2024-01-12 00:42
Every year since the launch of our website, we have posted a piece reviewing KCR’s work from the prior year. Today’s post continues that tradition. We would like to thank our r… Read More
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Kailash Concepts empowers investors with independent, honest, data-driven and historically informed analysis to provide valuable insight into their investment process.
We use historical data to drive our empirical research.
Our goal is to identify stocks that we believe offer better returns and lower risk over the long run.
We are not speculators.
You won’t find us claiming that we can tell you what the “next Amazon†is going to be.
We stick to the facts, use data and history to inform our views, and present the information in an impartial manner.
Visit our website https://kailashconcepts.com/ for more details.
2023-12-14 23:32
“Small, independent, decentralized business of the kind that built up our country, of the kind that made our country great, first, is fast disappearing, and second, is being made dep… Read More
2023-12-01 11:03
History rhymes. Doesn’t repeat. Valuation doesn’t matter until it is all that matters.
Stocks valued at 10x price to sales (P/S) are difficult to justify. The CEO of Sun Micros… Read More
2023-11-17 00:59
In our June piece External Obsolescence: Tech Investors’ Newest Nightmare, we explained how the consensus view on AI stocks might simply be misplaced confidence that had sent multipl… Read More
2023-11-02 16:33
Profiting from Human Behavior has Rarely been as Obvious or Difficult as Today
FOMO includes both the perception of missing out, which triggers anxiety, and compulsive behaviors … i… Read More
2023-10-05 22:19
In our piece, Economic Cycles and Mean Reversion, we discussed how corporate profit margins had risen to levels above the prior century’s peak in 1929. We have updated the chart used… Read More
2023-10-05 11:54
How “Bro-Culture” Grifters are Distorting Price Signals, Capitalism & Culture
Over nearly 15 years, KCR has never highlighted any one person, instead preferring to make our p… Read More
2023-09-21 10:03
In our August piece, The Solvency Debate Continues, KCR updated our 2021 missive Junk Stocks Funded by Junk Bonds. We observed that 2023 had seen speculators return with a ferocious appeti… Read More
2023-09-07 22:19
KCR has written a blizzard of material on the increasingly dire investment implications of market capitalization weighted index funds due to the outsized performance of large stocks that n… Read More
2023-08-24 23:41
In a single Tweet on the demerits of a “fund of crypto hedge funds,” the legendary Cliff Asness managed to interweave the madness of meme-stocks and the volatility-suppressing… Read More
2023-08-17 23:55
Has the Liquidity Crisis of 2023 Been Forgotten?
In August of 2021, we published Junk Stocks Funded by Junk Bonds, which noted that high-yield spreads had hit record lows. Our view was tha… Read More
2023-08-03 22:24
“The private credit market has grown to the size where there is no edge other than the fake attraction of not having to mark their assets accurately and showing artificially low vola… Read More
2023-07-26 22:38
Hello everyone. This is Matt from KCR. Today we will do what is effectively a tardy half-year update. The speed and tone will be quick and sharp as the year has been challenging for evidence… Read More
2023-07-06 22:38
As AI Software Gorges on Funding, are we taking the Oil and Gas Sector for Granted?
Our recent pieces, How to Value Tech Companies and External Obsolescence: Tech Investors’ Newest N… Read More
2023-06-29 20:55
So often in the world, darkness takes over. Traumatizing events rock our foundations. Unexpected tragedies shock the world.
And when these things happen, it affects people. We often g… Read More
2023-06-22 23:30
How Consensus & Concentration are Creating the Kernel for Another Crisis
“Disturbing research warns AI may be the ‘Great Filter’ that wipes out human civilization&rdq&hellip…Read More
2023-06-08 23:32
The definition of external obsolescence principally applies to real estate. One real-estate firm explains that “…external obsolescence is something outside of a property, off… Read More
2023-06-02 00:21
A Method to the Madness: Introducing the KCR Large Cap Growth Model
“Didn’t we just learn that pouring trillions of dollars into technologies with uncertain profit profiles we… Read More
2023-05-17 13:56
Mr. Buffett recently extolled the powerful economic moat of one of the world’s most iconic companies: Apple. Berkshire spent a bit over $30bn to acquire their Apple stake, which now… Read More
2023-05-04 23:08
Professor Galloway, LIV Golf & the Meaning of Marshall Plan Aid: Context from the Past
I need not tell you gentlemen that the world situation is very serious. That must be apparent to a… Read More
2023-04-27 22:49
The Fed has shown some mettle over the last year but historically I would not say [Federal Reserve chair] Jay Powell is a profile in courage … one area I’m comfortable is I&rs&hellip…Read More
2023-04-20 23:16
The Extraordinary Opportunities in Some of the Market’s Highest Quality Stocks
In April last year, KCR penned What is Accounting Quality and Why it Matters. The work discussed the ab… Read More
2023-03-30 22:10
A(nother) Rant About America’s Blossoming Love for Battery Powered Vehicles
In November last year we published Tesla Gas Mileage & The Philanthropic Rush to Ruin. The rant tried to… Read More
2023-03-27 19:23
A Review of 90 Days of Noise & Nonsense Among Speculative Investments
At the start of the year, KCR penned ARKK vs. QQQ in the Dot.Com Bust and Specious vs. Spurious Correlation. The p… Read More
2023-03-16 19:48
How KCR’s Valuation Models Make a Myth of “Cheap at the Peak”
Happy Friday everyone! This piece is going to be brief, brutal, and to the point.
