STRONG STATEMENT — When President Joe Biden touches down in Israel on Wednesday, he’ll be walking into a crisis that is quickly expanding across the Middle East. The extraordinary trip, and its timing, is fraught with danger. Just today, an airstrike killed at least 500 people in a Gaza City hospital. According to the Palestinian Health Ministry the strike was launched from Israel, though the IDF and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu deny involvement and blame Palestinian militants. In the wake of the attack, Biden’s planned meeting with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Egypt President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and King Abdullah of Jordan in Amman was canceled. Hamas’ military wing also reports that one of its top militant commanders — Ayman Nofal, known by Abu Ahmad — was killed in an Israeli airstrike today. While the war is concentrated in Gaza, it has rippled through countries across the Middle East. Egypt is not yet budging on opening a border crossing in Rafah that would allow aid to get in and allow Palestinians with foreign citizenship to leave Gaza. Surrounding countries like Jordan are also unwilling to take in Palestinian refugees. Saudi Arabia and Iran, who recently restored diplomatic ties despite a brutal proxy war in Yemen, have also been in contact in recent days concerning the conflict; Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman kept Secretary of State Antony Blinken waiting for several hours before their meeting on the subject of Israel/Gaza Sunday. Hamas continues to hold scores of civilian hostages, and today released the first video of a hostage who was taken to Gaza. NBC News reports that Hamas says they are willing to release the hostages if the bombing of Gaza stops. So far, Biden has indicated support for Israel and will continue to do so during his visit — potentially frustrating other countries in the region. But he’s also going to Israel to attempt to convince authorities to practice restraint and avoid civilian casualties. To get a better sense of the rapidly changing situation across the Middle East, Nightly spoke with POLITICO’s Nahal Toosi, a senior foreign affairs correspondent who has reported extensively on the war across the region. This interview has been edited. What have we learned so far from U.S. diplomatic efforts since this latest stage of the Israel/Hamas conflict began? We’ve seen some of its strengths, but also its limits. Led by President Biden, U.S. diplomats reacted quickly and methodically, condemning the Hamas attack, showing their support for Israel and — this includes the military side — deploying American assets as well as admonishments to warn outside parties such as Iran not to escalate the conflict. To a degree, this strong show of American support for Israel has been driven by the potency of Israel as a political issue in the United States. But there are some harsh realities in the Middle East as well. Right now, the Israeli government faces intense pressure to act against Hamas, and it may not abide by American warnings to be careful and think through any ground operation. Arab countries, in particular, may only be willing to go so far in terms of isolating Hamas. And they’re unlikely to accept many, if any, Palestinian refugees, because they worry Israel will never let them go back home. Arab leaders have to think about the pro-Palestinian sentiment prevalent in their populations, so the U.S. has limited leverage over them. But they can help on other fronts, such as tackling the humanitarian challenge in the Gaza Strip. As Biden travels to Israel, what are his specific goals? Above all, he wants to show solidarity with Israel in its time of tragedy. And in doing so, he’s hoping to send a signal to other parties — Iran, but also the armed militants of Hezbollah — to stay out of the fight. But he also has other goals, including convincing Israelis to do everything possible to minimize civilian casualties and allow in humanitarian relief as they wage war against Hamas. He’ll also likely make a strong statement about the need for Hamas to release its hostages. What are the chances he can make progress on those goals in the coming days? What will pushback look like? It’s one of those strange questions, right? Because what if he didn’t do these things? How bad could things get if the president of the United States wasn’t applying any pressure at all? There will likely be some progress made on getting Israel and Arab countries to agree on certain principles, such as allowing for humanitarian aid or not targeting hospitals. But whether those promises will be kept, and for how long, is another matter. In terms of pushback, the main public admonishments I can see happening would likely come from Arab leaders who will point to the decades-long plight of the Palestinians and ask Biden what he is going to do to fulfill the goal of establishing a Palestinian state. How does Biden hope to convince Israel to exercise restraint and caution in its response? Biden likely hopes that his long acquaintance with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will help him sell the argument that an operation that is too heavy-handed will almost certainly inspire global backlash. Thousands of Palestinians have already been killed, many of them innocent. He’ll also likely say, quite logically, that a long-term occupation of Gaza will only further Palestinian — and broader Arab — resentment of Israel. But Biden also can’t be seen as imposing too many conditions on Israel. That will lead to more Republican criticism of Biden back home. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at [email protected]. Or contact tonight’s author at [email protected] or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh.
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