2019-03-25 16:53
Hog prices are soaring as the effects of African Swine Fever (ASF) are finally starting to hit home in pork-loving China. We wrote about ASF in a September blog post and recommended a six-mo… Read More
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Our Big Move Trades blog posts are specifically designed to identify trading opportunities by using our unique “pennies-on-the-dollar,†long-term, “set it and forget it†option strategies.
2019-03-08 15:23
The 200-day moving average has a history of being a key signal for the S&P 500 and stocks. Bull markets tend to trade well above it; bear markets below it. Time spent trading around the… Read More
2019-02-27 15:17
Poor platinum. It is one of the rarest of metals, hidden deep within the earth, making it far harder to mine than gold or silver. Platinum also boasts superior industrial properties, such as… Read More
2019-02-19 15:27
We’ve written at length about the importance of the 200-day moving average in the S&P 500, starting with our first blog post of the New Year. Buoyed by a Fed that swung from hawkis… Read More
2019-02-05 15:56
Platinum used to be the king of metals. Once considered the “rich man’s gold,” platinum had more cachet. “Platinum” record albums sell more than gold ones. &ldq&hell…Read More
2019-02-04 17:35
Gold continued its surge higher last week, hitting our first near-term target of $1,325 per ounce on Thursday before backing off a bit on Friday. January and February are typically very good… Read More
2019-01-28 14:37
Big rallies in gold and silver on Friday added excitement to the bullishness that has defined price action in the precious metals for the past two months. Because they are priced in dollars… Read More
2019-01-23 16:07
Commodities have a well-deserved reputation of being far more volatile than the stock market. We are mainly commodity traders which means we are accustomed to volatility. However, the Trump… Read More
2019-01-08 20:04
In our first blog post of the New Year we identified the current condition in stocks as a bear market and explained some of the differences between bear markets and bull markets. The way to… Read More
2019-01-03 16:32
The New Year brings hope that those unmet goals will, with the right amount of effort and planning, become reality. The New Year also brings a flood of prognosticators who have dusted off th… Read More
2018-12-18 16:03
Like people, markets have personalities. Take silver. Silver is rude. Silver is cantankerous. Silver can be fickle. But folks LOVE silver anyway. The “poor man’s gold” has… Read More
2018-12-04 16:50
RMB Group has been trying to make sense of the volatility that has defined stocks and other key asset classes since the S&P 500 topped out in unspectacular fashion in late September. Is… Read More
2018-10-30 17:13
Interest rates measure the price of money. That makes them the world’s ultimate commodity. Like most commodities, the price of money has been falling for a long time. The yield on T-ye… Read More
2018-10-24 14:16
In Part 1 of our blog post we examined potential bottoms forming in sugar and coffee. Now let’s take a look at corn and soybeans – two of America’s most critical crops. Soy… Read More
2018-10-18 19:32
The winds are shifting. Critical commodities like corn, soybeans, sugar, hogs and coffee appear to be taking a cue from the energy sector and forming what we believe could be multi-year bott… Read More
2018-09-26 20:46
In 2009, a Norwegian student named Kristoffer Koch bought 5,000 bitcoins for roughly $27 as part of his thesis on encryption technology. He put them in his digital wallet and promptly forgot… Read More
2018-09-24 16:26
A deadly and extremely contagious virus is threatening China’s hog producers. African swine fever (ASF) has been found in pigs transported from Northern to Southern China. ASF has the… Read More
2018-09-18 15:32
There is probably no more frustrating market to trade than silver. The poor man’s gold has a nasty habit of breaking all the rules. It refuses to rally when all indicators seem to poin… Read More
2018-08-09 18:29
It has been a brutal weather year in the Northern Hemisphere: 119 people died from a heatwave in Japan; 29 succumbed to heat in South Korea; 91 people perished in wildfires in Greece and at… Read More
2018-07-10 17:09
It’s on! The multi-front trade war that neither exporters nor importers wanted is heating up. While the U.S. stock market has shrugged it off so far, agricultural commodities affected… Read More
2018-07-03 17:23
The productivity miracle of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries was fueled by crude oil and its derivatives. Diesel made from crude oil powered tractors and combines. Farmers, aid… Read More
2018-05-24 16:33
Option traders know that volatility is perhaps one of the most important factors determining options prices. Extremely volatile markets tend to have expensive options. Extremely quiet market… Read More
2018-05-01 20:26
We think so. High crude oil prices incentivize the use of ethanol as a gasoline additive in the US and as a substitute for gasoline in Brazil. The US uses its huge corn crop to... Read More… Read More
2018-04-23 18:10
It was bound to happen. Volatility in the commodity sector is starting to ramp up. And while the increase isn’t exactly across the board, volatility in most of the markets we’ve… Read More
2018-04-20 17:54
Silver bulls finally have something to cheer about. After months of lagging its richer cousin, silver is making a move on gold. This is good news for both metals should it continue. Silver n… Read More
2018-03-27 15:56
Welcome to Crypto World! Crypto World is a universe defined and dominated by the Internet, the cloud and millions of computer algorithms. Find your place in a cyber space where pieces of cod… Read More
