By Zi-Ann Lum

Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it.

In today's edition:

→ The decision to cancel MÉLANIE JOLY’s foreign policy speech had nothing to do with what’s happening in the Middle East.

→ Israel’s Ambassador-designate IDDO MOED reveals the question he hasn’t stopped thinking about since Hamas launched surprise attacks from Gaza.

Mélanie Joly had been scheduled to share a high-level view of Canadian diplomacy today. | Andreea Alexandru/AP Photo

INVISIBILITY CLOAK — MÉLANIE JOLY was supposed to deliver a major foreign policy speech in Toronto today, but it was abruptly cancelled.

Media invitations went out last Thursday, teasing a “special keynote address,” one hosted by the Economic Club of Canada that promised Joly would deliver a high-level view of Canadian diplomacy in an era of “geopolitical uncertainty.”

It was postponed less than 24 hours later. Organizers cited “matters that require the Minister to stay in Ottawa.”

Hamas launched its surprise attacks on Israel the next day.

— Access to information: Playbook asked Joly’s office for more details about the “matters” that are keeping Joly Ottawa-bound. Her office confirmed the speech has been rescheduled to Oct. 30, saying only that “foreign policy matters” required the minister to stay in the capital.

— ‘Uncertainty,’ squared: The last time Joly delivered a major speech was at the Liberal convention in Ottawa in May — and that one barely had any foreign policy in it.

Canada’s relations with India have deteriorated since that address to a friendly audience.

Now, Joly is under pressure to offer a reset on last year’s Indo-Pacific strategy, one that reflects the current reality of Ottawa’s tense relations with India. The strategy cast the country as a critical partner, one with a “shared tradition of democracy and pluralism.”

— Another test: The weekend’s catastrophic security failure in Israel included more than 1,000 people dead in the country, including Canadians; another 900 killed in Gaza; more than 150 Israelis taken as hostages; and the ensuing impact of a total blockade in Gaza. It adds new challenges for Joly’s speech rewrite. Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU's war on Hamas will test and sort politicians’ of diaspora politics as deft or hapless, including Joly.

Netanyahu previously vowed to “extract a heavy price” after Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip fired rockets toward Israel in response to Israeli police raiding worshippers at the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem's Old City in April.

→ Further reading: In POLITICO Nightly, CALDER MCHUGH writes about the long shadow of Israel’s hostage crisis.

Israel’s new ambassador-designate to Canada tells Playbook his country is only expecting moral and political support from Ottawa right now — not military or munitions aid. Canada’s military inventory is limited in what it can offer on hand, its surplus weapons stock depleted to arm Ukraine.

— What’s next: TONDA MACCHARLES reports in the Star that the Trudeau government plans to airlift Canadians out of Israel.

Joly will hold a press conference in Ottawa this morning to discuss the situations. Chief of the Defense Staff WAYNE EYRE and JULIE SUNDAY, Global Affairs Canada assistant deputy minister for consular, security and emergency management, will join Joly.

When MP’s return next week, “Recent events in Israel, the West Bank and Gaza” happens to be the title of a new study by the House foreign affairs committee that has yet to meet since the attacks broke out. Expect hard questions from Conservative member MICHAEL CHONG on “consular and diplomatic failures” in getting Canadians out of Israel quickly.

— Later this week: Joly will be in Knowlton, Quebec on Friday to support a “cocktail dinner” fundraiser for Heritage Minister PASCALE ST-ONGE.

— Questions for tomorrow: U.S. national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN saidmultiple questions about Israel’s Iron Dome Tuesday were queries better taken up with the Israeli government. U.S. President JOE BIDEN pledged more ammunition and interceptors to Israel on top of the $3.8 billion the country sends there annually.

“We’re going to make sure that Israel does not run out of these critical assets to defend its cities and its citizens,” he said.

Israel’s Iron Dome failure brings to mind Canada’s acquisition of the same technology in 2015 to intercept incoming hostile projectiles. “Our troops deserve the best,” former Conservative defense minister JASON KENNEY said at the time.

The new medium-range radar is supposed to be in “initial operating capability” this fall.

UNRELATED, BUT ALSO POSTPONED — “Unforeseen circumstances” forced Parliamentary Budget Officer YVES GIROUX to delay the release of a new costing note that was supposed to be out on the Friday before Thanksgiving.

