2020-01-06 16:22
Something very interesting has happened recently. Gold has been going up while the amount of outstanding negative yielding bonds is actually decreasing.This tells me that inflation is roarin… Read More
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2020-01-04 15:54
A major escalation happened in Iran and oil will be going higher. Russia will probably profit the most from this Read More
2020-01-02 16:23
Commercial paper rates are correlated with the amount of repurchase agreements bought by the Fed.Whenever we see a rise in the {Commercial paper rate minus Fed funds rate}, the repurchases g… Read More
2019-12-29 13:27
Marc Faber says Hong Kong is a city without anything at all, they import everything: water, oil, food, whisky, appliances. They get their money by trading Read More
2019-12-27 11:52
As predicted, silver went up and it has still room to go higher. (BTW, this is a record high in silver warehouse stock) Read More
2019-12-25 14:40
John Taylor, a Stanford University economist once considered to lead the Federal Reserve, developed a formula to calculate where the Fed funds rate should hypothetically be according to in… Read More
2019-12-24 09:00
Gold has started to move up against the SDR basket of currencies. This is the perfect evidence of a global monetary reset. As the whole world prints money, gold will go up against all fiat c… Read More
2019-12-23 09:05
The delinquencies are a leading indicator for the growth in the unemployment rate. As more and more people default on loans, these losses will be taken by the companies holding those loans (… Read More
2019-12-21 18:52
Volcker 2.0 will be implemented in Jan 2020 and will reduce compliance costs for smaller banks. It will also allow certain smaller banks to use in-house money and your depositor money to eng… Read More
2019-12-21 15:46
The U.S. dollar is overdue for a correction to the downside as budget and current account deficits balloon. To bet on this, you should of course buy precious metals Read More
2019-12-20 16:59
Jesus in Matt. 22:19 asked them to show whose likeness and inscription was on the coin. When they said Caesar's, he responded, "Render therefore to Caesar the things that are Caesar's, and t… Read More
2019-12-18 16:40
Marc Faber said if he would buy one thing, it would be platinum Read More
2019-12-18 13:04
For our next stock pick we will go with Bank of China.China modest GDP growth at 2% China has 5 times the population of U.S. with huge upside Trade deal could boost Chinese marketHong K… Read More
2019-12-17 17:56
Singapore's GDP is going to be flat at 0.5% amid trade tensions between the U.S. and China. When GDP rebounds, we will also see rents increase in the real estate space.Moreover, the real est… Read More
2019-12-13 12:57
Data shows silver will break out Read More
2019-12-12 20:54
Some interesting charts on supply and demand projections in the commodity space. Read More
2019-12-12 20:26
The permanent portfolio: gold, cash, stocks, bonds.You should hold some of each asset class based on inflation/deflation, growth/stagnation.PS: today we are in inflationary growth Read More
2019-12-12 15:28
Trump cancels December tariffs and lowers existing tariffs by 50%. This will be a setback for precious metal mining stocks.10 year bond yields shoot higher:Gold plunges: Read More
2019-12-11 20:25
The Fed dot plot shows rates are revised lower. This will put pressure on the USD and boost precious metals and stocks.Especially after Powell said: "We want to see persistent inflation befo… Read More
2019-12-11 16:45
U.S. bonds look normal:German bonds look normal: Japanese bonds don't look normal: I expect more Japanese intervention shortly Read More
2019-12-11 16:25
2019-12-10 21:03
The difference between platinum and palladium is just obscene. Now this is unsustainable. At some point producers will switch back from palladium to platinum and platinum will go higher Read More
2019-12-09 10:40
If the amount of Repo Purchases keeps rising, the problems are getting worse. Keep monitoring! Read More
2019-12-06 16:22
2019-12-06 09:43
The spread is getting wider and wider. The Chinese are buying Read More
2019-12-04 14:06
The latest ADP employment numbers are out and it doesn't look rosy.In particular, jobs from productive segments all went down (construction, manufacturing and mining), while jobs from non-pr… Read More
2019-12-02 08:07
The price of new homes is a leading indicator for rent CPI Read More
2019-11-29 13:52
This interview with Lynette Zang is so good I have to post it: Read More
2019-11-29 10:50
Just 3 words: OMG Read More
2019-11-29 09:48
What's a bit concerning to me is that the misery index (unemployment + inflation) has been going down, while gold has been going up. This is not normal.Either misery is going to increase or… Read More
2019-11-26 19:12
And now suddenly J.P. Morgan's warehouse has a pledged gold category.25-nov-2019 Read More
2019-11-25 10:13
I found that the gold price is pretty correlated to China GDP. As China's economy does well, the Chinese will buy more gold.There is however one peculiar outlier, the gold price surged in 20… Read More
2019-11-25 09:58
China's power consumption grew 5% yoy in October 2019, indicating that the Chinese economy is stabilizing Read More
2019-11-22 08:38
Can I be more clear that silver is going to break out? Read More
2019-11-21 22:57
Registered silver at COMEX still going down, bullish for silver. It started going down in September 2019. J.P. Morgan registered silver at COMEX went down begin September 2019. Thi… Read More
