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Crises management

A daily look inside Canadian politics and power.
Aug 22, 2023 View in browser
 

By Kyle Duggan

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Ottawa Playbook will not publish Aug. 28 through Sept. 4. We’ll be back in your inboxes Tuesday, Sept. 5.

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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it.

In today's edition:

→ Focus on housing in the East, wildfires out West.

→ The case for setting a fiscal anchor.

DRIVING THE DAY

A helicopter battles a wildfire in West Kelowna, British Columbia, on Aug. 17, 2023. | AFP via Getty Images

FROM ONE CRISIS TO ANOTHER — It tops the agenda right across Canada.

On the East Coast at the government’s Cabinet retreat, it’s briefing time with experts on what it will take to fix the staggering problems of housing affordability and availability.

Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU was pressed by reporters and the opposition Monday, with Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE jabbing that the retreat focusing on housing comes just a few “weeks after he said housing is not his job.”

But on the other side of the country, it’s at the forefront in a very different way. Many Canadians fled to safety from dangerous wildfires and are waiting to return home. Some of those no longer exist.

— Center of the information storm: Conservative MP DAN ALBAS, who represents the B.C. riding of Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola where wildfires have raged, is working on overdrive — tracking developments, trying to pull answers from all levels of government and fielding questions from anxious constituents who “don't know when they can return or what they'll return to.”

One of his own staffers even had to evacuate to safety.

The federal government said it will help British Columbia however it can, but Albas is still searching for details about resources: what and where will get priority. “A lot of my constituents say, ‘Are more [resources] coming?’ And the answer is yes, but we just don't know where,” Albas said.

Officials said the fires have claimed at least 50 buildings in West Kelowna but they were still assessing the damage at last check.

“There's obviously been some loss of structures on Westside Road,” Albas said of the curvy road in the heart of the Okanagan. “Those are going to be devastating because many people built their whole lives there and in some cases, this was going to be their piece of paradise for retirement.”

The biggest challenge the area faced: how fluidly the fires were moving.

West Kelowna is serviced by just one hydro line — something that could have complicated an already difficult situation.

“It's unfortunate that when these things happen, we really see how many of our systems have no redundancies,” Albas said.

— What’s next: After things start to clear up and people can start returning home, then comes dealing with insurance and the wait for government aid. Albas said some constituents have not yet had their claims from last year’s floods through the Disaster Financial Assistance Program fully processed.

— In related listening: On The Decibel this morning: What it’s like to escape from wildfires.

— Concerning outlook: NDP MP RICHARD CANNINGS, who represents South Okanagan—West Kootenay which neighbors Albas’ riding, said his area has dealt with less danger but days of smoke. It’s affecting residents and led to a major tourism draw being cancelled: the Ironman triathlon, scheduled for this weekend.

And the concern is always that the situation could quickly turn.

“When you get unstable weather conditions, you often get lightning, and once you combine lightning with high winds, that's a real bad news story. So, the real fear in my riding is new fire starting, and it can start any second,” he said. “We had a huge fire barrier 20 years ago that wiped out a couple of communities and it started with one cigarette.”

Cannings is calling for a national wildfire-fighting force to prepare for a future with more disasters in store from climate change: “The takeaway is that this is the way things are going to be, if not worse ... so this is something we really have to be prepared for.”

— Shots at Meta: B.C.’s NDP Premier DAVID EBY called on Meta to reconsider its news-blocking policy on its networks that were “built, frankly, on the backs of local media,” during the provincial emergency.

"It feels a bit like they are holding British Columbians for ransom to make a point with Ottawa."

Eby said while B.C. had ended its ad spends on Meta platforms in protest, it resumed doing so during the emergency since getting critical information out can be a “matter of life and death.”

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS


— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU attends the Cabinet retreat in Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island.

HALLWAY CONVERSATION

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly in the House in March 2023. | AP

TALKING TO CANADIANS — The Business Council of Canada’s GOLDY HYDERwrote to Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU ahead of this week’s Cabinet retreat asking him to prioritize spending restraint by setting a meaningful fiscal anchor, as well as moving on tax incentives and speeding up permitting reforms.

The prime minister’s office has billed the retreat as focusing on affordability, economic growth and housing.

ROBERT ASSELIN, senior vice president of policy at the Business Council of Canada and former adviser to BILL MORNEAU, sat down with Playbook recently for a roundtable conversation about some of the pressing concerns over Ottawa’s fiscal situation.

Here are the highlights, edited for length and clarity.

What was your biggest takeaway from the last fiscal monitor ?

When I track the numbers, I see a bigger deficit than they forecast. Expenditures that are higher compared to last year.

But revenues will probably go down because of the contraction that is coming.

Even if there's not a recession, revenues will be less than forecasted, and then much higher debt-servicing costs because of interest rates. And that results in the debt-to-GDP ratio going up, most likely this year — and maybe next year, too.

It looked like public debt-servicing charges had basically wiped out revenues.

It is crazy. This is why we put this Dodge paper out. It is possible the government will bust [the Dodge fiscal anchor] this year.

The issue is not that we're going to go back to the ’90s tomorrow, but the trend is clear.

We're getting to a situation where the more you pay on debt servicing, the less you've got for other things.

That's just simple math.

The government’s response is always that Canada is doing better than other G-7 countries. What do you think about that?