Giroux’s office told Playbook the report (titled “Applying the Canada Recovery Dividend to Fossil Fuel Companies”) is still coming — at a later date that has yet to be announced.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau greets Ambassador-designate of Israel to Canada Iddo Moed on Monday in Ottawa. | Justin Tang l The Canadian Press

FOR THE RECORD — This weekend saw the worst attack against Israel in 50 years.

Israel’s Ambassador-designate IDDO MOED called Playbook to discuss what happened, how tech companies and government regulators’ can play a role — as well as why he believes Iran is a culprit, despite an Israel Defense Force spokesperson stating “We have no evidence or proof” of Tehran’s involvement.

Moed has been on the job for six weeks but has yet to present his credentials to Governor General MARY SIMON.

The technicality means he can’t meet directly with elected officials, which would make his job of shoring up political support tricky. But Moed landed in a country led federally by politicians who have offered only unwavering support for Israel.

This Q&A has been edited for length and clarity.

How are you doing? How is your family?

Considering the circumstances, me and my family are fine. But we are very worried about the situation in Israel.

Can you help us understand what Israel's short-term needs are from Ottawa?

First and foremost, political and moral support for its combat against terrorism, for the fight against terrorism, and specifically against Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. And, of course, looking at Iran as a player that is behind these attacks as a source for further escalation in the region.

You mentioned Iran. You told The Canadian Jewish News that you think Iran is behind the Hamas attack. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN told CNN on Sunday that the U.S. has yet to see evidence of Iran’s link. French President EMMANUEL MACRON has said the same . Is there evidence to back the claim that there’s a connection to Iran?

There have been some recent publications that already point to statements made by Hamas leaders to that effect.

But if we look at the circumstances in the Middle East [during the] last few weeks in August, and we see the meetings that were taking place between the heads of the Al-Quds Force, which is the chief initiator of global terrorism, and we see they've met with heads of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other terrorist organizations, like Hezbollah in Beirut, with the presence of the Iranian minister of foreign affairs, then you see there is a clear link.

All in all, it's clear that there is direct involvement in what is happening right now.

And beyond that, the context, the praise that they received from Tehran, from the highest leadership, from President EBRAHIM RAISI and others, the cheers in the streets — all of that points to very clear support — material and moral support and political support — for Hamas and Palestinian organizations.

You’ve yet to present your credentials to the governor general so you can’t make direct contact with Canadian politicians until that takes place. Has this complicated your work in Ottawa over the last few days?

The question of the support and friendship and solidarity from Canada to Israel is very clear, very strong and very solid. This is the most important aspect of my duty here. How that is happening, how that is expressed, that's sort of a side issue.

For example, [on Monday night], at the Jewish Community Center, there was an event taking place expressing solidarity. It was solidarity of the Jewish Federation of Ottawa, with Israel with the presence of the prime minister with the presence of the official head of the opposition, and I was there, the mayor of Ottawa — and all of us together. We're supporting, expressing the same thing.

Israel is in a time of danger. Israel requires support. Israel has the right to defend itself. And we’re all there together in it.

Israel is looking to the United States for additional aid. Is political instability in Washington a factor in Israel’s requests for munitions and aid help?

I can't comment on what is happening in Washington.

In response to the attacks, Prime Minister Netanyahu declared war on Hamas and a total blockade of the Gaza Strip. How will that affect Palestinians’ daily lives going forward, specifically civilians who’ve had nothing to do with the attacks?

We have to consider that the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip’s lives have been taken hostage by Hamas terror organizations for years. They have not been able to develop themselves. They have not been able to benefit from money from the international community, from donors from the international community, from billions and billions of dollars that were all siphoned to create this enormous war mechanism, with tunnels, with rockets, with weapons, with drones — with all the technology and the capabilities they've developed — all of that was money that was taken away from the Palestinians in Gaza.

Israel, right now, is reacting and has declared war on Hamas terrorism. Terrorists hide within the population. Still, Israel does its utmost to prevent innocent bystanders from being harmed. But at the same time, we have to defend the people of Israel. Hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of them have been slaughtered. This cannot continue. So this is a war.

Outside of the conflict zone, there’s a perennial risk of antisemitism spreading. Graphic videos shared on social media are potential conduits for this — and it’s also media that can inflict trauma on viewers. What are your thoughts on what diaspora Jews and and non-Jews can do to mitigate the spread of antisemitism at this time? Is there a role for tech companies to play?