2019-11-21 19:47
The following chart shows the U.S. Monetary Base Vs. U.S. gold reserves. These two should match with each other. Either the price of gold goes up, or the U.S. gold reserves should go up. Thi… Read More
2019-11-21 09:06
I haven't been following the registered silver of JP Morgan at COMEX, but it strikes me that it is rapidly declining.For multiple years, it stood at 5122062 and has now declined to 4709861… Read More
2019-11-20 17:45
Everyone is touting that China will crash and is in huge trouble.I'm sorry to say this, but China will grow to be much larger than the U.S.China GDP at purchasing power parity will be double… Read More
2019-11-20 07:46
Pledged gold has been rising. Bullionstar notes:So we will need to watch this: Read More
2019-11-19 19:05
Hong Kong isn't doing well. It has gone into recession and capital is flowing out of the country. That money is flowing into Singapore and Shenzhen as Jim Rogers suggests in this video. If y… Read More
2019-11-17 20:34
CLO's are derivatives backed by corporate credit in the form of leveraged loans. The U.S. CLO market has hit $600 billion at this time, big enough to be systemically important. The… Read More
2019-11-15 15:43
Houston we have a problem.The inflation rate is expected to ease somewhat. The unemployment rate is expected to rise Read More
2019-11-15 15:19
I've always been told that the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, but when I look at this chart of the unemployment rate Vs. inflation rate, the unemployment rate is actually a leadin… Read More
2019-11-15 15:17
The Phillips curve suggests there is an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment.In fact, I even believe that the unemployment rate is a leading indicator for inflation. (alth… Read More
2019-11-13 16:50
This should be positive for silver Read More
2019-11-13 12:28
Marko Kolanovich of JPM has a nice chart where he shows that QE is a leading indicator for PMI with a 6 month lead. So if you know that the Fed, the ECB, BOJ, PBOC are going to print money i… Read More
2019-11-13 11:30
A new category has been added to COMEX stock. Pledged gold, which is an upgrade on the registered category: registered metal for which the warrant that has been issued is on deposit with CME… Read More
2019-11-11 21:46
One of my favourite indicators is the COMEX registered silver inventory. Whenever that falls, silver rises. And the blue line is starting to fall Read More
2019-11-10 15:33
Would you invest in Russia? I certainly would. I would advise to buy Sberbank.Current account: Stable in positive area.Balance of trade: Dropping, but in positive area.10 year bond yield: Hi… Read More
2019-11-10 13:37
Just an update on central bank gold buying.Russia and China have continued to add gold, but Turkey has made a huge investment of 65 tonnes of gold Read More
2019-11-09 14:45
Productivity is negatively correlated to inflation. Whenever productivity slows down, efficiency drops and goods become more expensive to make, resulting in higher inflation Read More
2019-11-09 00:54
Gold production is set to decline if the gold price doesn't move up. The chart also show that most miners now have free cash flow at these gold prices Read More
2019-11-09 00:42
Whenever we see a surge in open interest in gold, then gold is set to move higher. The banking cartel tries to stop gold from moving higher, which can be seen in the rise in open interest Read More
2019-11-06 13:49
This chart shows the Yardeni Fundamental Stock Market Indicator Vs. S&P.https://www.yardeni.com/pub/fsmi.pdf Read More
2019-11-06 13:16
A lot of Indians are buying gold in Singapore Read More
2019-11-01 23:31
And it's only November Read More
2019-10-30 00:40
As predicted a few months ago, the yield curve would uninvert due to QE. Normally a recession would occur, but this is not guaranteed. What is guaranteed is higher inflation and higher stock… Read More
2019-10-28 04:08
We are entering positive gold seasonality Read More
2019-10-28 00:57
A very interesting chart. Normally bond yields and gold price should move together, because inflation would push both higher. But in today's world gold goes up and bond yields go down. This… Read More
2019-10-26 00:13
This is how the ECB will print money starting in November. This is what the Fed will do: Read More
2019-10-23 08:26
As expected, with the end of the CBGA, Western central banks would start buying gold.Central bank gold demand was the highest growing segment in gold demand in 2019 Read More
2019-10-18 09:26
Does this look contained to you? Read More
2019-10-16 10:20
The NVT/RVT of bitcoin are like the P/E ratio of stocks. You buy bitcoin when the NVT/RVT is low.You can check this ratio here.Marc De Mesel talks about NVT/RVT: Read More
2019-10-16 09:13
Inflation alert! Read More
2019-10-16 07:27
To keep track of China capital outflows, we need to look at China’s "errors and omissions" line in its balance of payments. This number represents the residual of the main BOP accounts… Read More
2019-10-15 20:53
Lynette answers my question:In 2008, we saw a similar uncontrolled spike in the fed funds rate as we see today in September 2019. Only in 2019 it is a much bigger spike with much more debt… Read More
2019-10-15 06:17
The U.S. dollar has lost some reserve currency status and is allocated at 61.6%, which is a new low in a decade. The euro has jumped up a bit to 20.3% Read More
