Season: 118-74
Last Week: 11-5
ATS: 22-28-2 (Last Week: 1-3) Lock: 5-8
Redskins: 9-2
Houston at Jacksonville: Horrible game between two horrible teams. But one team feels a whole lot better about themselves right now and that's the one I like to pull this one out. Kubiak almost certainly playing out the string here.
Jaguars 22, Texans 21
Kansas City at Washington: This is a shockingly low spread to me (3), so that gives me pause. But the Redskins are not only 3-9 on the season, they are 3-9 against the spread--- the majority of those losses by giving up the cover in the 4th quarter. I just can't see this one not following that same protocol. I don't think the Redskins have quit, but they are a mess and confidence is shot. Chiefs will gradually wear them down and be comfortably ahead late.
Chiefs 27, Redskins 16
Minnesota at Baltimore: Vikings don't seem to be packing it in, but their offense is so absurdly predicated on AD being a hero every week. The Ravens defense is good enough to make sure he doesn't beat them and keep the rest of the Vikings "weapons" at bay for a relatively easy win.
Ravens 26, Vikings 17
Cleveland at New England: The Browns would have very much been alive in the wild card hunt had they defeated the Jaguars last week, which makes their home loss even the more discouraging and deflating for their already grumpy fanbase. All of a sudden, the Browns defense looks horrid. New England romps.
Patriots 33, Browns 15
Oakland at New York Jets: I guess the Jets are who we thought they were. At one point, Rex may have been in coach of the year consideration; now he is most certainly on the hot seat again.
Raiders 20, Jets 17
Indianapolis at Cincinnati: I still see the Bengals as the third most dangerous team in the AFC (behind the Pats and Broncos and ahead of the Chiefs), and if I'm right about that, this is a game they will win.
Bengals 24, Colts 20
Detroit at Philadelphia: You have to call the Eagles a well coached team because right now I think their whole is greater than the sum of their parts. They are getting off to great starts against their opposition and then holding on to win, which is an indication to me that they are well prepared, but perhaps not physically dominant. The Lions are a rollercoaster that is hard to read, but I see them cemented their status this Sunday as the North favorite.
Lions 28, Eagles 25
Atlanta at Green Bay: Impossible to make an informed prediction here not knowing the status of Aaron Rodgers, but either way I'll say the Packers find a way to finally win a game against a team that might be looking towards the off season already.
Packers 23, Falcons 21
Miami at Pittsburgh: Big Ben is quietly carrying the Steelers this year and keeping them just afloat in the playoff picture. He made a perfect pass on the two point conversion attempt in Baltimore that would have tied the game, but it was dropped. This is do or die for the Steelers and their recent play leads me to believe that this is a game they get.
Steelers 23, Dolphins 19
Buffalo at Tampa Bay: Disappointing loss for the Bills last week in what has turned into yet another disappointing season after a fairly promising start. Not sure if the Bucs will bring the same energy now that their mini winning streak is over and reality sets in again. This is a coin toss game. Playing a small gut feel here.
Bills 18, Bucs 15
Tennessee at Denver: Wouldn't be surprised one bit if the Broncos have a bit of a letdown this week and slog through this game. I WOULD be surprised if they lose the game outright.
Broncos 27, Titans 20
St. Louis at Arizona: Fun time to be a Rams fan. They look like a team that is a few skill position players away from being a legit contender in the NFC next year. And they have two first round picks to help find those players, one of which even has a chance to be the number one overall selection (Redskins). Arizona gets the best of them this week, but overall, I'd rather be in the Rams' shoes.
Cardinals 22, Rams 15
New York Giants at San Diego: Desperation time for both of these teams. The Giants have won five of six, but the one loss over that stretch came against the one decent team they've played. These are two flawed teams that aren't a threat to do anything meaningful this year, but I do think it could be an entertaining game-- edge to the Chargers in a close one.
Chargers 30, Giants 27
Seattle at San Francisco: Really, this is a meaningless game for the Seahawks except for the fact that they could wrap things up even earlier if they win. But Seattle is going to be the #1 seed in the NFC regardless of what happens Sunday. Much more important game for the Niners.
49ers 21, Seahawks 17
Carolina at New Orleans: Really fun game and a great test to see if the Panthers are a true contender in the NFC or just a wild card caliber squad. I do know that if I was a Panthers fan that I wouldn't be overjoyed that the Saints are coming off a colossal spanking on national TV. My big question about Carolina is whether their offense can keep pace if the game turns into more a track meet-- which is normally does in the Superdome.
Saints 29, Panthers 23
Dallas at Chicago: Right now, things seem to be calming down for the Cowboys. But this has been the exact moment in year's past where they leave you scratching your head. Chicago comes in desperately needing a win following two losses where their defense was run over by journeymen QB's. Playing a hunch based on recent history here.