That's a very timely question. We have to address antisemitism and the spread of hatred in general, and the spread of extreme violent content in media in any possible way. We have to stand up against this. And we have to understand this is important because otherwise people's brains are washed by the most incredulous images and the result is what we've seen — barbaric behavior.

What we need is both the private sector and the government regulators to come together quickly, and come up with ideas, concrete steps, to mitigate this. This goal is global. It's not just in Israel or Canada. It's a global thing because the internet is global. That is really required right now, immediately.

What’s a concern or question you haven’t stopped thinking about since Oct. 7?

I'll tell you. The history of the people of Israel is long. Many times they, whoever they were, tried to kill us, to eliminate us. They never succeed. The question that I ask myself: What will be the price? Because it's going to be a heavy price.

But we will persevere. We will endure. We will overcome this. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind about that. The question is, what will be the price?

— Other views: Playbook reached out to the Palestinian general delegation in Ottawa for comment on Israel’s total blockade of Gaza, but did not receive a response by deadline.

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Hay River, Northwest Territories for a briefing and site visit related to the recent wildfires. He meets with leaders from the Northwest Territory Métis Nation and has no plans for a media availability.

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Marrakech, Morocco, for G7 and G20 finance ministers’ meetings, plus International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings.

— National Defense Minister BILL BLAIR is in Brussels to participate in the 16th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group and a meeting of NATO defense ministers.

— Federal, provincial and territorial health ministers meet in Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, for a two-day summit co-chaired by Health Minister MARK HOLLAND, Mental Health and Addictions Minister YA'ARA SAKS and P.E.I. Health and Wellness Minister MARK MCLANE.

8 a.m. (9 a.m. AT) The House finance committee will be at the Fredericton Convention Centre to hear the “budgetary priorities” of New Brunswickers.

8:30 a.m. Statistics Canada releases housing numbers on new residential properties in 2022.

9 a.m. Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY holds a press conference in Ottawa to discuss the war between Israel and Hamas.

12 p.m. Global Affairs Canada, immigration and national defense officials host a technical background briefing on the situation unfolding in Israel and the Gaza Strip.

12:30 p.m. (9:30 a.m. PT) Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE is in Kelowna, British Columbia with plans to hold a press conference.

1 p.m. Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc and Justice Minister Arif Virani are in Bromont, Quebec to co-host a FPT public safety and justice ministers meeting at the Hôtel Château-Bromont. A media advisory states only cameras are allowed for a photo-op.

9 p.m. (6 p.m. PT) Poilievre will be in Oliver, British Columbia, to hold a “bring it home” rally. The location is in the federal riding of South Okanagan-West Kootenay, held by NDP MP RICHARD CANNINGS, who will not be re-running in the next election.

Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. speaks during a campaign event on Oct. 9, 2023, in Philadelphia. | Matt Rourke/AP

THE RFK JR. CHALLENGE — ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. is poised to be the most formidable independent U.S. presidential candidate in more than two decades, POLITICO’s STEVEN SHEPARD writes.

— The state of play: A combination of his famous name and widespread voter dissatisfaction with both likely major party nominees puts RFK Jr. in position to earn the largest share of the vote for an independent candidate since ROSS PEROT drew nearly 19 percent in the 1992 election.

— Shepard writes: “Democrats aren’t excited by Joe Biden’s campaign, and many say they wish he wasn’t running again. But Kennedy likely isn’t the right candidate to pull them away. And in the course of the campaign, it’s probably more likely Kennedy’s independent bid would ultimately hurt Donald Trump.”

BIDEN’S STRESS TESTS — POLITICO’s JONATHAN LEMIRE, ADAM CANCRYN and JENNIFER HABERKORN look at the domestic and global challenges faced by U.S. President Joe Biden and his team:

“The outbreak of violence in Israel, with fears that it could erupt into a larger war, represents the latest — and potentially most difficult. The ongoing war in Ukraine, meanwhile, shows little sign of resolution, with Republicans souring on Biden’s requests for further military assistance. A looming government shutdown threatens critical programs. Republicans ousted their speaker, producing historic chaos in the House. The surging number of migrants at the border has left the administration searching for answers. And the persistent United Auto Workers strike could soon have tangible economic ripple effects.”

— Notes for the PMO: “West Wing aides and Democrats close to the White House described an administration keenly aware that its handling of the next several days and weeks could fundamentally define Biden’s legacy.”