2019-10-14 21:12
Umich Household Durables - Good Time to Purchase are correlated to the unemployment rate.US consumers spend less on critical household purchases when their economic situation deteriorates;… Read More
2019-10-14 13:45
Today the CME Group launches Shanghai gold futures contracts linked to the Chinese physical gold market.The spread between China and the West will probably narrow and be more constant as tra… Read More
2019-10-13 19:16
The silver price has been rising from $15/ounce to $17/ounce in 2019 while the gold price has risen from $1300/ounce to $1500/ounce. This turnaround should be reflected in the financials of… Read More
2019-10-11 15:46
Assuming that the repos get repaid, the balance sheet of the Fed will go right back to where it started QT by end next year, which means QT failed miserably Read More
2019-10-11 12:23
I have been talking extensively about the LCR which is now at 100%, which puts a burden on banks because they cannot use these high quality liquid assets due to the regulation.The Fed now an… Read More
2019-10-09 08:43
I wonder why corporate taxes have come down, while the total tax is at an all time high? This is because the Trump tax cuts benefitted mostly corporations Read More
2019-10-07 08:24
If you want to follow up on the Repo Madness. This FRED link will give you the amount of Repo's they buy.Repurchase agreements reflect some of the Federal Reserve's temporary open market op… Read More
2019-10-07 08:02
The best way to check who is winning the U.S.-China trade war is to just look at the balance of trade between U.S. and China. Since the start of the trade war in 2018, the balance of trade i… Read More
2019-10-06 10:24
The U.S. Mint is a proxy for the demand for precious metals in the U.S.And this U.S. demand is abysmal. It all crashed in 2016. A very interesting trend though is that the ratio betwee… Read More
2019-10-04 14:59
2019-10-02 19:42
Zerohedge reports that JP Morgan caused the repo liquidity shortage.I wrote about LCR being the culprit of this liquidity shortage.When we look at JP Morgan's LCR it was 115% last year.So pr… Read More
2019-10-02 15:55
Haven't updated this, but something tells me silver should be higher Read More
2019-10-02 09:23
2019-10-02 09:09
The ISM U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 47.8% in September, the lowest since June 2009. So tariffs were supposed to bring back manufacturing jobs huh? Als… Read More
2019-09-30 15:41
We need a reminder on this each year Read More
2019-09-26 20:32
Lynette answers my question: "Why aren't banks using excess reserves to supply the liquidity?" Read More
2019-09-25 08:48
Bitcoin started to crash and it will crash more as the cost per transaction has not found bottom yet. Read More
2019-09-25 08:21
The Ifo Business Climate Index is a closely followed leading indicator for economic activity in Germany prepared by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research in Munich, Germany Read More
2019-09-25 07:41
The gold price is now almost making an all time high, while the GLD ETF holdings are not nearly at their all time highs. So I expect higher gold prices to come, as there are a lot of investo… Read More
2019-09-24 21:36
Retail sales have been moving up surprisingly, so I expect inflation to start picking up. Capacity utilization rate is also bottoming out Read More
2019-09-24 16:14
So this is a visualization of the Fed balance sheet.Currency in circulation is always going up and stands at $1.8 trillion. So the Fed has been decreasing its assets on the balance sheet and… Read More
2019-09-23 10:42
Germany September PMI at 49.1, contractionary Read More
2019-09-22 16:06
Nonfinancial corporate debt to GDP is making an all time high. That means delinquencies will be starting to appear. And delinquencies will lead to a credit crisis. Read More
2019-09-21 10:51
Business inventories reached a new high in September.Usually a bad sign for GDP when inventories go up and sales go down Read More
2019-09-20 11:32
No improvement whatsoever, more weakness in silver to come Read More
2019-09-20 07:12
The suicide rate is correlated with the unemployment rate. The more people don't have a job, the more people will commit suicide.The U.S. case: The Hong Kong case:Unemployment rate was high… Read More
2019-09-19 12:00
QE leads to a steepening of the yield curve, while QT leads to flattening of the yield curve.It is anticipated that the Fed will restart QE end 2019. This will steepen the yield curve (highe… Read More
2019-09-18 18:18
Fed cuts rates to 1.75%, more to come later this year. Dot plot is also lowered. Read More
2019-09-18 14:40
Problems ahead... The Fed lost control of the Fed funds rate Read More
2019-09-18 13:49
SOFR is supposed to replace LIBOR Read More
2019-09-17 21:36
Lynette answers my question: Why are rising repo rates bad? Repossession rate is the rate at which the central bank of a country lends money to commercial banks in the event of any shor… Read More
2019-09-16 19:59
There is a correlation between oil and the stock market. Generally both are correlated positively with each other, until the price of oil goes too high. Then it becomes a burden to the consu… Read More
2019-09-14 16:55
Oil could hit $100 a barrel after a drone strike on Saudi Arabia. Let’s wait and see.https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/100-Oil-Drone-Strikes-Halt-Half-Of-Saudi-Crude-Produ… Read More
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