Previewing the upcoming game is probably my least favorite post of the week. This week it is even worse because I truthfully have no idea how this game is going to go. We've seen the stats, both teams played Iowa, the long history of PSU blowing it at the Big House, and don't forget the bias in the Big 10 refs. Anyway here goes nothing.
Keys to the game Penn State
1. Stop the run, make the freshman beat you
2. Win the turnover battle
3. Find an OT that can stop or at least slow down Brandon Graham
4. Put up 7 in the red zone
5. Establish Clark as a run threat
Keys to the game Michigan
1. Get pressure on Clark
2. Limit turnovers
3. Solid play in the secondary
4. Keep the Penn State offense on the sideline
5. Get pressure on Clark (yes it is that important)
Who needs to step up for Penn State?
Offense: The run game (Oline and RB's) if PSU can establish the run early it will open up the entire field.
Defense: Jack Crawford - Crawford needs to have a good game, Forcier loves to roll out and improvise and Jack needs to play assignment football while staying aggressive.
Who needs to step up for Michigan?
Offense: Oline - If Michigan wants to win this game they will need to run the ball well. If they get one dimensional Penn State will pick them apart.
Defense: Brandon Graham - Every team that has beaten Clark has done it by pressuring him and forcing him to make bad decisions. When Clark gets in a rhythm there are not many quarterbacks in the country that are better.
Summary: I'm not going to get into the stats, truthfully in this game they are meaningless. The way I see it this a game of strength against strength, weakness against weakness. The PSU defense and Michigan offense head to head should be something to see. I however don't think the game will be decided there. Michigan will get its points, PSU's defense is pretty stout. I'm more interested in the PSU offense vs the Michigan defense.
I tend to think that the PSU offense can exploit the holes in the Michigan defense.The Penn State running game has gotten traction the last few weeks. Quarless and Shuler should have a field day in the middle of the field. There is one major concern here, protecting Clark. The Lions offensive line has steadily improved over the past few weeks but this will be the best defense they have seen since Iowa. If Clark has a clean jersey at the end of the day Michigan will be in trouble.
What is not going to matter: The refs, I'm tired of hearing about how the refs have cost Penn State wins against Michigan. While I will admit there have been some questionable calls over the years, that is part of the game. Did the refs kick the ball to the best return man in the league? Did the refs play soft zone and allow Michigan to march down he field on numerous occasions. The answer is no, Penn State lost those games.
Prediction:
I've seen predictions all across the spectrum for this game and the spread will end up somewhere between 3-5 points by game time. I don't think anyone has a handle on how this one will end up, or how good Penn State is for that matter. I'm going to take a shot in the dark and say PSU 27- Michigan 20.
