2021-10-14 18:35
Yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released monthly inflation data, showing the consumer price index (CPI) for all urban consumers rising at a 5.4% year-on-year pace. In the wor… Read More
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2021-10-14 18:30
As noted above, more durable inflation is becoming clearer on the horizon, driven by hard-to-resolve supply chain issues and rising labor costs in particular. Wages are rising, particu… Read More
2021-10-07 19:24
In recent weeks, a piece of news and a piece of commentary, which we show you below, crossed our desk — items which were interesting enough taken in isolation, but which became even mo… Read More
2021-10-07 19:18
The broad U.S. stock indices remain close to their all-time highs. However, those indices are constructed in a way that heavily over-emphasizes the largest listed companies. A di… Read More
2021-09-30 17:15
Whatever else they can’t agree on — and it’s a lot — the fans of fossil fuels and the promoters of green energy solutions can agree on one thing: they all think an oi… Read More
2021-09-30 17:12
Is there something strange in the water in Washington — or perhaps are we approaching the “haunted house” season where strange and scary things come out to spook us? … Read More
2021-09-23 17:38
The economic tale of the pandemic, as we’ve often written in the past year and half, has been one where the acceleration of pre-existing trends has been remarkable — especially w… Read More
2021-09-23 17:19
U.S. stock indexes came close to their first real correction in almost a year (however, many individual stocks have been correcting for weeks or months). Of the selection of possible c… Read More
2021-09-16 18:05
Water, and the state of U.S. drinking and wastewater systems, entered into the mind of U.S. investors during the Flint water crisis back in 2014. Since then, an acceleration has occurr… Read More
2021-09-16 18:02
Goldman Sachs summarized the recent official inflation print: “August core CPI rose by 0.10% month-over-month, and the year-on-year rate declined three tenths to 4.0%…&nbs&hell…Read More
2021-09-16 17:58
U.S. Stocks
September thus far has seen a modest decline in the S&P 500, which historically has been typical after a period of many months of positive returns. There are many po… Read More
2021-09-09 18:48
Since it peaked in February, the U.S. biotech industry has endured a slide that has taken it into bear market territory for the year. Retail investors typically approach this industry… Read More
2021-09-09 18:44
In many respects, a relative goldilocks period seems to be ending. Growth, revenue, and profit recoveries have lapped pandemic lows. Further direct consumer stimulus is not forth… Read More
2021-09-02 17:05
Last week, we discussed the “liquidity supernova” that has helped drive global stock market indices to new highs, even in the face of many potential challenges — new covid… Read More
2021-09-02 17:00
It was a great Q2 2021 earnings reporting season, as anticipated, with U.S. firms as a whole beating estimates by 19% (versus a 2% average beat over the period of 2000-2019). From this… Read More
2021-08-26 19:20
If you are a market participant who can’t shake the feeling that you have lost your touch for anticipating market behavior, you are not alone. We have taken to simply reminding i… Read More
2021-08-26 19:14
While listening to the recent round of quarterly conference calls, we noted that most managements were still discussing supply-chain issues — and saying that these were problems that h… Read More
2021-08-19 17:51
Does the collapse of the U.S.-backed Afghan government matter?
It certainly matters to many Afghani individuals who hitched themselves to the American star, and seem to have been unceremo… Read More
2021-08-19 17:43
The message from earnings season is clear: the negative earnings impact of the pandemic, index-wide, is over. The chart below shows annualized two-year EPS growth.
Source: Deu… Read More
2021-08-12 19:41
Last week, we commented on the likely persistence of the post-pandemic “new normal” in technology, mentioning specifically remote work and e-commerce. In both cases, covid… Read More
2021-08-12 19:30
Two weeks remain until the Federal Reserve’s annual policy meeting at Jackson Hole, from which we may well learn more about the Fed’s intentions on monetary policy.
In t… Read More
2021-08-05 19:17
Really, there is only one long-term question facing investors at this juncture. Will the “new normal” that has emerged from the pandemic be enduring? Or will it prove… Read More
2021-08-05 19:09
We believe that inflation will hover from 3–5% for the next several years, even as it falls from June’s CPI print: 5.4% over the previous 12 months, and 0.9% month-on-month.
