Projections of the Latest Congress Count
Here are my latest Success and Disaster Count52/237 is the Senate/House Success CountFirst, off the bat, you should notice that I now have House Counts which you can look at Congress Count. I’ll get into those in a bit.
61/206 is the Senate/House Disaster Count
Second, you should now realize there is nothing Trumpy about these numbers. I could go through the same exercise with any President. (It’s just this guy made us feel we needed to.) Furthermore, these numbers (right now) are more a factor of partisanship. I would not be surprised if I got similar numbers for President Obama.
In general, what they say is that President Trump is safe from any opposition, but he will not be able to do much except basic President stuff. How can that change?
In order to increase the Success Count to 60, 8 democratic senators have to shift. That would not take a lot. 10 are up for re-election in either republican or swing states. However, as long as protests are high and Trump's approval is bellow 50%, these senators have to worry about being primaried.
If the 538 Trump Democratic Average drops bellow -5, I would consider adding the 5 senators in republican states. I've marked these 5 with '?' as they will be the first to go. If his approval goes above 50%, I would add the other 4 in swing states.
In order to get the Disaster Count to 67, 6 republican senators and 12 representatives have to ship. The first to look for is Dean Heller, but I would not give much hope. Despite him representing a swing state, his history and current voting do not support independence. After that, there are no more senators from swing states to add.
If President Trump's approval, however, starts to drop bellow 40%, I would look for more signs of independence. I've marked those where Trump won the least with '?'. The bad news is that I had to go as high as him winning by +15% to reach 6 (without including Dean Heller). The good news is that one of the +15% is Lindsey Graham. (I also can't believe one of the '?' is Ted Cruz. Good God, I'm looking for Ted Cruz to save us.)
Note, that Rand Paul comes from a +30% state so any senator could be added. However, as time goes forward I will also have to raise my criteria for 'independence' which would more likely shift the counts lower. I call this 'honing'.[1]
The House is more shifty (pun intended). As you know, majorities rule in the House. (Yeah, I made another pun.) So, If Paul Ryan stands with Trump and holds the House together, the House will stand as well. (And another one. Wait. Just one more.) You could say that with the support of all three branches, the President is tri-trump-phant. (OK. I'll stop now.)
Therefore, we only need to know what makes the Disaster Count go down. Well, first Paul Ryan has to want it. After that, finding the additional 12 representatives is easy. 16 have already voted at least once against him, and an additional 18 are in states that voted against Trump. Though, these 18 have not yet voted against them, which is why I've only marked them with a '?'. 5 seats are also vacant and up for special elections this year. Again, watch out for 'honing'
Now, how does this play out over the next 8 years? (Yeah, I said 8. Don't bury your head just yet.)
Before 2018
As of now, congress is at a standstill. (What else is new.) The President can do much in the areas of foreign policy and immigration without congress. However, without congress, he will lack some tools.[2]The Success Count is enough to provide basic funding, but he will not be able to modify departments, build the Wall, impose or lessen sanctions, pass new treaties, and so.
What he needs is to get non-trumpies on his side, enough that at least eight democratic senators will support him.
In determining President Trump's future, congress's biggest role is to keep him out of real trouble (investigations, impeachment, etc.). What tends to be missed is that the trumpies love him, not his staff. The President could find his staff picked away by scandal and leaving him effectively neutered.
And forget about new trade agreements.
2018
Obviously, the midterm election will change the numbers. The biggest change could be in the House, History is against the President, especially with an approval rating in the 40s. As stands, there is a good chance democrats could control the House. There, however, is a lot of volatility here, so that is far from certain.However, the likely result is that the republicans keep the Senate, even if the President popularity goes lower. There are just too many democrats up for re-election and too few republicans. The Senate Success Count could raise to 60, but it's unlikely even if the political environment improves.
After 2018
Here we have two realistic scenarios: either the congressional makeup stays the same or democrats take control of the House. In the first scenario, we have the same dynamic as today. In the second, the Congress is still at standstill, but democrats can run investigations unhindered. That could begin the end for President Trump.2020
Obviously, if he loses, the story's done. He's at best viewed only as a footnote in history and at worse a public failure. So, let's assume he wins. (Take a deep breath. We're just talking a hypothetical here.)Predicting the Senate elections is surprisingly easy. The opposite is true of 2018. There are 2 republicans to 1 democrat up for re-election so republicans will lose seats. The Senate will again not have enough of a major on either side to do much. The only question is whether enough seats were gained in 2018 to offset the loss in 2020.
No change over the next 4 years is in outrageous assumption. But this is a projection, not a prediction, That's how a projection works and why it is less accurate the further you project.
For the House, there are two possibilities. Either democrat resistance is holding strong at which point the House falls incrementally to democrat control, or the House gets locked into a cycle where it switches between parties.
Before 2022
Either we have the same as before 2018 or 2020 depending on whether republicans control both the Senate and House, or whether democrats control one of them.2022
Once again republicans are at a numerical disadvantage. If they have not lost control of the Senate, they will now. Past history also says that democrats will gain control of the House.After 2022
This is where the current course spells trouble for Trump. In the last 2 years of any President’s 2nd terms, the President has a problem. No other elected official cares what happens to him. Democrats will most likely control the Senate or the House, and congressional investigations will have had at least 4 years to find something. With no one else to defend him, his Presidency will be headed for disaster.Conclusion
If we project out from where we are now, we can safely say democrats will control the Senate by 2022. The House will either be locked into a cycle of switching between parties or will progressively move to democrat control. (Did I make another pun?)This means he will either lose re-election or end is 2nd term Nixon-like after 2022.
However, something will change before this. If the President get’s “lucky” with a good economy, foreign crises suited to him, or loss of democratic momentum, his presidency could become a better success. Otherwise, he has to become a better President.
His disaster will come sooner if he gets “unlucky” with a worse economy, badly run foreign crises, or we just “get tired of him”.
I’ll have to examine the individual scenarios in later posts, and of course, I will have to adjust the projection as I “hone”. Right now he’s on a slow slide into disaster. That could change, but guess which one I would bet on.
