After about 103 days medical leave, President Muhammadu Buhari returned to the country yesterday, Emmanuel Oladesu, Group Political Editor, takes a look at the challenges before him as he returns.

PRESIDENT Muhammadu Buhari’s return has implications far beyond his coming to take back the reins of government. It is set to alter 2019 political calculations drastically.

Some of his rivals who were already dreaming of a post-Buhari era may now have to pull the break. The anxiety over his health may begin to fizzle out for now – casting uncertainty of the plans of many ambitious politicians.

The homecoming is cheery news for him, his family and political associates. But there are some puzzles: Is the president now fit to withstand the rigour of governance? Is he permanently or temporarily back? Is it another political game to convey the impression of wellness and blot the embarrassing picture of an ‘on and off president’? Has he returned to spend few weeks and months before going back?

The president’s return may alter the calculations of presidential aspirants in the ruling and opposition parties. The dream of a vacancy in Aso Villa may become blurred. If the ambitious politicians, particularly in the ruling Party, still carry on their activities, it will be in utter sensitivity to the fact that the president in back. It would appear that the coast is not clear yet. Buhari’s body language will henceforth, moderate political activities, ahead of 2019. At party level, he may plead with or compel party chieftains to stop distracting him with their antagonistic aspirations.

Already, some of the aspirants are making moves. Some are overtly campaigning on the borrowed platform of restructuring. The national question is being raised on the altar of partisanship to spite the leader who has not demonstrated commitment in that direction. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso, Kaduna State Governor Nasir el-Rufai are reportedly putting their thinking caps. Recently, there were reports in the media that the Turakin Adamawa had opened discussions with PDP elements in the National Assembly, in furtherance of his 2019 ambition. The veteran presidential aspirant is setting up structures and building new bridges. Also, it was reported that the supporters of the former Kano State governor have returned to the PDP to prepare the ground for his imminent defection. How will the president handle these scenarios?

Will he take a bow or re-contest in 2019? Time will tell. Buhari is constitutionally entitled to a second term. If he throws his hat in the ring, will the party rally round him? How united and formidable is the ruling party? The president’s influence may not have waned in the North. His support base may not be shrinking. It appears he remains popular in the region among the masses.

To these fanatical supporters, the feeling of vacancy in 2019 may be imaginary. Ultimately, it may be the undoing of the ambitious. Obviously, the North cannot on its own install a president for all Nigeria. Depending on the candidate the PDP will put forward, and the circumstances that may unfold as the gladiators warm up for 2019, it may not be difficult for the president to reactivate his partisan friendship with the Southwest progressive leaders for the purpose of re-election.

If the president does not re-contest, what next? If he steps down, the feeling is that the next APC presidential candidate will still come from the North, more so when the PDP has zoned its presidential ticket to the region. That means that the North will hold the Presidency for the 12 years.

Who among the APC aspirants will the president back if he decides not to run? Does Buhari have a succession plan? Who will emerge as the beneficiary of the plan? Who will he anoint? Will his preferred candidate be acceptable to the generality of the party?

Whether he will re-contest or not, Buhari will have to pay attention to his party. The edifice is cracking and creaking. Many observers have predicted that, unless concrete steps are taken, the platform will crumble. The leaders of the APC are not united by ideology. Their primary focus ahead of 2015 was how to displace Dr. Goodluck Jonathan’s PDP and capture power.

But having clinched power, things stated to fall apart. For the centre to hold, the president should act fast. To stem defections, he must broker reconciliation among the divided blocs and centres of influence in the APC. Leaders across the six geo-political zones who worked for the president’s victory at the poll, but who now feel that they are being sidelined, should be pacified and brought into confidence.

The final critical step is for the president to liberate himself from the cabals. The APC needs a strong crisis resolution mechanism. A united ruling party is in the interest of his Presidency.