Dear Readers,

How is everyone today? All well I hope. I’m ok myself (thanks for asking! :-). Today, I want to talk to you about… “how to know when to sell”.

Really though, how do you know when to sell? We read these online reports, with experts and analysts saying things like “now is the time to sell” or “now is a good time to buy”. When you read these articles, most of which are very well written, you can’t help but think to yourself, this guy knows when to sell.

Does he really though? How can he possibly know? It seems like if you really knew when to sell, you’d be so rich, you’d never have to bother writing anything again!

So How Does It All Work?

Well, though I’m a Property blogger, you’ll have noticed that I’m more storyteller, and less expert. That’s not to say I don’t know a thing or two, but I myself do not spend all day every day, working out what the market will or will not do. Of course, I think about it (and occasionally write about it), but some people will actually forecast market growth in the following year and the year after, etc. I’m not likely to do that.

Still, I will tell you my thoughts on when to sell, and how to work out when to sell.

Wow. A bunch of opening paragraphs and not even a whiff of a joke. The missus won’t be happy…

Go On Then, Tell Me When To Sell…

OK, so let’s bring it back to the core issue. How do you know when to sell? It’s simple. You don’t. No one does.

In all the calculations and analyses that you’ll see here and there (and everywhere), there’s an element of guesswork. You’d think that with all the computers we have and all the maths we know, we’d be able to work it all out, but we can’t. It’s really something if you think about it, but there you go.

It’s also true though, that there are so many people out there, telling you what’s what, that even if someone really did know, and tried to tell you, you wouldn’t be able to hear him. Just like at my house, there’s too much noise… (it’s the kids).

(Btw, have I told you that I can’t get my kids to be quiet for one minute? My son babbles like there’s no tomorrow. My daughter won’t stop singing. If the noise ever stops coming out of their mouths, they’ll start banging on something – as if they’re trying to make a point…)

To Understand The Future, You Must Know The Past…

(Sounds wise doesn’t it…?)

With all this noise… and guesswork, what’s a man to do? Well, most of the guesswork is in figuring out the future, that’s for sure. However, what is not guesswork, is the past (including the recent past). So, whereas we can’t be sure about what will happen tomorrow, if you know what’s happened for the past 1,000 days, you have a better chance of knowing what will happen tomorrow.

If you will allow me a silly analogy, it’s a bit like the weather. You never know what the weather’s going to be like tomorrow, but if you were wearing a jacket this morning, you’ll probably need one again tomorrow…

Trends

And that’s got to be your starting point. In order to decide when to sell, you’ve got to know what the house prices are doing now. In the UK, the Halifax, Nationwide, Land Registry (and others) publish “indexes”. These tell you if the house prices were going up or down in the recent past. They will tell you want the trends are.

They can tell you for the recent past (e.g. last few months), but also the more distant past (e.g. last few years). Additionally, they can give you the overall picture of the country or by area (e.g. West Midlands). Finally, though this has guesswork involved, you can see their official forecasts for the coming year.

Now, you can’t learn everything overnight. Start though, by reading about what’s happening in the housing market, and try to make it part of your daily or weekly routine. It can’t be a temporary thing though. It’s got to be long term to be effective. As a friend of mine would say “you’ve got to make it a lifestyle choice…”

Is That What You Did?

Well, I’m not as trendy as the guys above, but here’s my story anyway. Twenty years or so ago, when I started long commutes to college (and before I had a mobile phone), I’d read the paper on the train. As my commute was so long, I’d run out of the really interesting things to read (i.e. the footie scores) quite quickly. So then I started to look for the next best thing. And that turned out to be the business section.

Now, I don’t remember exactly which paper I read in the beginning, but I do remember reading the Metro (the free London newspaper), which (at the time at least), had a tiny business section (one page). This tiny section had a bunch of mini-stories, which you could read in 5 minutes. I did this, more or less every working day, for over 5 years. It was a lifestyle choice, but I didn’t really make it (not like the guys in the pic above). It kinda just happened.

As a result, before I knew it, I had given myself a basic “foundation of knowledge”. This would allow me to read (and understand), slightly more complicated business news. Now, remember, in the business section, there’s very often something about the Property Market, so without even realising it, I had been following the UK property market for 5 years. When the time came to make my first purchase, it just so happened that I knew (more or less) what was going on. I’ll be honest and say that I would have bought no matter the circumstances, but as luck would have it, I knew what the score was.

So What Do Analysts Do?

Analysts will have read all the latest data (e.g. from the Halifax etc), and will take into account other factors, which they think are important (e.g. the Brexit). Then, using maths slightly more advanced than what you or I would use, they will factor in all the trends as they expect them to go, and work out what (they think) will happen. However, every analyst will give you different forecasts (as you can see here on the beeb). It just goes to show how much guesswork is involved.

What Should I Do Then?

Well… the way I see it, you have two (“and a half”) choices:

1.a. You can find an expert that you like, and just listen to what he says. After all, the expert does nothing but think about properties and their prices, all day, every day. How can you compete with that? An expert might be the Guardian’s property section or some blogger.

[Didn’t see that one coming mate… btw, didn’t you say you’re no expert like 2 paragraphs up?]

1.b. If you don’t trust people you don’t know, then you can find a mate (an actual mate) who’s into property and just listen to what he says (and possibly replicate what he does). Similar to point 1.a. above. 

2. You can try to figure things out for yourself. A good starting point is reading about the property market regularly (try not to rely on a single source). You should also talk to people, including professionals and non-professionals (as convenient/possible), to get an idea of what everyone is thinking. The more information you collect, the more complete a picture you’ll have.

In truth, as far as I can tell, it doesn’t really matter how you start. As long as you regularly inform yourself about the latest trends, at one point you’ll end up in the same place as I am. [Oh no…!]

So I Will Know When To Sell?

Errr… not quite! (Sorry!). You will though, be able to make an informed decision. For example, everyone agrees that the London property market is now a “bubble” (i.e. the properties are overpriced, and a crash is coming). However, they’ve been saying that for at least 5 years… so when will it crash? This year? Next year? Who knows…?

They were saying that after the Brexit vote, the prices will start to fall (almost every analyst was saying that). They didn’t though. At best, there was a short lull (we don’t get any lulls at my house).

(Btw, did I tell you that the kids probably get it from my dad? Have I told you that when my father was at school, a teacher offered him a pound just to shut up for 5 minutes…? Seriously! This is true! I swear!)

Conclusion

Now, don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying Property Prices will never fall. They definitely will fall, and after that, they’ll definitely go up again (at one point). No one ever knows for sure when it will happen. What I can tell you though, is that regardless of whether property prices are falling or rising, there are still people getting rich off properties.

Property moguls always seem to be increasing the number of properties they own. So, maybe the answer is… don’t sell. Just wait it out. Having said that, Mrs May’s signed Brexit letter was just delivered. So, maybe property prices will start falling tomorrow?

If it’s your house you’re selling, it turns out that no one can tell you when to sell. Only you can make that call.

And with that, dear Readers, once again, I bid you farewell. As always, I need to hear from you. Was I making any sense today? Will London property prices keep rising? Will they finally fall? You gotta tell me! (And you’ll probably need to shout over my kids).

Yours as ever,
SJ

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