— The New Yorker’s SUSAN GLASSER writes on U.S. national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN and the White House’s battle to keep Ukraine in the fight.

— A RCMP criminal investigation into Ontario Premier DOUG FORD’s Greenbelt land swap is on. The Toronto Star’s ROB BENZIE, KRISTIN RUSHOWY and ROB FERGUSON have the details.

— Over on The Bell substack, PALLAWI ANAND and IAN LUPTON assess the Indo-Canadian relationship and ask: Is diplomacy possible after murder?

— Elle Canada has an excerpt from SOPHIE GRÉGOIRE TRUDEAU’s new book, “Closer Together” about her curiosity in “our unique emotional alignment.” It comes out on April 23.

— EMILY BLAKE of Cabin Radio explores a timely question: What long-term health consequences will NWT wildfire smoke have? 

— Journalist and author AMIR TIBON offers an eyewitness account to The Atlantic: “I understood exactly what was happening: that Hamas has infiltrated our kibbutz, that there are terrorists outside my window, and that I’m locked in my house and inside my safe room with two young girls, and I don’t know if anyone is going to come to save us.”

— Over the weekend, an audio clip appearing to show U.K. opposition leader KEIR STARMER swearing at staffers went viral. POLITICO’s TOM BRISTOW considers the implications of a deepfake moment. 

Our latest policy newsletter for Pro subscribers from KYLE DUGGAN, ZI-ANN LUM and SUE ALLAN: Tentative deal ends auto strike in 13 hours.

→ In news for subscribers from BJARKE SMITH-MEYER:

GLOBAL TAX REFORM: U.S. Senate Finance Chair RON WYDEN (D-Ore.) and the panel’s top Republican, Sen. MIKE CRAPO of Idaho, prodded the Biden administration Tuesday to let Ottawa know that there will be retaliation if Canada follows through with the digital tax.

“You must now make clear that your office will immediately respond using available trade tools upon Canada’s enactment of any DST,” Wyden and Crapo wrote to KATHERINE TAI, the U.S. trade representative, after noting that USTR had already warned that all options would be on the table unless the Trudeau government backs off.

Here's the story for Pro subscribers.

In other news for Pros: 

— New Middle East war delivers a new threat to world economy.

— IBM CEO: Washington should hold tech firms accountable for AI.

— Senate climate hawks move to strike IRA's pro-oil language.

— Oil giants unveil 'game-ending' strategy to kill climate cases.

— Israel and the West reckon with a high-tech failure.

Birthdays: HBD to BONNIE LEASK of Blackbird Strategies. The late JIM CARR was born on this day in 1951.

Is there an upcoming birthday we should know about? Email us: [email protected]

Spotted: MARK CARNEY, joining the fray via a video message to the U.K. Labour Party’s annual conference. Carney, who served as the U.K.’s top banker from 2013 to 2020, heaped praise on Shadow Chancellor RACHEL REEVES and said it was "beyond time" her plans were put "into action." Some observers accused Carney of politicizing the Bank of England. 

The House of Commons on the hunt for pages. Deadline: Nov. 8, 2023 … A notice from Ottawa Public Health about flu vaccines and updated Covid-19 shots on offer starting today.

Michelin North America (Canada) lobbying Innovation Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE’s chief of staff, IAN FOUCHER, last month on “economic development” plus ISED Strategic Innovation Fund officials MITCH DAVIES and DENIS MARTEL, too.

Movers and shakers: ROBERT LEURER, appointed as the new chief justice of Saskatchewan … D. BLAIR NIXON, appointed the new associate chief justice of the Court of King’s Bench of Alberta in Calgary.

HEATHER CAMERON, retiring from the public service after 35 years, most recently serving as Canada’s consul general in São Paulo.

Farewells: CBC and Radio-Canada’s broadcast of the National Research Council 1 p.m. ET time signal, and end to an 80-year tradition.

Send Playbookers tips to [email protected] .

Parliament does not sit this week; business is scheduled to return Oct. 16.

Tuesday’s answer: Canada’s Parliament Buildings first officially opened June 6, 1866.

Props to JOHN ALHO, GERMAINE MALABRE, ALYSON FAIR, QASIR DAR, BOB GORDON and GEORGE SCHOENHOFER.

Think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best.

Wednesday’s question: On this day in 1869, who did ÉDOUARD MARION discover on his land?

Answers to [email protected]

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, Lui