Over the past two years, s… Read More
2023-03-09 23:22
Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits by Phil Fisher
In 1958 Philip A. Fisher published Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits in the hope of giving investors a systematic process to follow when… Read More
2023-03-02 12:24
All too often, discussions of new and next-gen tech focus on the effects on consumers and markets in more developed parts of the world. We thought it worth highlighting examples of cutting-e… Read More
2023-02-23 15:25
A Tale of Three Markets & An Abundance of Opportunity
“We’ve had 40+ years where all the money went into broadband, or internet, or Netflix or the cloud and no money went i… Read More
2023-02-10 01:14
The Quest for Causation in an Era with Only One Prior Precedent
Spurious vs. Specious: The Merriam-Webster dictionary tells us that despite both terms featuring deceptive or deceitful in… Read More
2023-02-03 15:55
What an Old Idiom & Chat GPT Means for You
Definitions and Generally Accepted Interpretations:
Something new is replacing something that is old or out of date[i],[ii]
Life improves by re… Read More
2023-02-03 00:51
What Can We Learn About Growth & Value from the Dot.Com Implosion
The Market is Frothy Once Again!
KCR is not surprised at the amount of Wall Street shills claiming they can predict th… Read More
2023-01-31 00:12
We recently posted a year end piece summarizing KCR’s work from 2022. There were so many blistering charts that we broke the recap into two parts. The first, Short Term St… Read More
2023-01-26 23:03
Sorry, your browser doesn't support embedded videos.This 40-second video synopsizes why we decided to dedicate one piece a month to stepping back and focusing on gratitude and kindness.
Grea… Read More
2023-01-20 03:03
Innovation as an Asset Class: The Implosion of the Nasdaq 100 & Ark Invest ETF
2020 was a brutal year for KCR. US bonds rose to offensive levels, offering investors a 0.50% yield, whil… Read More
2023-01-13 02:38
2022 Year in Review: The Bull Case on Essential Industries
Last week’s piece Short Term Stock Speculators Beat a Hasty Retreat, walked through the blizzard of work we did on the conti… Read More
2023-01-06 01:52
At the end of last year, we posted a piece reviewing our research from 2021. We explained that after a brutal 2020 where we were bombarded by skeptics, ‘21 had been a terrific year f… Read More
2022-12-30 11:51
How the Crypto-FTX-Fraud Could be Masking Epic Capital Misallocation
Accounting Tools states that cash flow to stockholders is the amount of money a firm pays its equity owners. They expla… Read More
2022-12-16 15:27
In a world where online services fulfill most needs, self-checkout is being introduced in more and more stores, and airpods fill more ears each day, it has never been easier to avoid contact… Read More
2022-12-09 17:35
Market Prices Suggest the Movement to a Green Grid Will Fail
Happy Friday everyone! Quick piece on some of the market’s cheapest and most unpopular stocks.
Our piece, The Role… Read More
2022-12-02 19:01
Have Policy-Makers Given Investors a Secular Growth Story for Cyclical Stocks?
