By Olivia Olander and Nick Niedzwiadek

AND NOBODY ANNOUNCES IT … will it reflect in any data?

Fears over job replacement due to artificial intelligence were a major sticking point in the Hollywood writers strike that ended last week. In their agreement — which still needs to be ratified — writers and production companies decided that AI can’t be credited as a writer, and writers can’t be forced to use AI software in their work, according to the guild.

But not every employee has AI-specific job protections. And if employers don’t actively announce Job changes due to generative AI, tracking its eventual impact on the workforce will be challenging, whether it comes in the form of assisting or replacing human workers, experts said.

It’s “a very difficult thing” to find a single factor that led someone to leave a job, said Michael Chui, a partner at the McKinsey Global Institute who co-wrote a report on generative AI and the future of work.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks when people leave jobs and what industries are seeing displacement, but not always specifically why they left. BLS used to track mass layoffs and their causes, but that practice was suspended due to budget cuts a decade ago.

That McKinsey Global Institute report said an additional 12 million occupational transitions might be needed by 2030, with lower wage workers and women more likely to need to change jobs. Still, even that number represents just a snapshot of the net shift during that time period, with potentially millions more job changes between now and then, Chui said.

Understanding the use cases of available AI products could be another side door to understanding whose jobs are most at risk, said Michael Handel, a social scientist who has previously worked with BLS. Another path would be tracking jobs using AI, because that would be easier to follow than the absence of jobs, he said.

“You’ll hear what is by now a well-worn, cliched phrase. That is: ‘People won’t be replaced by AI, people will be replaced by people who know how to use AI.’”

But, he added: “Nobody’s tracking that either.”

GOOD MORNING. It’s Monday, Oct. 2. Welcome back to Morning Shift, your go-to tipsheet on labor and employment-related immigration. It’s been 202 days since the Senate received Julie Su’s nomination. Send feedback, tips and exclusives to [email protected] and [email protected]. Follow us on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @NickNiedz and @oliviaolanderr.

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HARASSMENT GUIDANCE: The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission unveiled revamped guidance Friday on workplace harassment that solidifies protections for LGBT workers, after a previous iteration was stymied under the Trump administration.

Chief among the changes is updated language related to sex-based discrimination that accounts for the Supreme Court’s 2020 decision in Bostock v. Clayton County, which held federal anti-bias laws prohibit discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity.

The guidance document, which was made public Friday and will be subject to a public comment period over the fall, also makes clear that discriminatory actions based on a worker's abortion decisions fall under the category of sex-based discrimination, Nick reports for Pros.

COMING SOON: The Labor Department's retooled rules surrounding which workers can be classified as independent contractors is nearing conclusion, Nick reports for Pros.

DOL submitted language Thursday to the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, an arm of the Office of Management and Budget that serves as the White House’s clearing house on federal rulemaking.

Such reviews are typically one of the final steps before regulations are publicly released and can typically take between several weeks or months, depending on things like a rule’s complexity or economic impact.

CASSIDY PRESSES EEOC ON ABORTION: The top Republican on the Senate HELP Committee called on the EEOC Friday to drop abortion language in its rules expanding workplace protections for pregnant workers.

In August, the agency rolled out proposed regulations to implement the Pregnant Workers Fairness Act. The law applies to pregnancy, childbirth and “related medical conditions,” which under the EEOC’s definition includes “having or choosing not to have an abortion.” That has set off Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who helped push for the legislation.

“The goal of the PWFA is to ensure a safe workplace for pregnant mothers and their unborn children,” Cassidy wrote in a letter. “Using it instead to advance abortion access via regulation corrupts bipartisan legislation and leaves the Commission open to legal challenges on several grounds.”

More hill news: “Sen. Kaine eyes another measure to make shutdowns less frequent,” from Government Executive.

ALJ DEALS BLOW TO STARBUCKS: A NLRB judge on Thursday ruled that Starbucks violated labor law by denying pay and benefit increases last year to unionized stores it extended to ones that had not organized.

