By Alexander Ward

President Joe Biden meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in New York on Sept. 20, 2023. | Susan Walsh/AP

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With help from Eric Bazail-Eimil, Connor O’Brien and Daniel Lippman

The biggest takeaway from President JOE BIDEN’s “60 Minutes” interview was his warning that Israel shouldn’t militarily occupy Gaza.

“It'd be a big mistake,” he told CBS’ SCOTT PELLEY. “The extreme elements of Hamas don't represent all the Palestinian people, and I think that it would be a mistake for Israel to occupy Gaza again.”

Biden’s messaging was foremost about encouraging Israel to avoid a quagmire like the U.S. faced in places like Iraq, as fear in Washington rises that Israeli forces will enter Hamas-led Gaza without a clear exit strategy. But it also underscored a significant shift in how the administration is talking about conflict between Israel and Hamas, not only from week to week but also from the last crisis in 2021. The new tone, U.S. officials tell NatSec Daily, is purposefully tougher, aimed at both maintaining support for Israel and the moral high ground by advocating for innocent civilians.

“The humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza and the sheer number of Palestinian deaths even before the ground campaign begins have clearly speeded up the timetable for tougher conversations and restraining messages,” said the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s AARON DAVID MILLER.

Two years ago, the U.S. shortened a flare up between Israel and Hamas by staunchly backing Israel in public while privately pushing Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU to accept a ceasefire. As FRANKLIN FOER reported in his book The Last Politician, Biden devised the strategy “to smother Netanyahu with love” and “hug Bibi tight.” Only then, the president believed, would the Israeli leader be more receptive to increasingly public calls to end the retaliatory campaign on Gaza.

The order of magnitude is different now. The war started with a brutal attack by Hamas that killed 1,400 people, leading Israel to respond with more than 6,000 airstrikes that Hamas-aligned institutions claim have killed 2,700 people and demanded that all of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents pack into the enclave’s south ahead of a ground invasion.

After initially and repeatedly declaring the U.S. would always stand with Israel, just like in 2021, the U.S. now says the once-quiet part out loud: Defend yourself, but don’t go overboard.

Biden’s comment to “60 Minutes” followed Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN prompting Israel not to seek “revenge” and Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN stating in Egypt on Sunday “the way that Israel does this matters. It needs to do it in a way that affirms the shared values that we have for human life and human dignity, taking every possible precaution to avoid harming civilians.”

U.S. officials and experts cite two main reasons for the striking rhetorical changes.

The first, as the Brookings Institution’s NATAN SACHS outlined, is that ”Biden earned a lot of goodwill in the Israeli public with his public stance of solidarity.” The president is even open to visiting Israel as soon as this week to show support despite all the security challenges his visit would pose. Now the administration has more room “to influence Israeli public opinion and expectations for the war’s end,” said Sachs, who directs the think tank’s Center for Middle East Policy.

The second is that the White House underestimated the extent of progressive pushback in 2021 and doesn’t want to make that mistake again. Democratic lawmakers have already urged the administration to lean more on Israel and prioritize the humanitarian needs of Palestinians suffering under Israel’s siege and aerial assaults. Others have introduced a resolution calling for a ceasefire, a push echoed by 60 progressive, religious and antiwar groups, per a letter sent to the White House and Congress, obtained by NatSec Daily.

The question remains if Israel, which just experienced one of the deadliest and darkest days in its 75-year history, will demonstrate its democratic bona fides as it seeks the end of Hamas.

“We want to be in the twenty-first century,” Netanyahu told Israel’s parliament today, per an English translation, “not in animal brutality. We want to move toward the light, not the horrors that those murderers have created in our kibbutzim and all around the Gaza Strip.”

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CLOSED BORDER: Gaza’s border crossing with Egypt remains closed despite U.S. and other international requests to let foreigners and dual nationals through amid continuing fighting between Israel and Hamas.

The finger pointing has begun, The Washington Post reports. Egypt claims Israel is to blame because it won’t allow aid into the enclave. Israeli media claims the U.S. has placed too many humanitarian conditions before the gateway can open.

The Israeli siege of Gaza has winnowed the amount of food, water, fuel and electricity available to Gazans, including thousands of hospital patients. “If we run out of fuel, then we will lose all of the patients in the ICU, the babies in the incubators and the patients who need surgery,” WISSAM ABUJARAD, an anesthetist in Gaza, told the Post.

POLISH OPPOSITION POISED TO WIN: Exit polls today project that Poland’s opposition parties have won a majority in the country’s parliament, our own JAN CIENSKI reports. The results come after a bitterly contested election and follows criticisms of Poland’s ruling right-wing government for corruption in its ranks and its rows with the European Union over alleged democratic backsliding.