Our research is empirically based and tends towards places that are uncomfortable and out-of-favor. In… Read More
2022-11-21 19:15
Our team believes in inefficient markets, behavioral finance, empirical evidence, and common sense. Having penned brutally simple pieces explaining the risks large cap, large-cap, and… Read More
2022-11-18 06:25
Today’s presentation is going to be an update on the bull case for high quality small cap stocks we made in May of 2021. In that May 2021 piece, we highlighted the following three ke… Read More
2022-11-11 17:49
How the Rotation from Risk On to Risk Off is…Creating Risk
The Oxford University Press tells us that the principal meaning of being “flush with cash” is having a lot of… Read More
2022-11-04 14:08
A Quick Peek at the Russell Large Cap Growth Index
Understandably smitten with low fees and a long bull market, index fund promoters appear to have the data on their side. A collectio… Read More
2022-10-28 18:40
The Cash Crucible & the Acceleration of Financial Repression
“Cash is a Legitimate Asset Class for the First Time in Decades, Investors are piling into products that shield them… Read More
2022-10-21 18:03
This Tool Can Bring Calm to Chaos
Reverse inquiries looking for our Buffett 10-Year Returns Estimation Tool suggested another post was in order. We’ll explain where the t… Read More
2022-10-14 15:09
The Case for Investing in What you Need vs. What you Want Made Simple
Since 2020, this newsletter has used historical data to explain the case for investing in companies that make what you… Read More
2022-10-07 15:52
Tap Dancing with TINA & a Moment to Remember in US Monetary Policy
Macro Investing: The Rising Pressure of a Decade of Fiscal Profligacy
KCR’s investment process does not use ma… Read More
2022-09-23 15:13
What Short Sellers, the Voting and Weighing Machine are Offering Investors Today
KCR’s data-driven and historically informed process helps us avoid bubbles, find mispriced quality… Read More
2022-09-20 21:21
The Tesla Model S MPG Figures Sure are Alluring
First the reported numbers. Various sources state that the Tesla Model S gets combined MPG somewhere between 96mpg and 120mpg.[i],[ii],[iii]… Read More
2022-09-16 17:20
KCR’s systematic, evidence-based analytical and investment process is driven by the historical record. Our financial faith resides in what the data shows. Human beings ha… Read More
2022-09-09 16:47
KCR’s work leans heavily on sentiment for good reason. The presence of our in-house academic and co-founder does not mean we are advocates of efficient markets. Much of t… Read More
2022-08-26 17:18
Profiting from the Reckoning with Reality
KCR readers know we have been long-term bulls on energy stocks and have relentlessly panned the high-priced promises of so-called clean-tech energy… Read More
2022-08-19 06:30
A Tight Labor Market Returns the Upper Hand to American Workers
The always wonderful John Authers put out a recent piece on inflation. Discussing comments out of the UK, he observed, &ldqu&hellip…Read More
2022-08-05 15:50
The High Price of Cool Stuff: An Update on Stocks Valued Over 10x P/S
Lucid Motors Logo: A Symbol of the Future?
It’s been a hot stretch of summer for the KCR equity research team.&n&hellip…Read More
2022-07-27 02:48
At KCR, we believe in solving problems and one of the greatest issues we hear from subscribers is how to compound their capital safely in today’s market environment. Kailash Capital ha… Read More
2022-07-22 08:00
Understanding Reversion to the Mean: Revisiting Buffett’s 1999 Fortune Article
In 1999, Warren Buffett gave a rare explanation of why he felt the stock market would generate poor ret… Read More
2022-07-08 18:37
Mean Reversion Made Simple
This paper provides simple context to what are often difficult and highly emotional decisions around money. KCR spent much of 2020 and 2021 producing evidence… Read More
2022-07-01 15:26
US Large Cap Core Funds: Historical Weights at Various Levels of Valuations
The chart below shows the average weights at different levels of valuation of a typical index fund made up of lar… Read More
2022-06-24 16:18
The phrase “I got Enroned” has entered the investing lexicon recently. KCR believes the term is slang to describe the losses being incurred by investors in stocks with indefensi… Read More
2022-06-17 15:51
Beginning in March of 2021, KCR’s quantitative research has provided consistent evidence that Staples and Energy stocks present investors with the opportunity to buy companies of high… Read More
2022-06-10 18:21
Asset Allocations Need to Stay Disciplined to Work
The chart below shows the compound return spread from investing in the Russell 1000 Growth Index less an equal investment in the Russell 1… Read More
2022-06-03 18:19
We get asked this question. A lot. Investors, scorched by multiple expansion in speculative stocks, are understandably concerned about the movement of prices in oil and gas. We belie… Read More
2022-05-27 15:50
The Persistence of High-Priced Stocks Sitting on High Hopes
Tesla Price to Sales Ratio: A Stock Price & Market Capitalization Problem Owned by the Many
I’m staring at a list of s… Read More
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