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Midterms: my breakdowns

In August, I stated a number of midterm Election races that were ones to watch. So, with nearly all of the results in, I thought I should go through and see how they went.


Gubernatorial


Michigan(Is it the AMWAY?)


It wasn't AMWAY's day: Gramholm securing her second term, beating Dick DeVos. Expect to see her star rise in future years.


California (Can Westley terminate the Governator?)


Perhaps the most dissapointing of races, Schwarzenegger getting home in a canter. But it is perhpas the first time an incumbant has been able to win on (for the most part) 'green' issues...food for thought in later elections, even in NZ.


Senate


Connecticut (A Three Way Dance)


This one as well failed to live up to expectations. Lieberman winning the only race that mattered, after losing the DNC nomination. Still, he has vowed to work within the Democrat caucus, which could be seen as an olive branch to his former party, or an attempt to consolidate his position and shut down notions of a repeat in 2012, or it could be that he just could not take the leap to the GOP.


Missouri (History never repeats)


Well, it did, but not for Talent. This was a barn burner, with the result being close, and a campaign that was muddied with the state referendum on stem cells and the appearance of actor Michael J. Fox, and the controversial comments of Radio Talk show host Rush Limbaugh in response. In the end, McCaskill picking up the swing state.


Rhode Island (it’s all about the electoral math, stupid!)


A bittersweet victory for the Democrats, with Lincon Chafee, one of the most liberal Republicans losing his seat, means that the Republican's caucus will be even more on the periphery than before. Bipartisanship just got a bit harder. Unsurprisingly Sheldon Whitehouse won the primary and the Senate election by seven points.


New Jersey (No One Likes Anyone in the Garden State)


Seen by some analysts as a referendum on State Governor (and former Senator) Jon Corzine, this eventually was superseeded with the states dislike for the President's performance, Robert Menendez being elected for a full term (he served the remaining year of Corzine's term)beating the republican candidate, Thomas Kean, Jr by 8%.


House


Arizona 8 (Kolbe’s out, who’s in?)


This race lived up to it's expectation. Gabrielle Giffords won over a number of challenges for the blue ticket in a marginally red state, going up against Randy Graf (who narrowly lost to the outgoing Jim Kolbe in the 2004 republican primary). Giffords easily beat Graf in the election, replacing the retiring Jim Kolbe, who again, a quite liberal republican (Kolbe is also an openly gay republican) and so the victory is bittersweet for bipartisanship.


Florida 22 (Unlucky 13?)


Another big win for the Democrats, removing stalwart Clay Shaw, a 12 term congressman. Shaw had perhpas his toughest rival in Rob Klein. Klein, who had the weight of the DNC behind him, strong credentials as a fundrasier, and Shaw's own controversies (Shaw had been criticized for refusing to return $30,000 in campaign contributions from ARMPAC: the organisation at the centre of the Tom DeLay scandal)in the end took the state away from the Republicans, in a blue district.


Indiana 8 (The bloody eighth!)


With its long history of incumbents being ousted, this did not dissapoint, with John Hostettler beaten comprehensively by Brad Ellsworth. Hostettler was unable to claw back his dismal popularity (in October they were in the 30-40% range), in spite of his history of wining tough re-elections.


Iowa 1 (Watch the signs)


In a battleground state like Iowa, any race is a useful indicator for the 2008 Presidential Elections. The blue state (although Jim Nussle, a Republican held the seat for 16 years), picked Democrat Bruce Braley over Republican Mike Whalen.


Illinois 8 (The empire strikes back)


Democrat Melissa Bean will be returning for a seond term, consolidating her 2004 win, with 51% of the vote, but well ahead of her major rival, David McSweeney.


Ohio 18 (another Ambroff casualty?)


Robert Ney's involvement in the Abramoff' scandal has cost his party this seat. Zack Space, a suprise winner of the democrat primary, beat Joy Padgett (who also won a tough primary). The result, a 30 point win to Space in a typically red state, is a real slap in the face to the GOP.


Pennsylvania 6 (Run to the hills)


Jim Gerlach repeated his 2004 win against Lois Murphy, right down to the 51% to 49% margin, his tactic of distancing himself from fellow republicans State Senator Rick Santorum (who lost his senate seat) and President Bush paid off...but only just.


Texas 22 (You reap what you sow)


This one will be put into a trophy and hung in the offices of the DNC headquarters. In a seat that only the Republicans could lose, they followed though with aplomb. Because of Tom Delay's bumbling, there was no Republican on the voter form, and the Republicans messing up their campaign for a “write in candidate” (which was expected to be local mayor David Wallace but the party went with Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, creating disunity within the local party apparatus), Nick Lampson won back part of his old district (that DeLay acquired in the 2003 redistricting) as well as his nemisis' seat. Vengance.


An animated version of the midterm results is avaliable here



This post first appeared on The Thorndon Bubble, please read the originial post: here

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Midterms: my breakdowns

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