Yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released monthly inflation data, showing the consumer price index (CPI) for all urban consumers rising at a 5.4% year-on-year pace.  In the wor… Read More

As noted above, more durable inflation is becoming clearer on the horizon, driven by hard-to-resolve supply chain issues and rising labor costs in particular.  Wages are rising, particu… Read More

In recent weeks, a piece of news and a piece of commentary, which we show you below, crossed our desk — items which were interesting enough taken in isolation, but which became even mo… Read More

The broad U.S. stock indices remain close to their all-time highs.  However, those indices are constructed in a way that heavily over-emphasizes the largest listed companies.  A di… Read More

Whatever else they can’t agree on — and it’s a lot — the fans of fossil fuels and the promoters of green energy solutions can agree on one thing: they all think an oi… Read More

Is there something strange in the water in Washington — or perhaps are we approaching the “haunted house” season where strange and scary things come out to spook us? … Read More

The economic tale of the pandemic, as we’ve often written in the past year and half, has been one where the acceleration of pre-existing trends has been remarkable — especially w… Read More

U.S. stock indexes came close to their first real correction in almost a year (however, many individual stocks have been correcting for weeks or months).  Of the selection of possible c… Read More

Water, and the state of U.S. drinking and wastewater systems, entered into the mind of U.S. investors during the Flint water crisis back in 2014.  Since then, an acceleration has occurr… Read More

Goldman Sachs summarized the recent official inflation print:  “August core CPI rose by 0.10% month-over-month, and the year-on-year rate declined three tenths to 4.0%…&nbs… Read More

U.S. Stocks September thus far has seen a modest decline in the S&P 500, which historically has been typical after a period of many months of positive returns.  There are many po… Read More

Since it peaked in February, the U.S. biotech industry has endured a slide that has taken it into bear market territory for the year.  Retail investors typically approach this industry… Read More

In many respects, a relative goldilocks period seems to be ending.  Growth, revenue, and profit recoveries have lapped pandemic lows.  Further direct consumer stimulus is not forth… Read More

Last week, we discussed the “liquidity supernova” that has helped drive global stock market indices to new highs, even in the face of many potential challenges — new covid… Read More

It was a great Q2 2021 earnings reporting season, as anticipated, with U.S. firms as a whole beating estimates by 19% (versus a 2% average beat over the period of 2000-2019).  From this… Read More

If you are a market participant who can’t shake the feeling that you have lost your touch for anticipating market behavior, you are not alone.  We have taken to simply reminding i… Read More

While listening to the recent round of quarterly conference calls, we noted that most managements were still discussing supply-chain issues — and saying that these were problems that h… Read More

Does the collapse of the U.S.-backed Afghan government matter? It certainly matters to many Afghani individuals who hitched themselves to the American star, and seem to have been unceremo… Read More

The message from earnings season is clear: the negative earnings impact of the pandemic, index-wide, is over.  The chart below shows annualized two-year EPS growth. Source:  Deu… Read More

Last week, we commented on the likely persistence of the post-pandemic “new normal” in technology, mentioning specifically remote work and e-commerce.  In both cases, covid… Read More

Two weeks remain until the Federal Reserve’s annual policy meeting at Jackson Hole, from which we may well learn more about the Fed’s intentions on monetary policy.  In t… Read More

Really, there is only one long-term question facing investors at this juncture.  Will the “new normal” that has emerged from the pandemic be enduring?  Or will it prove… Read More

We believe that inflation will hover from 3–5% for the next several years, even as it falls from June’s CPI print: 5.4% over the previous 12 months, and 0.9% month-on-month. F… Read More

In early June, Chinese ride-hailing giant Didi Chuxing [DIDI] filed for a public stock offering on the New York Stock Exchange.  To call DIDI “the Chinese Uber” [UBER] would… Read More

Earnings season is underway, and market leadership has passed once again, for now, to the big-cap growth stalwarts.  We’ll be listening to earnings calls across many sectors and i… Read More

