Season: 54-36-1
Last Week: 10-4-1
Redskins: 5-1
ATS: 10-14 (Last Week: 2-2)
Lock: 3-3
Getting back on track with the locks; Browns were an easy winner over the Steelers last week both SU and ATS. Missed a 3-1 week ATS by a half point; overall things are looking better in that regard, although climbing out from four games below .500 in the NFL is a long climb. Let's gloss over my Bucs over Ravens upset pick last week, might have been a misprint.
New York Jets at New England: The Jets generally play the Patriots tough; it might be the one feather in Rex Ryan's cap that he takes away from his tenure in New York. However, I think things are crumbling for them right now and precisely the same time the Patriots look to have figured some things out. I think we are in danger of another Thursday night massacre here.
Patriots 30, Jets 16
Cincinnati at Indianapolis: This seems to be a trend for the Bengals: Just when they look like they might be venturing towards top of the class status, the experience a week (or two) that immediately brings them back to the pack. Two straight weeks their defense has gotten owned-- at New England was a tough spot, but the Panthers at home should not have been that difficult to handle. Now, they were a chippy FG away from being 4-1, but my confidence in them is shaken a bit. My gut tells me they win this game, but this is stay away game from me.
Bengals 23, Colts 21
Tennessee at Washington: This spread jumped from -4 to -6 in a hurry for a reason. These are two of the bottom feeders in the league, but the Redskins are probably a tad better than their 1-5 record indicates. Five of the six teams the Redskins have played thus far may find themselves deep in the playoff hunt come December. The one lousy team they faced (Jax), they crushed. I don't think they will repeat that performance, but I don't see a nail-biter either.
Redskins 31, Titans 20
Miami at Chicago: At some point, the Bears MUST win at home, right?
Bears 31, Dolphins 24
Cleveland at Jacksonville: Beware of the traditionally subpar team that suddenly starts getting accolades. The Jags have been increasingly competitive this year and I see them giving the suddenly surging Browns a scare on Sunday.
Browns 20, Jaguars 17
Seattle at St. Louis: Not sure there was ever going to be "good" time for this Rams offense to catch the Seahawks D, but I'd say catching them coming off a home loss to Dallas is a particularly poor time. Austin Davis looks overmatched at QB and it won't get any easier on Sunday.
Seahawks 27, Rams 13
Carolina at Green Bay: I'm not sure how you're supposed to feel after a tie. But I suppose if you were a seven point underdog and you escaped a normally gimmie field goal in overtime, you feel pretty good about it. The Panthers have been a little up and down this year, but they are competing hard. The defense isn't what it was last year though and Rodgers is rolling.
Packers 34, Panthers 24
Atlanta at Baltimore: Can't quite figure out the Ravens....I think I have Atlanta pegged though-- they aren't very good.
Ravens 29, Falcons 23
Minnesota at Buffalo: The Vikings offense seems to be regressing; the Bills defense should find the going much easier this week than they did last week with Brady and friends in town. Don't expect a ton of points here.
Bills 20, Vikings 15
New Orleans at Detroit: Even though it was against a terrible Vikings offense, I was impressed in how the Lions handled their business last Sunday. Without Megatron, they still put together a workmanlike performance and found a way to get it done on the road. The offense in general hasn't impressed at all since the opener, but for once, Detroit seems to be finding ways to win. Having said that, I like Sean Payton in this spot off the bye.
Saints 28, Lions 24
Kansas City at San Diego: Andy Reid is 13-2 after the bye week in his career. 15 seasons is enough of a sample to conclude that is more than just randomness. After a slow start the Chiefs looked much better and will come into this game well rested, facing a Chargers team that might be due for a minor letdown. Look for the upset here.
Chiefs 27, Chargers 24
New York Giants at Dallas: Speaking of trends, history says to unload on the Giants here as the underdog covers the spread in an absurd percentage in games played at Jerryworld. It has held true the previous two Cowboys games and I wouldn't be surprised one bit fir the Giants came out and pulled the upset. But this Cowboys team is rolling right now and while I do think they are playing a bit over their heads, I don't think this is a fluke.
Cowboys 31, Giants 24
Arizona at Oakland: As often happens immediately following a coaching change, the Raiders looked more inspired and sharper than they did under Dennis Allen. But that also normally proves to be fleeting. The Raiders will eventually win a couple of games and at home against a somewhat hobbled team wouldn't come as a total shock to me. However, if I'm going down, I'm not hitching my wagon to Oakland.
Cardinals 26, Raiders 21
San Francisco at Denver: If this is what dysfunction gets you, then please sign me and my favorite team up for a heavy dose of it. While the rumors continue to swirl about Jim Harbaugh and his place within the organization moving forward, the 49ers continue to improve week to week. But this is terrible time for them to potentially lose Patrick Willis.
Broncos 30, 49ers 27
Houston at Pittsburgh: This may very well wind up being the 8-8 Bowl. Both teams do some things I like, but neither does them consistently enough.