Three opposition parties have collectively won sufficient seats to deny the ruling party a possible coalition with their former far-right partners.

If able to form a coalition, DONALD TUSK, the former President of the European Council and leader of the largest opposition party, the Civic Coalition, has pledged his government would repair relations with Brussels and rebuild the country’s democratic institutions. Tusk would also back Ukraine with more vigor than the current government in Poland, he promised.

CAUGHT RED HANDED: New satellite imagery obtained by The Washington Post shows North Korea shipping weapons to Russia for the war in Ukraine, providing more evidence of the growing wartime link between Pyongyang and Moscow.

The pictures, analyzed by the London-based Royal United Services Institute, indicate “not one but two ships have been plying the route between the northeastern North Korean port of Rajin and a secure port facility in Dunai, in Russia’s Far East, making at least five round trips beginning mid-August through Saturday,” the Post’s MICHELLE YE HEE LEE and JOYCE SOHYUN LEE report. The images don’t show what is being transported, but the ships are linked to the Kremlin’s vast military logistics network.

This adds to intelligence released by the U.S. last week, indicating that the North Korea-Russia partnership was “expanding,” in the words of National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY. In recent weeks, North Korea has provided Russia with more than 1,000 containers of military equipment and munitions, he said. In return, the U.S. believes Pyongyang wants to obtain fighter jets, surface-to-air missiles, armored vehicles and equipment to make ballistic missiles, among other materials to build advanced technologies.

RUSSIA ATTACK FAILING?: A Russian offensive on an eastern Ukrainian city is faltering, per Ukrainian military officials, a sign that a significant Kremlin effort won’t succeed before the war’s 600th day is out.

Kyiv’s General Staff said it repelled 15 Russian attacks on Avdiivka over the last 24 hours, per The Associated Press’ ILLIA NOVIKOV, far fewer than the 60 strike attempts faced in the middle of last week. That suggests Moscow’s efforts have been “deflated,” VITALII BARABASH, head of the city administration, told the AP.

Still, claims by the Ukrainian officials are hard to confirm, and Kyiv’s forces have an interest in making their fight against the Russians look successful at any point. The Biden administration warned last week that Russia renewed its offensive in the east, including in places like Avdiivka.

IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

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BAD ISRAEL POLL FOR BIDEN: A poll released Sunday night about the Israel-Hamas war contained some bad news for Biden, mainly that few Americans trust him to make the right calls about the conflict.

The CNN survey, conducted by SSRS, showed only 16 percent of Americans think Biden will make correct decisions. The picture doesn’t get much prettier: 31 percent of people said they trust Biden moderately on the issue, with 26 percent answering they don’t have much trust. Another 28 percent said they had no trust at all — zero, zilch, nada.

There was a broad partisan fissure: 80 percent of Democrats showed signs of trust in Biden’s leadership compared with 46 percent of Independents and 13 percent of Republicans.

These findings were far different from the results of an ABC News/Ipsos poll from Sunday, which showed 41 percent approved of his handling of the war so far.

Still, the broader picture influences Biden’s 2024 pitch, as he’s made his defenses of partners and allies — and his handling of foreign policy writ large — a major pillar of his reelection pitch. But if Americans aren’t trusting him as a statesman, then that pitch might not resonate with the voting public.

AI ORDER NEAR? FICK YEAH: The Biden administration is working on releasing a massive, agency-oriented executive order on AI in a matter of weeks, America’s top cyber diplomat NATE FICK told our own STEVEN OVERLY on the POLITICO Tech podcast.

It’ll be “aligned with the G7 pact,” Fick said. “And it gets quite practical, with very concrete, specific tasks to individual agencies and elements of the U.S. government, with timelines attached for things that they must do.”

As our friends recap in Weekly Cybersecurity, the detail-rich pact made by leaders of the G7 in Kyoto last week is based on three principles: safety, security and trust. Fick said the executive order will provide more precise language on how to implement these principles in the context of AI development and deployment, and is also expected to hold the U.S. as the “moral authority” on AI governance.

This executive order is just the start, Fick said: “There will be more executive action, there may be more legislative action, there’ll certainly be much more multilateral action across all different fora, from the G7 to the G20 and the OECD.”

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LASER BEAM: Videos emerged Sunday of what appeared to be the first operational use of Israel’s Iron Beam air defense laser, but the Israel Defense Forces won’t confirm anything about it.

“At this stage, I am not aware of any such deployment and I cannot elaborate on the state of let's say operational readiness of that system,” JONATHAN CONRICUS, a spokesperson for the IDF, said Sunday night during a news briefing on X’s Spaces. “I can say that we are using all of the systems and personnel and capabilities at our disposal to defend our civilians from these relentless rocket attacks,” noting Israel has faced more 6,000 launches in the last week.

