Pick one. Not so easy, right? [Marc-Gregor Campredon]
If you can only choose one, which player would you rather have back next year: Moe Wagner or DJ Wilson?
Ace: The genesis of this question was a lengthy twitter thread that had some good points on both sides. While it’s close, I lean just barely to the side of Wagner, who I think is a better college player than pro prospect; Wilson is the opposite. While you’re certainly sacrificing some Defense to keep Wagner, the consistently efficient offensive outputs are tough to pass up, especially since he showed last year he can create for himself, something the team sorely needs sans Walton (especially) and Irvin.
Wilson is a bit too much of a wild card; he can put it all together and make this conversation look stupid, or he can essentially be the guy he was last year—he’d need to dramatically change his approach to be the lead guy we’d want him to be.
BiSB: I agree that Wagner is a better college player. But at the same time, I think Wilson leaving would leave a bigger hole in the lineup. Teske and Davis are largely untested, but at least they are extant. Unless Wagner is going to play minutes in a two-big sort of lineup, you're looking at Duncan Robinson playing a ton of minutes at the four. And while his defense has gotten somewhat better, and you can get away with it against certain types of teams, that's still a glaring hole in the defense.
Brian: This question depends heavily on how much those guys improve from last year, when they were way behind Mark Donnal. To be honest, I'd expect a Wilson-no-Wagner team to have DJ at the 5 for 20 minutes a game. Late last season that was almost already the case and small ball is all the rage at every level of basketball.
Ace: The defensive impact is what keep this close for me. Wilson is more versatile positionally, quicker, and a better rim protector. But I’m also not sold on Teske or Davis being a better option than more Robinson; I’m not sure either packs enough offensive oomph to make that a desirable swap. There are lineups than can run Robinson off the court, but there are also lineups that can probably run Teske, who’s rather ponderous, off the court as well.
BiSB: Perhaps my assumption that John Beilein could turn five confused baby ducklings into a top-25 KenPom offense is too strong.
But I do feel like DJ is what gives Michigan flexibility at both ends of the court.
[Hit THE JUMP as the debate continues, now with Synergy numbers.]
The more refined offensive player... [Bryan Fuller]
Brian: Also our NBA draft entrants aren't static players either. The NBA evidently thinks that Wilson has more upside at their level. In college I'm not so sure. Wagner is 14 months younger and should improve more rapidly.
Ace: Wilson’s NBA upside is also focused on him becoming more developed as a role player, not expanding his repertoire to be an all-around superstar. His NBA value is going to be as a versatile defender who can shoot with range. He’s not going to be a big-usage guy. Wagner already has a pretty advanced offensive game.
Seth: CT put out a tweet yesterday on Wilson-less lineups:
pic.twitter.com/3vMjaJYWvA
— CT in TC (@CT_In_TC) May 18, 2017
I think a lineup that can run Robinson off the court can also feature Wilson at the 5. Like Ace and BiSB said, that versatility is an underrated weapon in the hands of a tinkerer like Beilein. There's also the downside of projection: what if Wagner stalls out on defense, or his development doesn't come until February when Michigan has to make another run like last year to even make the tourney. And I put some stock in the idea that DJ's defense has a psychological effect, or at least the absence of an excellent defender can sink morale.
...or the superior defender with positional flexibility? [Eric Upchurch]
BiSB: I'm not terribly worried about Wagner stalling out. The rate of improvement may be unsustainable, but...
Ace: While he’s a more limited athlete, Wagner’s defensive issues also stem largely from mental lapses and a lack of functional strength. Those are almost certain to improve.
I think it still comes back to offensive creation, though. Wagner drove a lot of his own offense last year. It takes skill and smarts to be as good as he was as the roll/pop man off high screens, something Wilson didn’t do a whole lot of last year. Per Synergy, Wagner was 81st percentile nationally on post-ups and 77th on isolations. On a much lower volume, Wilson was 51st and 77th, respectively.
If Michigan pushed tempo more, Wilson would add more offensive value, because he’s a great transition player. If anything, though, Michigan may push the tempo less without Walton snagging a bunch of boards.
Seth: I think you've convinced me Ace, but I'm making a devil's advocate case: I trust the development curve, but it's becoming almost tradition now for that to come late in the season. M has a couple of shots at a signature non-conference victory very early in Maui and then the UCLA at home and the Texas return trip. Does DJ or Mo give Michigan a better shot to win those games? Because whatever team is on the court in November you know it'll be far worse than what's out there in February.
Ace: Wilson’s regular disappearing acts down the stretch last year isn’t really helping his case in that context. And, as Brian noted, Wagner is the younger player. He’s as likely to have a breakthrough (more likely on defense than offense) as Wilson. Plus Wagner is more advanced right now, for those November games.
BiSB: It is decided. Both must stay, so we can see who was right.
Seth: Alright then my last arguments for DJ: 1) Wagner is a foul magnet, and since he doesn't actually commit many of those fouls I don't know if that can be fixed. And 2) DJ is by far the more sartorially pleasing player. High hair and short shorts are interesting and cool. Wagner doesn't have so much as a stick-on tat.
Ace: The hair and shorts would be sorely missed, granted.
