday call, ZAHA HASSAN, a human rights lawyer, addressed what she thought was the Biden administration’s problematic language: At a press briefing last week, a State Department spokesperson declined to say directly that Israel should stop cutting off medicine, water and humanitarian aid to Palestinians, though he said he expects Israel to follow international law.

“It gave the impression that it’s OK to do that to Palestinians because they’re Palestinians,” she said on the call. “That’s dehumanizing, and it opens the door for people to think that, well, you know, certain things are OK because they must be bad people. They must be terrorists.”

Also on the call, WARREN DAVID, president of Arab America, told ANDREW MILLER, the deputy assistant secretary of state for Israeli-Palestinian affairs, that his members were “outraged — outraged — to say the least at the rhetoric that’s been coming out the last few days” from the Biden administration.

Watch: Pentagon releases new footage showing uptick in Chinese jets harassing U.S. aircraft by our own ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL and Lara.

— The Center for a New American Security named VIVEK CHILUKURI as a senior fellow and director of the technology and national security program. Chilukuri previously served as a senior staff member for Sen. MICHAEL BENNET (D-Colo.).

— STEVEN SIMON, Foreign Affairs: What comes after Hamas?

— NIKKI HALEY, The New York Post: Wake up, America: Our enemies are an evil alliance taking advantage of our weakness around the world

— ROSS DOUTHAT, The New York Times: Are there lessons for Israel from America’s response to 9/11?

— Punchbowl News, 8:30 a.m.: The future of cybersecurity

— Cyber, Information Technology, and Innovation Subcommittee, 9 a.m.: Hearing about outside perspectives on DOD's replicator program

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: North Korea-Russia arms cooperation

— The Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: The findings of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States

— The House Homeland Security Transportation and Maritime Security Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: The role of technology in aviation security

— The House Judiciary Courts, Intellectual Property, and the Internet Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: IP and strategic competition with China: part III - IP theft, cybersecurity and AI

— The George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 1 p.m.: Finland's future in NATO

— The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, 2 p.m.: Supporting Israel and Ukraine against terror

— The House Homeland Security Oversight, Investigations and Accountability Subcommittee, 2 p.m.: Exploitation and enforcement: evaluating the Department of Homeland Security's efforts to counter Uyghur forced labor

— Politics and Prose Bookstore, 7 p.m.: Book discussion on Conflict: The evolution of warfare from 1945 to the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who blames us for everything without evidence.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who everyone assesses is the best dude.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.

Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

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