2018-03-08 20:15
The key to finding “alpha” (performance above and beyond major averages) is to find an asset class that is undervalued, get long that asset class and wait. That can be a problem… Read More
2018-02-08 15:29
Humans are hard-wired to make predictions about the future. It is one of the mechanisms that help us learn. These predictions are often based on events in the past. For example, a child that… Read More
2018-01-31 16:22
(Click to read or re-read “Part 1” and/or “Part 2.”) Bitcoin Futures Solve Certain Issues The incredible growth in Bitcoin’s market capitalization, combined wit… Read More
2018-01-23 20:23
(Click here to read or re-read “Part 1”) “Mining” Bitcoin There are three ways to obtain bitcoins: 1) accept them as payment for goods and services, 2) buy them on an… Read More
2018-01-16 19:31
In 2009, a Norwegian student named Kristoffer Koch bought 5,000 bitcoins for roughly $27 as part of his thesis on encryption technology. He put them in his digital wallet and promptly forgot… Read More
2017-12-29 15:37
We didn’t release many “Big Move Trade Alerts” in 2017 because there weren’t many “Big Move” opportunities available in 2017 – at least not in the c… Read More
2017-07-17 14:59
We write this on Bastille Day, which commemorates the storming and seizing of the infamous French fortress by revolutionaries. They were determined to make the 1 percent pay for the injustic… Read More
2017-06-19 15:50
In Part A of our “Managed Futures 101” blog post we tried to shed light on this little-known asset class by comparing it to more well-known investments like mutual funds and ETFs… Read More
2017-06-06 14:19
Last Friday’s close in the US Dollar Index was the third consecutive weekly close below its 3-year old uptrend line. This puts a continued dollar rally in doubt. What fascinates us mos… Read More
2017-05-02 19:24
Silver has a dual personality. Like gold, it is a precious metal and, because it is cheaper than gold and accessible to many more investors, nearly always outperforms its richer cousin in go… Read More
2017-04-21 14:35
The stimulating power of coffee has made it the 2nd most traded commodity on the planet after crude oil. The allure of a tasty pick-me-up is universal. Europe is the biggest consumer, accoun… Read More
2017-03-24 14:53
Spring has barely sprung and March is living up to its reputation by going “out like a lamb” – at least where commodities are concerned. Nearly the entire sector – in… Read More
2017-03-06 18:17
Managed futures are one of the fastest-growing asset classes. Money under management by the Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) who direct the trading for this asset class has increased nearly… Read More
2017-02-21 18:57
Who doesn’t like chocolate? While some may not be susceptible to its seductive charms, global demand for chocolate and its raw material, cocoa, has exploded. Western consumers eat 286… Read More
2017-02-02 08:00
It’s been a long wait. RMB BMTA Alerts originally suggested buying March 2017 75-cent cotton calls back in July of 2015 as part of a multi-strategy play on the then-developing El Ni&nt&hell…Read More
2017-01-30 19:19
The market is telling us it may be. A close below 2287 in the E-Mini S&P 500 futures today would be the second consecutive close beneath a previous day’s low, generating a sell sig… Read More
2017-01-17 17:13
2016 was a year of transition. The election of Donald Trump and the success of the Brexit movement in the UK were just the most visible manifestations of a backlash against globalization and… Read More
2017-01-11 15:24
The traditional Chinese curse “May you live in interesting times” pretty much sums up what we expect for the next 12 months. The US stock market already built in the “best… Read More
2016-11-21 18:00
The financial media is full of prognostications about what the Trump presidency will mean for markets. Bonds swooned and stocks soared after the election with both markets pricing in the nea… Read More
2016-11-14 16:20
“You can observe a lot by just watching.” This famous Yogi Berra quote sums up our take on the Trump surprise. We always believed Trump could win (check out some of our old Blog… Read More
2016-11-09 18:42
Last night’s surprise victory by Donald Trump has sent T-bonds and T-notes into a tailspin. Let’s use this decline as an opportunity to exit the December 129 / 125 bear put sprea… Read More
2016-10-11 16:08
The weather may be cooling down, but things are definitely heating up in the crude oil market. Yesterday’s announcement that Vladimir Putin would support OPEC in “balancing the o… Read More
2016-09-30 14:15
Savers looking to keep their money secure in an FDIC-insured US bank may soon have to pay for the privilege. Nearly a decade of making no return on savings could get even worse. Negative int… Read More
2016-09-22 14:47
Managed futures can be confusing to individual investors. Technical jargon and a lack of familiarity with futures and options leave many investors befuddled and wary. But managed futures are… Read More
2016-08-22 18:52
“The best cure for low prices is low prices.” This phrase, made popular in the trading pits at the Chicago Board of Trade, sums up our take on two markets we believe to be among… Read More
2016-07-18 14:37
“Hit ‘em where they ain’t.” This quote from old-time batting champ and Hall-of-Famer Willie Keeler was the inspiration for our Big Move Trade Alert, “Silver Cou… Read More
2016-07-06 14:34
Brexit has come and gone. After plunging precariously on the news, global stock markets quickly recovered all they lost following the announcement that the United Kingdom had voted to leave… Read More