Wagner’s foul issues are a little overblown now because the nature of his fouls were often frustrating and Beilein did his autobench thing, which was more viable with Wilson presenting another option at center. His 4.5 fouls/40 minutes mark is pretty reasonable for a center.
Rebounding hasn't been a strength for either player. [Campredon]
Ace: Honestly, rebounding should be the area where Wilson swings this in his favor, but he just wasn’t aggressive enough last year. I know I don’t need to bring up specific instances.
Brian: Yeah, every once in a while he'd grab an OREB and I was like "where has that been all year?"
BiSB: How much of that was schematic, though? Michigan sent four guys back on almost every shot, and has for quite some time.
Brian: They let GRIII go on the offensive boards so I don't see why it would be impossible.
Ace: Beilein mentioned that he reminded Wilson to attack the glass more before the Rutgers game. Had six offensive boards. It didn’t stick—only had two multi-OR games the rest of the year. That’s on Wilson.
BiSB: True. At the same time... Rutgers. (And yes, I know rebounding was the one thing Rutgers Athletics did reasonably okay... but I stand by my "Rutgers")
Ace: He had six against Illinois in the revenge game, too. Then the rebounding disappeared again.
Brian: Wilson's defense also varied in its intensity a great deal. At times he was very aggressive and very, very good. But for big chunks of the year it felt like he wasn't making much of a difference because he was also scared of foul trouble. You have to hope that the addition of Davis and (hopeful) development of Teske makes those guys more willing to take chances.
Last year every foul had someone on the team looking back at the bench for Donnal. If a rebounder and decent defender is in that role this year the foul trouble is less of a disaster.
Ace: Or hopefully—and last year did provide some hope here—Beilein becomes even less stringent about autobench and his players stop looking over their shoulder after every foul. But that’s probably unrealistic.
BiSB: It felt like his relenting on the autobench was more for the guards. He let MAAR go more than most. I think it stays the rule for the bigs?
Ace: He made a couple exceptions in tourney time, but you kinda have to at that point.
More of this, please.
Brian: I have my doubts that Wagner is ever going to be a plus defender--his combine testing numbers were very bad--but if he stops getting every 50/50 call against him and adds ten pounds he can be functional, right? He was the only guy on the team to rank nationally in steal rate (2.7%) last year and we all remember that game against Swanigan where he had something like seven turnovers. He was a wing two years ago, he should be a bad defender.
That plus his ability to create shots and spread the floor from the 5 make me vote Wagner even if Wilson is a better NBA prospect.
Ace: His ability to create havoc can turn him into an average defender, and at that point I think he’s the obvious choice because of his offense.
BiSB: Gah, I'm convinced. Wagner uber Wilson.
Ace: I should mention since I’m staring at the Synergy defense page: it’s a big gap between Wilson and Wagner. There’s a similar gap in offensive usage, however.
Brian: Let us have the numbers Ace.
Ace: Wilson graded out in the 83rd percentile, 0.74 PPP allowed. Wagner: 17th, 0.98.
Based on usage and the eyeball test, though, Wilson did a lot of that against wings.
Brian: yaaargh
Ace: It’s a lot closer in post defense. Wilson was 42nd percentile, Wagner 22nd.
Brian: What was Donnal?
Ace: 25th percentile in post defense.
Brian: So it shouldn't be hard for one of the two second-year players to provide an upgrade in that department.
Ace: The extremely limited Teske sample, not to mention his whole recruiting profile, indicates that would be the case. Gave up nine points on 15 defensive possessions.
If Matthews was a sure thing I’d still probably lean Wilson because of the defensive gap. But… he’s not.
Brian: I'm in the "irrationally positive about Austin Davis" camp as well.
Ace: You’re in company with John Beilein, whose positivity hopefully isn’t irrational, so there may be something to that. Between Teske and Davis I expect they’ll have a functional backup big.
Please be as good as you are large. [Fuller]
Alex: Kinda busy at work but I think it's easy for us to overrate Wilson's defense because of his physical tools but he still needs to add strength and didn't really protect the rim consistently as a four. He's better than most Michigan defenders, but Irvin and Rahkman split the team "best defense" award. He still has a ways to go too.
FWIW I'd take Wagner because individual offense is typically more valuable than individual defense and I do think Wagner will improve at least a little bit as a rebounder and defensive paint presence because I guarantee the NBA feedback revolved almost entirely around that.
Also I think Wagner is a much better ball-screen partner for Jaaron Simmons and that's not a knock on Wilson. Wagner's pick-and-pop to the wing is lethal, he does a decent job making himself available on the roll, and he can destroy switches in a variety of ways.
Ace: Agreed on all of that. Wilson playing center sometimes helped him become more aggressive—he hunted blocks more at the five—but he still had lapses, especially on the boards. Meanwhile, he’d need to become a more complete offensive player, while Wagner is pretty much set in that regard.
Alex: He has Frank Kaminsky-type potential on the off chance he actually stays for four years.
Ace: This is a great comp, and also shows why Michael Jordan was insane to pick Kaminsky two spots ahead of Myles Turner, but that’s another conversation.
With that, we’re probably done here.
Alex: Michael Jordan: not a great GM.
BiSB: Lavar Ball would be a better... /BiSB is beaten to death by everyone
