The probability of a Korean War II happening is very slim – 99% it won’t happen. Still, there’s 1% chance that it would. The small percentage is due to ego the size of a jumbo jet displayed by both Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un. Both cannot back down as they would lose face. One of them might snap and gives a command to strike, and voila, the war would start.

A Korean War II could easily escalate to a World War III. After Trump warned North Korea against making any more threats to the U.S., saying the country “will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen,” Kim retaliated within hours and threatened to fire some ballistic missiles at Guam, a U.S. military base in the Pacific, sending panic to people of Guam.

If Donald Trump really thinks that Kim would strike Guam only, then the U.S. president is stupider than he looks. If I were Kim, I would unleashed simultaneously all the 60 nuclear warheads, the arsenal revealed by U.S. Defence Intelligence Agency. Hey, when you go to war with a superpower like America, you’re essentially entering a do-or-die war – No Holds Barred!

Unlike what many think, South Korea would be least destroyed, when a war does break out. North Korea will inflict minimal damage to its southern brother because a burnt down land would not do any good to a reunification, would it? Kim would probably send 5 nuclear warheads each to Guam, Hawaii and Japan, leaving the remaining 45 raining on America.

But North Korea would not start the war first, simply because China says so. While Beijing can ensure Pyongyang would not be reckless enough to fire the first missile, the Chinese cannot say for sure that Washington would not do so. Finally, China has spoken and as predicted earlier, China will come to the defence of North Korea if the U.S. strikes first.

State-run Global Times, published by the ruling Communist Party’s official People’s Daily, has just issued a warning to Trump administration. Beijing admits that it is not able to persuade either Washington or Pyongyang to back down but said – “It needs to make clear its stance to all sides and make them understand that when their actions jeopardize China’s interests, China will respond with a firm hand.”

The paper further said – “China should also make clear that if North Korea launches missiles that threaten U.S. soil first and the U.S. retaliates, China will stay neutral.” But what if the U.S. strikes first? Here’s what Beijing would do – “If the U.S. and South Korea carry out strikes and try to overthrow the North Korean regime and change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula, China will prevent them from doing so.”

In essence, there’re 2 messages that Beijing has for Washington, in case President Donald Trump is still clueless. First, Beijing is absolutely sure that Pyongyang will not strike America. Second, if Washington decides to carry a pre-emptive strike on North Korea anyway, China will defend Mr. Kim; the same way the Chinese army came to North Korea’s rescue during the 1950-53 Korean War.

This is the clearest signal and message from Beijing to Washington since the escalation of war of words between Trump and Kim. It appears that the navy drills off Korean Peninsula 4 days ago were a warning message to both North Korea and United States. Neither aggressor America nor rogue North Korea can start a war in the Korean Peninsula.

Beijing’s latest ultimatum is most likely due to the U.S. Defence Secretary Jim Mattis’s warning on Wednesday that North Korea must stop any action that would “lead to the end of its regime.” While China can afford to rubbish Trump’s regular bombastic rhetoric, the same cannot be said if such military threat came from the mouth of former general Mattis.

China has long worried that any conflict on the Korean peninsula, or a repeat of the 1950-53 Korean War, could unleash a wave of destabilizing refugees into its northeast. The worst part is that a war could end up with a reunified county allied with the United States because without China’s help, North Korea will definitely lose to an onslaught from U.S.-South Korea forces.

Now that China has firmly told the U.S. to back off, Trump administration would have to think twice about sending Tomahawks into North Korea. Even if President Trump thinks he could take on both North Korea and China at the same time, there’s a superpower up north of China called Russia. The Russians might join the party to defend North Korea too.

It’s worth mentioning that both China and Russia despise Washington’s deployment of U.S. THAAD in the South Korea. Both nations also have close relationship – commercial and military – with North Korea. President Xi Jinping and President Vladimir Putin do not believe Kim Jong-un is insane but rather pragmatic enough not to strike any nation with nuclear weapons.

Similarly, North Korea is a useful buffer state for Russia between it and U.S. forces based in the region. Russian’s military base of Vladivostok is very close to North Korea. It’s the home port of the Russian Pacific Fleet and the largest Russian port on the Pacific Ocean. If North Korea collapse, a unified Korea allied with the United States will be a step closer threatening Russia.

The then Soviet Union played a significant role during the 1950-53 Korean War too, supplying material and medical services as well as MiG 15 fighter jets to aid the North Korean-Chinese forces against the forced led by the U.S. Therefore, Russia will be involved in a second Korean War, one way or another. In a nutshell, America will be facing an alliance of China-North Korea-Russia forces.

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