F… Read More
2021-07-29 18:59
In early June, Chinese ride-hailing giant Didi Chuxing [DIDI] filed for a public stock offering on the New York Stock Exchange. To call DIDI “the Chinese Uber” [UBER] would… Read More
2021-07-29 18:55
Earnings season is underway, and market leadership has passed once again, for now, to the big-cap growth stalwarts. We’ll be listening to earnings calls across many sectors and i… Read More
2021-07-22 19:36
Productivity growth is one the critical economic variables for investors to watch. For the economy as a whole, it is a key driver of GDP growth, and therefore of broad earnings growth… Read More
2021-07-22 19:30
Although the market averages are not far from all-time highs, the market’s tone leaves something to be desired. In part this is due to the narrowing of market performance to a ha… Read More
2021-07-15 18:10
Last week, the European Central Bank joined the U.S. Federal Reserve in moving toward a policy regime that’s more tolerant of inflation. Rather than a 2% ceiling, the ECB will no… Read More
2021-07-15 18:05
Any time markets recover from panic lows and recession, there is a powerful upward movement that is eventually followed by a period of digestion. It may come as a surprise to watchers… Read More
2021-07-08 15:48
Unexpectedly poor job numbers for April caused a moment of consternation that the economic recovery was stalling. May and June’s reports were also misses, coming in below analyst… Read More
2021-07-08 15:39
Tightening By Any Other Name
Two weeks ago, we observed that peak liquidity growth had already passed:
“There is an important sense in which the taper already began in the first… Read More
2021-07-01 18:26
The extraordinary pandemic support measures enacted last year by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury were a critical component of the U.S.’ so-far successful navigation of pandemic di… Read More
2021-07-01 17:54
As many states have now ended the additional pandemic unemployment benefits provided by the Federal government, we are seeing in real time that those benefits were in fact serving to suppres… Read More
2021-07-01 17:46
Electorates, Be Careful What You Wish For
The chaotic wake of the pandemic and the ever-more-bitter partisan spirit that has taken hold in Washington has made the neutral examination of p… Read More
2021-07-01 17:38
July 1 marks the start of the third quarter, which is traditionally the worst quarter for the U.S. and other global stock markets. Of course we don’t know what this year will bri… Read More
2021-06-24 19:40
Since the initial supernova of Federal Reserve and Treasury pandemic support for financial markets occurred last April, we have argued that this description-beggaring liquidity explosion was… Read More
2021-06-24 19:28
With May data complete, the Guild Basic Needs Index (GBNI), our proprietary real-world inflation gauge measuring the price of a basket of four essential consumer goods, has backed slightly o… Read More
2021-06-24 19:12
Without getting technical, let’s just say that because of its impact on markets and pricing, liquidity measures (whether from the Fed, China, or other central banks) must be monitored… Read More
2021-06-17 21:49
About the Guild Basic Needs Index
Guild Investment Management has long believed that the existing indices used to measure cost of living changes in the United States are inadequate and mi… Read More
2021-06-17 21:47
Having a strategy for each outcome is the key to getting through the confusion. In one environment, “Cash is king.” Yet, in a different (and quite possible) environme… Read More
2021-06-17 21:44
A big debate is raging about the type of inflationary cycle the world is experiencing. How much higher? For how long? Have we peaked? Is the Fed right? Will the… Read More
2021-06-17 20:18
Post Fed Meeting Unwind of Many Crowded Inflation/Commodity Trades
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve meeting concluded with a message that they are monitoring many of the rising costs and th… Read More
2021-06-10 10:00
Last week, we noted that the typical 60/40 stock/bond portfolio allocation that has become an investing commonplace in the past several decades has historically produced many “lost dec… Read More
2021-06-10 10:00
The week saw interesting developments on the cryptography and cryptocurrency fronts. A massive international sting operation was revealed in which U.S. and Australian law enforcement h… Read More
2021-06-03 20:50
The current investment environment suggests one critical lesson to us: the future into which we are moving is going to be very different from the immediate past. Therefore, investment… Read More
2021-06-03 20:48
As we noted in our main piece this week, we believe it’s very important for investors to revisit their commodity allocation now, while rising inflation is still in early innings. … Read More
2021-05-27 17:52
One lasting effect of the pandemic’s disruption of global supply chains has been a shortage of chips. This is not primarily a shortage of the advanced semiconductors which some industr… Read More
2021-05-27 17:44
Various Fed officials, including Vice Chair Richard Clarida, have taken to the airwaves to talk down inflation concerns and show confidence in the Fed’s ability to engineer a “so… Read More
2021-05-20 18:51
At this point in the post-pandemic recovery, a lot depends on who is right in the very lively “transitory vs. persistent” inflation debate. For investors, the question is p… Read More
2021-05-20 18:45
The correction we have been expecting for some time is now underway.
