Steve Elliot of Grassfire Nation has recently sent this around by email.

With Harry Reid under the gun for his "negro dialect" comments and public opposition to ObamaCare continuing to increase, the pressure is mounting for Democrats to finalize their backroom deal.

We believe that deal could be struck this week. Reid and Pelosi will agree to bypass the traditional House-Senate Conference and rush identical bills back to their chambers for a final vote.

But with each passing day, their secretive strategy is getting more difficult.

And although ObamaCare is still likely to pass and be signed into law, this is not a done deal!

In fact, we have identified six possible scenarios that could cause ObamaCare to be defeated.

I'll start with the least likely...

#6--Union blues
The left is nearly as angry as the Right, calling the Reid bill a bailout for the insurance industry. The unions are upset about the tax on their so-called "Cadillac" health care plans and want that removed. The Left has held the coalition together with a "live together, die alone" motto, but politics changes
with the wind. And the Left knows the winds are changing. I list this first because it is the least likely. But it is still possible.

#5--One Democrat Senator can't make it to the floor to vote. Despite the backroom deals and dirty tricks, as we understand it there will be one more final cloture vote in the Senate. Rules require 60 votes to invoke cloture. If one Democrat Senator can't make it to the floor, for any reason (health, accident, death etc.) they don't have 60 votes.

#4--The Cornhusker Kickback kicks back. Arnold Schwarzenegger told California's members of Congress to vote NO unless their state also gets the Cornhusker Kickback. Now Dems are scrambling to give every state a kickback. The more talk about kickbacks and the more uncomfortable everyone is with this entire fiasco.

#3--Abortion issue divides Democrats. Rep. Bart Stupak has already voiced his opposition to Nelson's compromise and says he has the votes to stop any abortion- funding ObamaCare bill. An equal number of House Democrats have vowed to torpedo any final bill that includes Stupak's amendment. One group must blink for ObamaCare to pass.

#2--Three House Democrats change their votes. Abortion is just one of the issues dividing Democrats. Rep. Cantor has identified 34 House Democrats who are facing a very difficult vote based on three issues: abortion, Medicare Advantage, and state budget crises. It is now an election year. The pressure is building. If three members feel enough heat to switch their votes, ObamaCare fails.

#1--The Massachusetts Miracle. The Bay State's special election next week to fill the late Sen. Kennedy's seat is now a tossup in some polls, and Republican candidate Scott Brown has pledged to be the 41st vote to block ObamaCare. If Brown is seated before the final ObamaCare vote, game over. There is already talk that if Brown wins, Democrats will stall his election certification in order to keep him from casting the deciding vote.

The special election is next Tuesday (1/19), before any final votes will be cast on ObamaCare. If a Republican takes Teddy Kennedy's seat, I say all bets are off. Democrats from coast-to-coast will suddenly get a lot more nervous about voting for ObamaCare. Unlike old king Belshazzar in the book of Daniel, they won't need a prophet to interpret the "handwriting on the wall" -- vote now for ObamaCare and get defeated in November.

Steve Elliott
Grassfire Nation