Ayr's Scottish Grand National Meeting is always a richly contested affair with a plethora of raiders making the trip from south of the border.
But who are the trainers we should be concentrating on and who should we be wary of?
Do the south send enough firepower up to plunder all the big prizes or do the north keep something up their sleeves to fend off the raiders?
*Stats from 2006 - 2010 - LSP to Betfair S/P - Using Proform Software
Nicky Henderson
The Seven Barrows trainer has the most victories of any trainer in recent season's and produces a minor LSP -
7 winners | 33 runners | 21% S/R | +£0.75 LSP | Win & Place 13/33 - 39% S/R
The Henderson Hurdlers seem more adept at tackling Ayr than his Chasers -
Hurdlers
4 winners | 19 runners | 21% S/R | +£5.64 LSP | Win & Place 10/19 - 53% S/R
Chasers
2 winners | 12 runners | 17% S/R | -£5.63 LSP | Win & Place 2/12 - 17% S/R
*the other winner came from 1 of his 2 bumper runners
On the betting front it's clear we don't want to be looking outside of the front 3 in the market when looking at the Henderson team -
SP fav - 4 winners | 7 runners | 57% S/R | +£6.85 LSP
1st 3 in the betting - 6 winners | 17 runners | 35% S/R | +£7.75 LSP
So only 1 of his 7 winners came from outside of the front 3.
Nicky Richards
A relatively short trip from his base in Cumbria and he usually has his string in fine fettle for this 2 day meeting -
5 winners | 26 runners | 19% S/R | +£16.06 LSP | Win & Place 8/26 - 31% S/R
The Richard's Hurdlers have been where the profits are at in recent seasons although it must be noted they have also supplied most of his runners -
Hurdlers
4 winners | 18 runners | 22% S/R | +£22.79 LSP | Win & Place 7/18 - 39% S/R
Chasers
1 winner | 6 runners | 17% S/R | -£4.73 LSP | Win & Place 1/6 - 17% S/R
Ferdy Murphy
Good old Ferdy seems to like to target this meeting and his overall figures stack up well -
5 winners | 26 runners | 19% S/R | +£19.09 LSP | Win & Place 9/26 - 35% S/R
However, it's when we dig a little deeper that things start to get interesting.
ALL 5 of his winners were returning to the track within 14 days of their last start -
Runners returning to track within 1 - 14 days of last start
5 winners | 8 runners | 63% S/R | +£37.09 LSP | Win & Place 7/8 - 88% S/R
The fact that only 1 failed to even place suggests this could be a well devised plan Mr Murphy has on the go here.....
Jim Goldie
Goldie doesn't fire a huge amount of bullets at this meeting but when he does it pays to take a closer interest -
4 winners | 14 runners | 29% S/R | +£58.12 LSP | Win & Place 7/14 - 50% S/R
Nigel Twiston Davies
Another who doesn't send as many as you may think to the 2 day meeting but his select few that have made the trip more than hold their own -
3 winners | 7 runners | 43% S/R | +£15.63 LSP | Win & Place 4/7 - 57% S/R
Paul Nicholls
The champion trainer is certainly not adverse to sending a number of runners to Scotland's premier jumps meeting, however, backing all of his runners would have left you with a gaping hole in your betting bank -
5 winners | 58 runners | 9% S/R | -£42.80 LSP | Win & Place 26/58 - 45% S/R
With 45% of the runners reaching the places it's not as if they hugely underperform but the figures are telling us that in the win market at least we should be looking to oppose them. It must also be noted that all 5 winners started at 4/1 or less and 4 of the 5 started at 6/4 or less.
Venetia Williams
The West coast of Scotland in April does not appear to be a happy hunting ground for Miss Williams -
0 winners | 12 runners | 0% S/R | -£12.00 LSP | Win & Place 1/12 - 8% S/R
With only 1 runner reaching the places it may pay to approach her runners with caution.
Jonjo O'Neill
It's not as if he attacks this meeting with a huge amount of gusto but the runners he has sent on the trip north hardly inspire confidence for any future raiders -
0 winners | 7 runners | 0% S/R | -£7.00 LSP | Win & Place 0/7 - 0% S/R
Small numbers for sure but 5 of the 7 have failed to even finish their race and only 1 runner was priced at bigger than 9/1 (i.e. they were not a bunch of outsiders). I'd be looking for reasons to swerve Jonjo's runners rather than reasons to back them.
Although I would never suggest taking these type of stats as gospel they are a good pointer as to which yards are likely to be targeting the meeting and which yards maybe don't have the correct ammo for Ayr in the spring time.
Now, time to get the form book out to see if Ferdy Murphy has any entries that ran in the past 14 days.....
p.s. if you want to be updated on new Blog post then enter your details in the form at the top right corner of the blog.
Ben (NTF)