Productivity growth is one the critical economic variables for investors to watch.  For the economy as a whole, it is a key driver of GDP growth, and therefore of broad earnings growth… Read More

Although the market averages are not far from all-time highs, the market’s tone leaves something to be desired.  In part this is due to the narrowing of market performance to a ha… Read More

Last week, the European Central Bank joined the U.S. Federal Reserve in moving toward a policy regime that’s more tolerant of inflation.  Rather than a 2% ceiling, the ECB will no… Read More

Any time markets recover from panic lows and recession, there is a powerful upward movement that is eventually followed by a period of digestion.  It may come as a surprise to watchers… Read More

Unexpectedly poor job numbers for April caused a moment of consternation that the economic recovery was stalling.  May and June’s reports were also misses, coming in below analyst… Read More

Tightening By Any Other Name Two weeks ago, we observed that peak liquidity growth had already passed: “There is an important sense in which the taper already began in the first… Read More

The extraordinary pandemic support measures enacted last year by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury were a critical component of the U.S.’ so-far successful navigation of pandemic di… Read More

As many states have now ended the additional pandemic unemployment benefits provided by the Federal government, we are seeing in real time that those benefits were in fact serving to suppres… Read More

Electorates, Be Careful What You Wish For The chaotic wake of the pandemic and the ever-more-bitter partisan spirit that has taken hold in Washington has made the neutral examination of p… Read More

July 1 marks the start of the third quarter, which is traditionally the worst quarter for the U.S. and other global stock markets.  Of course we don’t know what this year will bri… Read More

Since the initial supernova of Federal Reserve and Treasury pandemic support for financial markets occurred last April, we have argued that this description-beggaring liquidity explosion was… Read More

With May data complete, the Guild Basic Needs Index (GBNI), our proprietary real-world inflation gauge measuring the price of a basket of four essential consumer goods, has backed slightly o… Read More

Without getting technical, let’s just say that because of its impact on markets and pricing, liquidity measures (whether from the Fed, China, or other central banks) must be monitored… Read More

About the Guild Basic Needs Index Guild Investment Management has long believed that the existing indices used to measure cost of living changes in the United States are inadequate and mi… Read More

Having a strategy for each outcome is the key to getting through the confusion.  In one environment, “Cash is king.”  Yet, in a different (and quite possible) environme… Read More

A big debate is raging about the type of inflationary cycle the world is experiencing.  How much higher?  For how long?  Have we peaked?  Is the Fed right?  Will the… Read More

Post Fed Meeting Unwind of Many Crowded Inflation/Commodity Trades Yesterday, the Federal Reserve meeting concluded with a message that they are monitoring many of the rising costs and th… Read More

Last week, we noted that the typical 60/40 stock/bond portfolio allocation that has become an investing commonplace in the past several decades has historically produced many “lost dec… Read More

The week saw interesting developments on the cryptography and cryptocurrency fronts.  A massive international sting operation was revealed in which U.S. and Australian law enforcement h… Read More

The current investment environment suggests one critical lesson to us: the future into which we are moving is going to be very different from the immediate past.  Therefore, investment… Read More

As we noted in our main piece this week, we believe it’s very important for investors to revisit their commodity allocation now, while rising inflation is still in early innings. … Read More

One lasting effect of the pandemic’s disruption of global supply chains has been a shortage of chips. This is not primarily a shortage of the advanced semiconductors which some industr… Read More

Various Fed officials, including Vice Chair Richard Clarida, have taken to the airwaves to talk down inflation concerns and show confidence in the Fed’s ability to engineer a “so… Read More

The correction we have been expecting for some time is now underway. Inflation Breakout: Demand Pull Moving To Cost Push Inflation has broken out and gold has broken out to a two- or t… Read More

April inflation data came in hot, as we’ve been predicting for months.  By bringing you our Guild Basic Needs Index, we have been preparing you for some of the eye-popping numbers… Read More