Inflation Breakout: Demand Pull Moving To Cost Push
Inflation has broken out and gold has broken out to a two- or t… Read More
2021-05-13 19:02
April inflation data came in hot, as we’ve been predicting for months. By bringing you our Guild Basic Needs Index, we have been preparing you for some of the eye-popping numbers… Read More
2021-05-06 20:16
A month ago, as inflation talk claimed more investor attention, we revived our in-house inflation index — the Guild Basic Needs Index — which was designed as a simple and straigh… Read More
2021-05-06 20:08
Earnings season is a busy time at Guild, since our management style emphasizes the careful selection of individual stocks rather than broad indices. That means that we typically have t… Read More
2021-05-06 20:04
Rising inflation expectations may be even more important for investors than rising inflation. These expectations are forcing individual investors and money managers to include a new fa… Read More
2021-04-29 18:24
Many commodities have boomed, driven by a confluence of forces:
ongoing monetary and fiscal stimulus;accelerating post-pandemic global economic growth;long-term underinvestment in commodi… Read More
2021-04-29 18:19
As we continue to lap the initial stages of the pandemic, a lot of numbers are going to start showing year-over-year peaks: GDP, earnings growth, inflation. Looking forward, everything… Read More
2021-04-22 19:10
Last week we wrote about the advent of central bank digital currencies, outlining the motivations that governments and central banks have for upstaging the rise of decentralized crypto netwo… Read More
2021-04-22 19:07
The overall market indices in the U.S. have moved sideways, near all-time highs. Many former high-flyers have corrected, with formerly exuberant cryptos and SPACs registering volatilit… Read More
2021-04-15 17:23
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general have reclaimed the imagination of the investing public, especially as crypto has enjoyed another of its periodic spectacular runs since late last year… Read More
2021-04-15 17:10
While we remain bullish on the U.S. market longer-term, the market is obviously ready for a normal correction. This correction may only be a 5% pullback, or it may be slightly more. &n&hell…Read More
2021-04-08 18:51
As we noted last week, we believe that as 2021 progresses, we will have a drumbeat of increasing analyst expectations for GDP growth and economic activity. The past year’s pandem… Read More
2021-04-08 18:47
Countries We Like
We are bullish on the U.S., Japan, Korea, and India, and we favor the industries mentioned below.
We are optimistic on the remainder of 2021, and believe that GDP gro… Read More
2021-04-01 19:51
A trend has emerged: the research departments of the big brokerage houses are gradually increasing their estimates for U.S. GDP growth in 2021. Last week, Bank of America raised its fu… Read More
2021-04-01 19:42
The U.S. Market
The rotation continues, and for a few more months one industry after another may see a fall in stock prices while the broad indices move ahead very slowly or rotates sidew… Read More
2021-03-25 16:57
Reading time: 3 minutes
For many years, Guild has compiled and tracked a neutral inflation index which we call the Guild Basic Needs Index (GBNI). We designed it to be a simple anal… Read More
2021-03-25 16:52
Reading time: 3 minutes
Emerging markets, like the rest of global stock markets, have enjoyed a torrid rise since the pandemic bottom just over a year ago. That rise was reinvigorat… Read More
2021-03-25 16:47
Reading time: 4 minutes
The U.S. Market
The U.S. is undergoing a rolling correction as industry after industry corrects and then stabilizes. Higher interest rates will benefit so… Read More
2021-03-18 18:14
The Fed’s press conferences in the era of “money printer go brrrrrr” are often derided as “nothingburgers,” but of course they are still required listening and… Read More
2021-03-18 18:11
We note that interest rates are now above where they were when the pandemic began; the economy is sitting on many trillions of newly-created dollars; and analysts are vying for more aggressi… Read More
2021-03-11 20:46
In the blink of an eye last spring, half the American workforce found themselves doing their jobs remotely. In spite of the rollout of vaccines and the rollback of pandemic behavioral… Read More
2021-03-11 20:42
We believe that 10-year rates will rise above 2% over the course of 2021; U.S. core inflation will move towards 3%, and total inflation (including the more volatile food and energy) towards… Read More
2021-03-04 20:02
The year since the advent of the covid pandemic has been unprecedented — to such an extent that the word “unprecedented” has become a cliché. Some readers may… Read More
2021-03-04 19:51
A lot of “bubble talk” is making the rounds. We concur with the recently published opinion of Ray Dalio, who sees bubbles in certain areas of emerging technology stocks, bu… Read More
2021-02-18 19:41
In the judgment of history, the most significant shift inaugurated by the Trump administration may prove to be a shift in the relationship between the United States and China — a shift… Read More
2021-02-18 19:36
One slightly bright spot in Europe has been the use made of the pandemic crisis by some European banks. European banks are still laden with bad debts from the bloc’s sovereign de… Read More