Bears 27, Cowboys 24
Against the Spread (lock listed first):
1. Chiefs (-3) at Redskins
2. Ravens (-6.5) vs. Vikings
3. Saints (-3.5) vs. Panthers
4. Titans (+12) at Broncos
Last Week: 11-5
ATS: 22-28-2 (Last Week: 1-3) Lock: 5-8
Redskins: 9-2
Houston at Jacksonville: Horrible game between two horrible teams. But one team feels a whole lot better about themselves right now and that's the one I like to pull this one out. Kubiak almost certainly playing out the string here.
Jaguars 22, Texans 21
Kansas City at Washington: This is a shockingly low spread to me (3), so that gives me pause. But the Redskins are not only 3-9 on the season, they are 3-9 against the spread--- the majority of those losses by giving up the cover in the 4th quarter. I just can't see this one not following that same protocol. I don't think the Redskins have quit, but they are a mess and confidence is shot. Chiefs will gradually wear them down and be comfortably ahead late.
Chiefs 27, Redskins 16
Minnesota at Baltimore: Vikings don't seem to be packing it in, but their offense is so absurdly predicated on AD being a hero every week. The Ravens defense is good enough to make sure he doesn't beat them and keep the rest of the Vikings "weapons" at bay for a relatively easy win.
Ravens 26, Vikings 17
Cleveland at New England: The Browns would have very much been alive in the wild card hunt had they defeated the Jaguars last week, which makes their home loss even the more discouraging and deflating for their already grumpy fanbase. All of a sudden, the Browns defense looks horrid. New England romps.
Patriots 33, Browns 15
Oakland at New York Jets: I guess the Jets are who we thought they were. At one point, Rex may have been in coach of the year consideration; now he is most certainly on the hot seat again.
Raiders 20, Jets 17
Indianapolis at Cincinnati: I still see the Bengals as the third most dangerous team in the AFC (behind the Pats and Broncos and ahead of the Chiefs), and if I'm right about that, this is a game they will win.
Bengals 24, Colts 20
Detroit at Philadelphia: You have to call the Eagles a well coached team because right now I think their whole is greater than the sum of their parts. They are getting off to great starts against their opposition and then holding on to win, which is an indication to me that they are well prepared, but perhaps not physically dominant. The Lions are a rollercoaster that is hard to read, but I see them cemented their status this Sunday as the North favorite.
Lions 28, Eagles 25
Atlanta at Green Bay: Impossible to make an informed prediction here not knowing the status of Aaron Rodgers, but either way I'll say the Packers find a way to finally win a game against a team that might be looking towards the off season already.
Packers 23, Falcons 21
Miami at Pittsburgh: Big Ben is quietly carrying the Steelers this year and keeping them just afloat in the playoff picture. He made a perfect pass on the two point conversion attempt in Baltimore that would have tied the game, but it was dropped. This is do or die for the Steelers and their recent play leads me to believe that this is a game they get.
Steelers 23, Dolphins 19
Buffalo at Tampa Bay: Disappointing loss for the Bills last week in what has turned into yet another disappointing season after a fairly promising start. Not sure if the Bucs will bring the same energy now that their mini winning streak is over and reality sets in again. This is a coin toss game. Playing a small gut feel here.
Bills 18, Bucs 15
Tennessee at Denver: Wouldn't be surprised one bit if the Broncos have a bit of a letdown this week and slog through this game. I WOULD be surprised if they lose the game outright.
Broncos 27, Titans 20
St. Louis at Arizona: Fun time to be a Rams fan. They look like a team that is a few skill position players away from being a legit contender in the NFC next year. And they have two first round picks to help find those players, one of which even has a chance to be the number one overall selection (Redskins). Arizona gets the best of them this week, but overall, I'd rather be in the Rams' shoes.
Cardinals 22, Rams 15
New York Giants at San Diego: Desperation time for both of these teams. The Giants have won five of six, but the one loss over that stretch came against the one decent team they've played. These are two flawed teams that aren't a threat to do anything meaningful this year, but I do think it could be an entertaining game-- edge to the Chargers in a close one.
Chargers 30, Giants 27
Seattle at San Francisco: Really, this is a meaningless game for the Seahawks except for the fact that they could wrap things up even earlier if they win. But Seattle is going to be the #1 seed in the NFC regardless of what happens Sunday. Much more important game for the Niners.
49ers 21, Seahawks 17
Carolina at New Orleans: Really fun game and a great test to see if the Panthers are a true contender in the NFC or just a wild card caliber squad. I do know that if I was a Panthers fan that I wouldn't be overjoyed that the Saints are coming off a colossal spanking on national TV. My big question about Carolina is whether their offense can keep pace if the game turns into more a track meet-- which is normally does in the Superdome.
Saints 29, Panthers 23
Dallas at Chicago: Right now, things seem to be calming down for the Cowboys. But this has been the exact moment in year's past where they leave you scratching your head. Chicago comes in desperately needing a win following two losses where their defense was run over by journeymen QB's. Playing a hunch based on recent history here.
Bears 27, Cowboys 24
Against the Spread (lock listed first):
1. Chiefs (-3) at Redskins
2. Ravens (-6.5) vs. Vikings
3. Saints (-3.5) vs. Panthers
4. Titans (+12) at Broncos