The federal government's math is pretty straightforward. So, you pay transfers to provinces, you give transfers to individuals like OAS [Old Age Security], and child benefits, then you pay for defense, a few programs and your employees.

At the end of that, new spending without raising revenues needs to be deficit-financed.

So they are kind of tied to this situation now where it would be really hard to cut significantly. The other question down the road is the need to raise revenue [somehow]. And this is where I'm nervous.

If you were CHRYSTIA FREELAND, what would you say right now?

I would first act on growth measures. Let’s put forward a 10-year plan to get to GDP per capita that is better than now.

There are four things the government could immediately do:

Permitting reform on big projects could have a big influence on investments.

All these tax credits they promise for the energy transition — they're still not in place. That's a big problem if you’re in Alberta and all these CCUS [carbon capture, utilization and storage] projects are still not moving.

Third would be to signal a clear fiscal anchor to say to the business community, “look, there was a pandemic, we spent a lot, but we won't go [past this mark].”

And the fourth is the program review they've been talking about for two budgets now.

How would you talk to Canadians if you were advising Freeland?

I'm not saying it's easy when you have high inflation, but the government should have a progress agenda — they need to be seen as wanting to grow the economy so that living standards get better, wages get better for people — not talking GDP and so on. “I want to get to a place where Canada will enable you to have a better quality of life” is the way I would talk about it.

MEDIA ROOM


— In L’actualité, PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER shared results of a poll that found 47 percent of respondents would be more inclined to vote Liberal if Trudeau was not party leader.

— For La Presse, JOEL-DENIS BELLAVANCE obtained a CSIS document under the Access to Information Act about the national security agency taking a deeper look at the Chinese “police stations” reported on Canadian soil.

— The Big Story pod talks to CP’s BOB WEBER about Alberta’s pause on approvals for new renewable projects.

— DONALD TRUMP is due to surrender to law enforcement this week in Fulton County, Ga., for processing on the 41-count indictment handed down last week. POLITICO’s TERESA WILTZ reports from ground zero in the battle over democracy.

— CBC News’ ELIZABETH THOMPSON analyzed governor-in-council appointments and found 24 percent of posts are vacant or filled by someone who’s blown past their end date.

— The Globe and Mail’s TU THANH HA fills in the details of SIDNEY ITZKOWITZ’s incredible life after a Montreal funeral home posted a simple notice about the Montreal man’s death, noting only that he was a Holocaust survivor.

— Trudeau’s former press secretary CECELY ROY pens a post as DComm for the Mortgage Professionals Canada, recalling a Liberal platform promise as a potential solution for closing the housing affordability gap for millennials.

PROZONE


For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter: Quibbling while homes burn.

In other news for POLITICO Pro subscribers: 
— Beijing is coming for the metaverse.
— Biden taps new top labor adviser.
— Datapoint: FAA bill seeks remedy for air traffic controller staffing.
— New York City’s energy grid faces a power shortfall. Here’s why.
— How Russian hackers targeted NATO’s Vilnius summit.

Playbookers


Birthdays: Former Reform MP ELWIN HERMANSON,  and HBD + 1 to Navigator’s GRAHAM FOX.

Spotted: U.S. Rep. LAUREN BOEBERT (R-Colo.) chiming in on Canadian politics with a false and misleading claim about Bill C-18 … Sen. STAN KUTCHER calling it “Nonsense.”

Liberal Party President SACHIT MEHRA’s Batman socks … NDP MP LORI IDLOUT celebrating her eldest’s wedding over the weekend … A “Today’s Special: Fair Pay” sign on the TVO picket line in Toronto.

Movers and shakers: MARK CARNEY has been named non-executive chair of a revamped board of directors at Bloomberg LP, the Globe's JAMES BRADSHAW reports.

KEVIN BANKSTON has announced he’s leaving his role as director of Meta’s AI policy team.

EVELYNE COULOMBE has started her post in Berlin as Canada’s deputy ambassador to Germany.

Media mentions: Columnist CHANTAL HÉBERT announced she’s letting go of her weekly column in The Toronto Star: “I will be back for special occasions, including the next election campaign.”

Ex-Walrus editor in chief JESSICA JOHNSON escaping Toronto to become a visiting writing student at the Banff Centre’s Leighton Artists Studios.

Farewells: Former Rogers executive PHIL LIND has died at age 80 … U.S. Ambassador DAVID COHEN, an ex-telecom executive, paid tribute to his friend.

TRIVIA


Monday’s answer: It’s author DAVID WEALE’s book, “The True Meaning Of Crumbfest” that inspired those little bronze mouse statues found in Charlottetown.

Props to NANCI WAUGH, TERESA WRIGHT, ELLA D’SILVA, GORDON RANDALL, KATE MCKENNA, LAURA JARVIS, STU NEATBY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, W. SCOTT THURLOW, GANGA WIGNARAJAH and HEATHER CHIASSON.

Hey trivia aficionados: Do you have a harder trivia question? Shoot it our way.  

Today’s question: A year ago on this date, Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU hosted German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ at a “Welcome to Canada” dinner. Where was it held?

Answers to [email protected].

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Run a Playbook ad campaign. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: [email protected].

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, Luiza Ch. Savage and Emma Anderson.

 

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