2016-06-16 17:49
It finally happened… Germany joined Japan and Switzerland in the negative interest rate club. It will now cost you to lend money to the governments of these three advanced, industrial… Read More
2016-06-08 13:19
Commodities are just starting to get noticed by the financial press, but a stealth bull market has been raging in this sector for quite some time. Many key markets are up substantially from… Read More
2016-05-31 14:57
Made popular by his book “The Black Swan: The Impact Of The Highly Improbable” (Penguin, 2008), Nassim Nicholas Taleb, investor and Professor of Risk Engineering at New York Univ… Read More
2016-05-18 18:19
In our latest blog series “Investing in the Age of Trump”: Parts One, Two and Three, we examined the Trump phenomenon, assessed his odds of winning and determined that he would b… Read More
2016-05-03 14:18
April showers bring May flowers, but will a budding bull market in commodities bloom this May? Emerging green shoots in gold, silver and crude oil could be early signs that the deep freeze g… Read More
2016-04-18 09:30
Stock market investors should get ready for a wild ride in the next few months – especially if Donald J. Trump wins it all in November. The last two major stock market crashes occurred… Read More
2016-04-18 09:30
2016-04-05 15:07
With tax day right around the corner, we want to remind investors that tax treatment of most Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — regulated products is different from that of… Read More
2016-03-24 16:04
In Part 1 of “Investing in the Age of Trump”, we examined the key causes of his unexpected primary performance and potential Republican nomination. While there are no sure bets i… Read More
2016-03-16 20:41
A “black swan” is a metaphor created by essayist and statistician Nassim Taleb. Black swans describe unanticipated events that tend to have dramatic and unpredictable effects. Th… Read More
2016-03-10 18:31
The massive El Niño we wrote about in our Big Move Trade Alert last July may be fading but its effects will continue to be felt for months. El Niño is a tropical phenomenon, so… Read More
2016-03-07 19:06
A little over a month ago RMB Big Move Trade Alerts recommended a two-step option strategy to take advantage of a possible bottom in silver – a market we felt wasn’t getting much… Read More
2016-02-24 14:55
Unique to futures, notional funding is an investor’s ability to use hypothetical money in order to fund an account within a managed futures or CTA program. Notional accounts can only b… Read More
2016-01-29 18:48
“Hit em’ where they ain’t.” This phrase was made famous by baseball Hall of Famer and batting champ Willie Keeler who was known to surprise opponents by doing the une… Read More
2016-01-08 17:22
Last year will go down as one of the worst for commodities. The slowdown in China and the strong US dollar were a brutal tag-team, decimating most commodity markets. Crude may have gotten al… Read More
2016-01-04 21:19
Individually managed futures continue to be one of the few asset classes where performance does not depend on a bull market in stocks or bonds. Futures traders can go short in any given mark… Read More
2015-12-15 17:40
The next few days could provide an answer. They say bull markets climb a “wall of worry” and bear markets decline on a “slope of hope.” If you believe in these old ma… Read More
2015-11-24 22:45
The seemingly endless speculation about whether the Fed will raise interest rates is getting old. The Federal Reserve has telegraphed a long-awaited move off “zero” for months no… Read More
2015-10-29 21:30
Sketchy weather in some of the major wheat-growing regions of the world appears to be putting a floor under wheat prices. Dry soil conditions that hampered the planting of winter wheat in Uk… Read More
2015-10-27 15:08
It is shaping up to be the biggest in recorded history. But even if the El Niño currently heating up the waters off the coasts of Central and South America fails to make the record… Read More
2015-10-21 20:18
Markets change personality depending on the underlying emotions guiding them. At any given time, every single market is doing one of three things: going up in response to greed, going down d… Read More
2015-10-01 15:58
Certain relationships in commodities demand attention – especially when they are out of whack. One of these is the price differential between gold and platinum. Both are “preciou… Read More
2015-09-14 21:26
The need for food is unrelenting and universal. It has been the force behind mass migrations and wars. English cleric and scholar Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) was fascinated by the relationshi… Read More
2015-08-21 16:14
The El Niño weather event BMTA examined in our last Alert (click here to re-read) is getting even stronger. Some scientists have increased the probability of a strong El Niño t… Read More
2006-06-07 11:16
Huge deficits, deflation and dangerous demographics have defined Japan for the past two decades. Japan’s shrinking population and growing number of retirees continue to threaten the so… Read More
2006-06-07 11:16
Corn’s impressive rally on yesterday’s news that farmers will plant 4% less than last year (91.7 million acres) propelled prices to within 15 cents of our first upside objective… Read More
2006-06-07 11:16
It seems like everything we read nowadays has something to do with the coming crash in China. The bears make a pretty good case; a big bubble in real estate, loads of excess manufacturing ca… Read More
2006-06-07 11:16
Ukraine, Schmukraine… Markets are ignoring the biggest and potentially most disruptive geopolitical crisis the world has seen in a while and focusing instead on the vague testimony of… Read More