Steelers 21, Texans 20
Against the Spread (lock listed first):
1. Chiefs (+4) vs. Chargers
2. Redskins (-6) vs. Titans
3. Seahawks (-7) vs. Rams
4. Texans (+3.5) vs. Steelers
Last Week: 10-4-1
Redskins: 5-1
ATS: 10-14 (Last Week: 2-2)
Lock: 3-3
Getting back on track with the locks; Browns were an easy winner over the Steelers last week both SU and ATS. Missed a 3-1 week ATS by a half point; overall things are looking better in that regard, although climbing out from four games below .500 in the NFL is a long climb. Let's gloss over my Bucs over Ravens upset pick last week, might have been a misprint.
New York Jets at New England: The Jets generally play the Patriots tough; it might be the one feather in Rex Ryan's cap that he takes away from his tenure in New York. However, I think things are crumbling for them right now and precisely the same time the Patriots look to have figured some things out. I think we are in danger of another Thursday night massacre here.
Patriots 30, Jets 16
Cincinnati at Indianapolis: This seems to be a trend for the Bengals: Just when they look like they might be venturing towards top of the class status, the experience a week (or two) that immediately brings them back to the pack. Two straight weeks their defense has gotten owned-- at New England was a tough spot, but the Panthers at home should not have been that difficult to handle. Now, they were a chippy FG away from being 4-1, but my confidence in them is shaken a bit. My gut tells me they win this game, but this is stay away game from me.
Bengals 23, Colts 21
Tennessee at Washington: This spread jumped from -4 to -6 in a hurry for a reason. These are two of the bottom feeders in the league, but the Redskins are probably a tad better than their 1-5 record indicates. Five of the six teams the Redskins have played thus far may find themselves deep in the playoff hunt come December. The one lousy team they faced (Jax), they crushed. I don't think they will repeat that performance, but I don't see a nail-biter either.
Redskins 31, Titans 20
Miami at Chicago: At some point, the Bears MUST win at home, right?
Bears 31, Dolphins 24
Cleveland at Jacksonville: Beware of the traditionally subpar team that suddenly starts getting accolades. The Jags have been increasingly competitive this year and I see them giving the suddenly surging Browns a scare on Sunday.
Browns 20, Jaguars 17
Seattle at St. Louis: Not sure there was ever going to be "good" time for this Rams offense to catch the Seahawks D, but I'd say catching them coming off a home loss to Dallas is a particularly poor time. Austin Davis looks overmatched at QB and it won't get any easier on Sunday.
Seahawks 27, Rams 13
Carolina at Green Bay: I'm not sure how you're supposed to feel after a tie. But I suppose if you were a seven point underdog and you escaped a normally gimmie field goal in overtime, you feel pretty good about it. The Panthers have been a little up and down this year, but they are competing hard. The defense isn't what it was last year though and Rodgers is rolling.
Packers 34, Panthers 24
Atlanta at Baltimore: Can't quite figure out the Ravens....I think I have Atlanta pegged though-- they aren't very good.
Ravens 29, Falcons 23
Minnesota at Buffalo: The Vikings offense seems to be regressing; the Bills defense should find the going much easier this week than they did last week with Brady and friends in town. Don't expect a ton of points here.
Bills 20, Vikings 15
New Orleans at Detroit: Even though it was against a terrible Vikings offense, I was impressed in how the Lions handled their business last Sunday. Without Megatron, they still put together a workmanlike performance and found a way to get it done on the road. The offense in general hasn't impressed at all since the opener, but for once, Detroit seems to be finding ways to win. Having said that, I like Sean Payton in this spot off the bye.
Saints 28, Lions 24
Kansas City at San Diego: Andy Reid is 13-2 after the bye week in his career. 15 seasons is enough of a sample to conclude that is more than just randomness. After a slow start the Chiefs looked much better and will come into this game well rested, facing a Chargers team that might be due for a minor letdown. Look for the upset here.
Chiefs 27, Chargers 24
New York Giants at Dallas: Speaking of trends, history says to unload on the Giants here as the underdog covers the spread in an absurd percentage in games played at Jerryworld. It has held true the previous two Cowboys games and I wouldn't be surprised one bit fir the Giants came out and pulled the upset. But this Cowboys team is rolling right now and while I do think they are playing a bit over their heads, I don't think this is a fluke.
Cowboys 31, Giants 24
Arizona at Oakland: As often happens immediately following a coaching change, the Raiders looked more inspired and sharper than they did under Dennis Allen. But that also normally proves to be fleeting. The Raiders will eventually win a couple of games and at home against a somewhat hobbled team wouldn't come as a total shock to me. However, if I'm going down, I'm not hitching my wagon to Oakland.
Cardinals 26, Raiders 21
San Francisco at Denver: If this is what dysfunction gets you, then please sign me and my favorite team up for a heavy dose of it. While the rumors continue to swirl about Jim Harbaugh and his place within the organization moving forward, the 49ers continue to improve week to week. But this is terrible time for them to potentially lose Patrick Willis.
Broncos 30, 49ers 27
Houston at Pittsburgh: This may very well wind up being the 8-8 Bowl. Both teams do some things I like, but neither does them consistently enough.
Steelers 21, Texans 20
Against the Spread (lock listed first):
1. Chiefs (+4) vs. Chargers
2. Redskins (-6) vs. Titans
3. Seahawks (-7) vs. Rams
4. Texans (+3.5) vs. Steelers