As our friends at Morning Defense note (for Pros!), the initial excitement was “a reminder that Israel is inching closer to fielding the weapon.”

The 100-kilowatt Iron Beam is set to work in tandem with the Iron Dome missile defense system, targeting shorter-range threats such as small drones, mortars and rockets at ranges of up to 7 miles. Biden witnessed a demonstration of the platform during a visit to Israel last year and was given a fragment of a drone that Iron Beam shot down during tests that March.

ALL IN ONE: The Biden administration has made no secret it wants Congress to take up a bill that provides emergency funding for Israel and Ukraine –– and that may even include support for Taiwan and beefing up defenses at the southern border.

“The president has made clear that he is going to go to Congress with a package of funding for Ukraine, as well as continued support for Israel. You can expect intensive engagement with Congress this very week, as we work on such a package and seek to secure bipartisan support for it,” national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told CBS’ “Face the Nation” host MARGARET BRENNAN on Sunday.

After Brennan asked if that package would total around $2 billion and include funds for Taiwan and the border, Sullivan replied “the number is going to be significantly higher than that.”

It’s quite the gauntlet the White House laid down as the Senate returned from recess today. Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER has already vowed to put some measure on the floor in the coming weeks, saying he would not wait for commensurate action in the House.

The future of such a measure is unclear, though, precisely because of the leadership turmoil and political makeup of the House. Hard-right Republicans are skeptical of increasing funds for Ukraine and Rep. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio), the current pick to become speaker, said he wouldn’t consider a Ukraine bill until issues at the border with Mexico had been addressed.

HAWKS FLOCK TO JORDAN: Two top GOP defense hawks –– House Armed Services Chair MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) and House Defense Appropriations Chair KEN CALVERT (R-Calif.) –– came out in support of Jordan’s bid for speaker after originally withholding their support, our colleague CONNOR O'BRIEN reports (for Pros!).

Both senior lawmakers made the surprise announcements Monday on social media that they'd flipped after separate conversations with Jordan.

Jordan still needs to lock down the 217 Republicans he'll need to win the speakership, but it's a signal that the resistance to his bid is cratering ahead of an expected vote on the House floor Tuesday.

PUTIN SWATS WAR WARNINGS: Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN dismissed assessments that the U.S. should prepare for war with China and Russia and warned Western powers that a war with Russia would surpass the ferocity of its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, according to Reuters’ GUY FAULCONBRIDGE.

The comments, made to a Russian journalist and revealed in a clip published Sunday, saw the Russian leader characterize suggestions of a war between the U.S. and Russia as unhealthy and “nonsense,” before saying that such comments didn’t perturb the Kremlin.

“I don't think it is serious. I think they are just scaring each other," Putin said.

Putin’s comments follow the release of a report by the Strategic Posture Commission, a bipartisan group of experts appointed by Congress, Thursday. Their report warned that the U.S. should prepare for a simultaneous war with Russia and China and called for a buildup of the U.S. nuclear arsenal in anticipation.

— Ivory Coast’s president has named ROBERT BEUGRE MAMBE as the country’s prime minister, Reuters reports. The move comes after President ALASSANE OUATTARA removed the previous prime minister, PATRICK ACHI, without explanation.

— Norwegian Foreign Minister ANNIKEN HUITFELDT was fired as part of a government reshuffle by the prime minister, Reuters reports. One reason for her ouster was that Huitfeldt’s husband traded shares in publicly listed companies.

— THOMAS WARRICK, The New York Times: I saw what happened to America’s postwar plans for Iraq. Here’s how Israel should plan for Gaza.

— Sen. TOM COTTON, Fox News: Biden is our $6 billion Mideast disaster thanks to his support of Iran

— KATHRYN JEAN LOPEZ, National Review: Watching never again happen again

— The Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: Transatlantic ties in an unstable world

— Georgetown University's Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, 12 p.m.: The Israel-Gaza war

— The Hudson Institute and Gamziri, 12:30 p.m.: Georgia’s heritage of freedom

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2:30 p.m.: The U.S. Coast Guard in an era of great power competition

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 p.m.: A discussion with UK First Sea Lord and Naval Staff Chief Adm. BEN KEY

— The Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation, 4 p.m.: A film screening and discussion on "China: The Uyghur Tragedy."

— The Institute for Policy Studies, 7 p.m.: The rising Latin American left: Mexico and beyond

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who never keeps her criticisms of us private.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is the king of constructive feedback.

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Lockheed Martin is collaborating with commercial companies to integrate our technologies and expertise with their capabilities to help first responders detect, predict and fight wildfires. Learn more.

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