Today the markets were bull (Agaist my yesterday forecast).
Results
- Dow Jones 11,499 +42 +0.36%
- Nasdaq 2,637 +20 +0.77%
- Standard and Poor's 1,243 +8 +0.62%
- IPC 37,833 +156 +0.41%
Good economic data today (on average). And the IPC follows SPX.
Related Articles
Indexes
IPC
- Almost all the stocks are in consolidation. Then the IPC behaves in line.
- Important resistance to break 38,000 to return to the Rally.
- Possibilities of a good year end, but with ups and downs.
- The selectivity of stocks is very important in the next two weeks.
Standard and Poor's
- Breaks the bearish channel. Now forming a bull channel. Can be the 5th Elliott wave? Is preparing for a big bull day tomorrow? Tomorrow mandatory break 1,247 to bull.
- Remember the Hindenburg Omen is a mid-term bear signal.
Nasdaq 100
- Breaks the bearish channel and is forming a bull channel. This is a bull signal if tomorrow break 2,225.
Dow Jones Industrials
- Without pattern. Important to break the 11,517 level to return to the bull territory. Mandatory for a bull day tomorrow.
VIX
- The VIX:VXV notes that maybe we are close to a top (high). In addition to the next signals:
- Hindenburg Omen. Post of dec. 14th and dec. 15th, 2010.
- CPC and CPCE very low many days in a row. Post dec.15th, 2010 and today.
- Seven green candles in a row. Post dec. 14th, 2010.
- New York Highs of 52 weeks too high. Post dec. 8th, 2010
This is not conclusive but take care.
CPCE
Put to Call Ratio on Equity too low. Two observations:
- Tomorrow probably a green candle.
- The SPX is close to a top (high).
Seasonality
- Dow Jones 48%
- Standard and Poor's 52%
- Nasdaq 43%
-- Tomorrow neutral.
- This week is Triple Witching so bull.
- The most important issue, tomorow "Bull Friday":
Conclusions
- The shor-term and mid-term trends are up.
- Hindenbur Omen Confirmed.
-- Many bear signals accumulated.
- Should be very cautious with the trading.
- While the liquidity continues flowing in the market will continue up.
- For tomorrow my feeling is bull:
- Bull Friday. 81% probabilities for bull.
- Triple Witching. 66% probabilites for bull (last 27 years). Maybe a huge up.
¿And the forecast for the next year?
According to Bespoke (who takes the oppinion of many financial institutions):
- This year is over the average. So if the forecast are correct and tomorrow we have an up, then the market should correct before the year end.
- For the next year the forecast is a modest +11%. But at least bull.
I hope Deutsche Bank analysis is correct.
This post first appeared on Mexico Stock Exchange (MSE Or BMV), please read the originial post: here
