What Does a Successful Presidency Mean
Let’s talk first about the Successful Presidency and let me extend on that definition because I need to. My previous definitions have been too vague. As I have already pointed out. I can only measure if President Trump is perceived as successful. By that standard, many would not call Obama' presidency successful (about 40%). I'm also sure that if Trump's presidency is not a disaster, many (probably the same 40%) will declare him the greatest president ever. (He certainly will.[1])What I'm really thinking of is how the President's party will treat him after his term is over. A party will always refer to the last president they view as successful enough to associate with. Republicans usually use Reagan because they did not want to be associated with the 2 presidents after him. President H.W. Bush had only been elected one term and President W. Bush had.... well you know.
For democrats, they could go back to President Clinton because the economy had been so good. Before that, they usually went back to President Kennedy.
Obviously, that changes over time. President W. Bush is looking a lot better compared to the current President, and President Clinton is looking worse due to revisiting it in the Hillary Clinton's campaign. But, at some point, we start talking about how historians will think and not what politicians think.
Usually, this means that when you think of a president, mostly good achievements come to mind. Here's what I mean:
Reagan (Success)
- What 1st Comes to Mind: defeated the Soviet Union, the "Reagan Revolution", Tax Reform
- What 2nd Come to Mind: About: Iran-Contra Scandal, 1983 Beirut barracks bombings
H.W. Bush (Failure)
- What 1st Comes to Mind: a bad economy, not re-elected, Savings and Loans Scandal
- What 2nd Come to Mind: 1s Iraq War, Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990
Clinton (Mixed)
- What 1st Comes to Mind: a good economy and tech boom, sex scandals, NAFTA
- What 2nd Come to Mind: Bosnian War, checks against Saddam Hussein's aggression, Welfare Reform balanced budgets, tax increases
W. Bush (Disaster)
- What 1st Comes to Mind: 2nd Iraq War, Financial Crisis, 9/11
- What 2nd Come to Mind: Medicare Drug Act, aid to Africa
Obama (Success for now)
- What 1st Comes to Mind: ACA (Obamacare), killed Osama Bin Laden, kept us out of a depression
- What 2nd Doesn't Come to Mind: failure to close Guantanamo Bay, BP Oil Spill, VHA scandal
- To Be Determined: ISIS
I'm sure you would come up with a different list. Many do remember the 1st Iraq War and don't even know there was a Savings and Loans scandal when thinking of H. W. Bush. Also, some are subjective. The "Reagan Revolution" is the greatest thing ever to a conservative and a horror to progressives. Don't even get me started on deficit spending. But, hopefully, you see the point. After writing down your own list (without falling to the Great Delusion), you will see one President harder to sell, then others.
But, who does the selling? Why other members of the party hoping to be elected, and that's what the Success Count should measure. How much other politicians think they can sell this president? In other words, the Presidential Elevator Pitch. Thus. it’s not an idle exercise. If other politicians believe they will not be able to sell him in the future, they are encouraged to distance themselves from him and no longer defend him. That will harm his legacy and mean the difference between success and failure.
Now look. Whatever happens, his Delusionals will insist he was great and any failure was just the system being rigged. The question is this. Will there be enough fans, after he is no longer president, for politicians to invoke his name or pretend he was never president?[2]
In this way, the Presidential Elevator Pitch can become a shorthand for the Congress Count. Think of three outcomes that a non-partisan would be most likely to remember. Don’t forget to avoid the Great Delusion of Politics. Here would be my list so far:
- Travel Ban
- Russia