Then-CEO Howard Schultz last August announced that Starbucks would be raising its minimum wage to $15 an hour, implement credit card tip prompts and faster sick time accrual to all stores — save those that unionized. The company claimed that federal law required them to negotiate those policies with the union instead of extending them unilaterally, an argument Judge Mara-Louise Anzalone rejected as farcical.

Anzalone’s decision said Starbuck’s position “so misapprehended basic labor law concepts that it considered itself compelled to deny wage and benefit increases on the basis of employees’ union activities without even considering bargaining with the union or deferring its award of new pay and benefits for unionizing partners.”

Starbucks Workers United said that, with the decision, “Starbucks has finally been held accountable for their despicable carrot-and-stick union-busting strategy.”

A Starbucks spokesperson said it will be filing an appeal and the company posted a statement calling Anzalone’s ruling an “untenable situation … where employers violate the law if they unilaterally include organizing or unionized employees when making changes in wages and benefits, and violate the law if they do not do so.”

KEEPING AN EYE ON: Some 75,000 Kaiser Permanente workers could walk off the job for three days this week starting Wednesday, as they demand better pay and staffing, NPR reports.

ICYMI: “UAW announces more walkouts at Ford, GM,” from your hosts.

More union news: “Stellantis' last-minute bargaining move with the UAW saved Michigan jobs — for now,” from the Detroit Free Press.

MESSAGING MISTAKE? Some Democrats fear the “Bidenomics” brand was a misstep, as voters often still don’t credit the president with steering the nation “into an era of wage gains and near-record-low unemployment,” our Adam Cancryn and Holly Otterbein report.

“The rising cost of living remains a dominant theme in voters’ minds, crowding out major gains in jobs and wages. And so far, the Bidenomics drumbeat that began earlier this summer has yet to prove it can change their minds,” Adam and Holly report.

More workplace news: “As employers face labor shortages, Biden administration rolls out playbook for training workers,” from The Associated Press.

STRIKE UI VETOED: Gov. Gavin Newsom on Saturday vetoed a bill extending unemployment insurance to striking workers, denying labor’s signature policy proposal from a summer of strikes, our Jeremy B. White reports.

In his veto message, Newsom cited a funding shortfall in the state's unemployment insurance trust fund that’s been pegged at around $18 billion and could rise to $20 billion — a cost that will be borne by employers.

LABOR LAWSUIT: A group of Chinese immigrants are suing a former candidate for president of the Navajo Nation, a businessman from China and others, as they allege they were lured to New Mexico to work without pay trimming marijuana, our Natalie Fertig and Mona Zhang report.

The details: “The 15 plaintiffs … say in the complaint they were recruited (many in California) to jobs advertised as ‘cutting flowers’ for $200 a day. When they arrived in Farmington, their phones and car keys were taken. According to the suit, they were not allowed to leave, were physically mistreated, and still have not received any compensation for their work,” Natalie and Mona report, in another possible example of forced labor and human trafficking in the unlicensed cannabis industry.

More in the states: “Bay Area Subway franchisee fined $1 million, ordered to sell businesses after wage theft investigation,” from The Press Democrat.

GROWING IN THE GOLDEN STATE: POLITICO California is growing, reinforcing our role as the indispensable insider source for reporting on politics, policy and power. From the corridors of power in Sacramento and Los Angeles to the players and innovation hubs in Silicon Valley, we're your go-to for navigating the political landscape across the state. Exclusive scoops, essential daily newsletters, unmatched policy reporting and insights — POLITICO California is your key to unlocking Golden State politics. LEARN MORE.

— “Trump’s bashing electric cars. He has lots of company in Europe,” from our Suzanne Lynch, David Ferris, James Bikales and Timothy Cama.

— “Biden, Trump visits fall flat for autoworkers girding for long strike,” from The Washington Post.

— “America’s Eyes Are on Unions,” from The Atlantic.

— “Pension Funds Go Cold on Private Equity,” from The Wall Street Journal.

— “Why Can’t We Stop Unauthorized Immigration? Because It Works,” from The New York Times Magazine.

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