2021-02-18 19:30
Fourth-quarter earnings continue to come in very strong. As of now, the fourth quarter of 2020 is coming in positive — 2% up from the final quarter of 2019, when analysts had exp… Read More
2021-02-11 18:36
Until the pandemic broke last spring, all eyes were on the yield curve — the spread between short and long-term interest rates. The inversion of that curve is thought to augur th… Read More
2021-02-11 18:24
In our view the appropriate strategy is to be optimistic, be invested, but be careful as you build your buy list. As we said two weeks ago, there are ways to approach an elevated marke… Read More
2021-02-05 15:54
Our first note of 2021 made the case that the events of 2020 heralded the return of inflation. We made two main observations. First, the Fed’s adoption of average inflation… Read More
2021-02-05 15:51
Earnings season is underway. Earnings growth has turned positive for the first time since the last quarter of 2019, before the pandemic:
Source: Deutsche Bank ResearchBarring unfore… Read More
2021-01-28 19:39
To many experienced investors, the U.S. stock market appears dangerously high. While investor and trader enthusiasm is taking the major stock averages higher, there is also an uncomfor… Read More
2021-01-21 20:05
The remarkable market rally since last year’s pandemic lows can be attributed in large part to the very large and rapid increase in real liquidity in the financial system — that… Read More
2021-01-21 20:00
We mentioned above the robotics companies could be key beneficiaries of accelerated capex spending made by U.S. corporates flush with cash from bond and equity raises last year.
A B… Read More
2021-01-21 19:49
Yesterday passed and saw the arrival of another new U.S. presidential administration and a new Congressional majority.
Our attention remains focused on the two trends mentioned above: the… Read More
2021-01-14 18:01
Of the critical macro variables for investors to watch, inflation is one of the most important. Current inflation, as well as prospective changes in inflation levels and direction can… Read More
2021-01-14 17:57
If inflation is coming, as we described above, those investors who remember the inflation of the 1970s should know that it will not necessarily look like it did back then. The economy… Read More
2021-01-07 22:29
Back in late August, the Federal Reserve announced a new policy framework. It pledged to target an average inflation rate of 2%, letting it run above 2% for potentially prolonged perio… Read More
2021-01-07 22:24
Hong Kong had a rough 2020, hit by the pandemic, by escalating tensions between the U.S. and the People’s Republic of China, and by ongoing resistance in Hong Kong to the effective ear… Read More
2021-01-07 22:22
As we write, the results of Georgia’s elections are down to the wire, but it looks likely that the Democratic Party will capture both of the state’s U.S. Senate seats. That… Read More
2020-12-31 16:36
Back in 2017, we wrote about the incredibly rapid pace of growth in Chinese e-commerce and financial technology. To say the least, there’s been some water under the bridge since… Read More
2020-12-31 16:32
We wish all our readers a happy New Year. In our view, those who reckon 2020 as “the worst year ever” (such as Time magazine) need some education about the world’s da… Read More
2020-12-29 15:14
The trajectory of markets in 2020 has been extraordinary and unexpected. Looking back, both the depth of the pandemic crash and the strength of the rally that has followed it make sens… Read More
2020-12-29 15:04
As we noted above, on a tactical basis, we believe a correction or consolidation is becoming visible on the horizon. The market’s rise into year-end has been strong, and as good… Read More
2020-12-21 19:08
The bullish consensus for 2021 has reached near unanimity, which is an invitation to anyone with a contrarian itch to scratch it. We agree with much of the bullish thesis. Histor… Read More
2020-12-21 18:55
Trump’s Legacy
It could charitably be said that the outgoing U.S. administration was characterized by non traditional trade strategies. But we can say that in spite of the pol… Read More
2020-12-14 16:56
In recent letters, we’ve written about the investment opportunities we see emerging outside the United States. This week, we’ll describe two: Japan and South Korea. (… Read More
2020-12-08 17:15
As we write, major U.S. indices are just off recent all-time highs; for some, such as the Russell 2000 index of small-capitalization companies, November was the best month in history. … Read More
2020-11-24 16:17
With further analysis of trial data, Pfizer [NYSE: PFE] has joined Moderna [NASDAQ: MRNA] in the 95% stratosphere of first-blush Covid vaccine efficacy. MRNA’s prospective vaccin… Read More
2020-11-18 19:33
Recently we sent out a special note to readers on the topic of Fed Chair Powell’s remarks last Thursday. We wrote:
“For many, Fed Chair Powell’s remarks yesterday… Read More
2020-11-18 19:29
The stock market rally returned over the weekend as election results suggested the likelihood of a win for Presidential hopeful Joe Biden, the onset of a divided government, and the avoidanc… Read More
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