• The recovery in oil prices was derailed by data showing growing oil inventories and rig counts in the US. Doubts have also been cast on the future of the OPEC deal to curb production in order to stabilise global oil prices. Thus, oil prices will likely remain lower for longer, at around USD50 in the medium term.
• Winners include China, India and Singapore which have significant oil refinery operations benefiting from lower feedstock costs. Losers from the price slump include Malaysia and Indonesia whose budgets depend on oil-related revenues as well as the Philippines which could see remittances from overseas Filipinos working in the Middle East declining.

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