Aside from the organisational cockups at the beginning, and the fact that associate nations effectively had to qualify for the Tournament twice, this has been a pretty good World T20 thus far. We’ve had some very close games, the odd upset – Afghanistan take a bow – and some big teams going home early.

Of course, it always helps if the team you’re supporting does well. My favourite football World Cup has always been Italia 90 because England were just a Chris Waddle penalty away from winning the thing (I’m sure we would’ve beaten an uninspiring Argentina in the final). Similarly, I remember the 1992 cricket World Cup fondly because England were the most consistent team. I’m enjoying this WT20 more than usual because England have performed beyond expectations. It sure beats the humiliations we’ve grown accustomed to.

The big question is what’s going to happen next? Will England’s journey end on Wednesday, when we play the team of the tournament thus far, or will the ‘dream’ live on? I call it a dream because England’s progress seems a tad unreal and otherworldly. Winning WT20s is always very pleasant, but it’s hardly the ultimate goal or ‘dream’ of English cricket followers.

Nevertheless, Wednesday’s semi final is still a very big game. Can we win? Sure we can. The Kiwis have done very well so far, but T20 is an unpredictable format and it’s hard for teams to keep winning without the odd hiccup. An optimist might suggest that New Zealand are due a failure. Have they peaked too early? New Zealand will be favourites but England have a good chance too.

The problem, however, is that England have probably been a bit lucky so far. We certainly don’t look like the finished article. We were poor against the West Indies, bowled appallingly (but batted beautifully) against South Africa, got ourselves into a dreadful hole against Afghanistan, and almost blew what looked like an impregnable position against Sri Lanka. If New Zealand might have peaked too early, England most certainly have not.

Naturally my main worry is our bowling. Spinners been vitally important in the tournament thus far and England’s spinners have both been poor. Meanwhile, although our seamers have done well at times, the likes of Jordan and Stokes are hardly the most consistent performers. At some point, this lack of quality will probably cost us.

Fortunately however, T20 is a batsman’s game and contests are often decided by which team’s big-hitters manage get their eye in. When you see what’s happened to bowlers like Dale Steyn in this tournament, one could argue that a bowling attack’s pedigree is meaningless once a world-class player like Gayle, de Villiers, Kohli or, dare I say it, a Root or Buttler get going. Perhaps the number of match-winning batsmen in England’s XI offsets our lack of match-winning bowlers?

The fun thing about T20 is that nobody really has the answers. There’s always shed loads of analysis – how can there not be when coverage is so extensive? – but in the end nobody really knows what’s going to happen. Predictions almost seem futile.

Having said that, this is a cricket blog and wildly inaccurate stabs in the dark make the blogosphere go round; therefore I’m not going to let the sheer futility of making predictions prevent me from making even more of them. So here we go …

My best guess – and I admit this is a complete guess – is that the winners of this year’s tournament will come from the second semi-final between India and the West Indies. Why? Because it often comes down to experience in the end. Nobody has played more T20 cricket in this part of the world than India (obviously), and the West Indies XI is packed full of short-format specialists who make a living on the T20 circuit.

Does this mean England or New Zealand can’t or won’t win the final? Absolutely not. I just feel that India, despite all the pressure, are still the best team in the tournament. Meanwhile, the West Indies looked a class above England in their meeting a couple of weeks ago.

The one thing in our favour, however, is that England aren’t really under pressure like the other teams. India have to carry a huge burden of expectation and the Windies will know this is probably the last hurrah for many of their ageing stars.

As for New Zealand, I’m not sure how they’ll be feeling. They’ve reached the semis for the first time in ages. I suspect that both England and the Kiwis will simply be happy to make it this far – which will make them more relaxed and perhaps therefore more dangerous. The psychology of T20 is a fascinating one. Who would’ve predicted that little Leicestershire would win our domestic T20 tournament three times? Sometimes it’s good to be the underdog.

James Morgan

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