Hurricane Harvey’s Impact
On Houston Real Estate MarketBest And Worst Houston Neighborhoods Two Months After Harvey
Two months after Hurricane Harvey, see which Houston neighborhoods are most and least affected by the Hurricane.
It’s been two months since Hurricane Harvey ravaged the Houston area (and the Houston Astros are now World Series Champions!!!)
As part of our Houston Hurricane Flooding Series (see the One Month Hurricane Harvey Lookback and the Houston Condos and Neighborhoods That Did Not Flood) we have an updated analysis. Winners and losers have started to emerge.
Our Analysis
For each of Houston’s Top 52 Neighborhoods, we analyzed real estate trends for:
- Sept & Oct 2017 (the two months post-Harvey) compared with both:
- January – August 2017 (“Early 2017.”)
- Sept & Oct 2016 (“Prior Period.”)
- Median home price changes.
- Average monthly sales volume changes.
- See the bottom of this article for our full methodology.
Executive Summary
The following are our major findings:
- The overall Houston market is performing well.
- Post-Harvey, for all close in Houston neighborhoods, for all property types:
- Median home prices are up 4% from Sept & Oct 2016 and consistent with Jan-Aug 2017.
- Sales volumes are down 6% from Sept & Oct 2016 (most of this dip coming in early Sep).
- Houston Condos are the big winners:
- Median condo prices rose 8% in Sep & Oct when compared to early 2017, and 22% when compared to Sep & Oct 2016.
- Condo sales volumes also rose 6% compared to early 2017, and 34% compared to Sep & Oct 2016.
- The rental market spiked for approximately 30 days after Harvey, but has since returned to early 2017 levels.
- 11 neighborhoods experienced a major decrease in the number of homes sold, but a major increase in median home prices. Details below along with our hypothesis on why this occurred.
- The majority of the close in Houston neighborhoods that experienced flooding were in the known flood plains and/or many homes in the area had experienced prior flooding. Caveat emptor.
As always, real estate is hyper local, see how your neighborhood is trending now.
Table Of Contents
Entire Close In Houston Real Estate Market
Areas That Benefited, Post Harvey
Areas With Fewer Sales But Increased Prices
Areas Materially Impacted, Post Harvey
ENTIRE CLOSE IN HOUSTON REAL ESTATE MARKET*
| MEDIAN HOME PRICE | SALES VOLUME | ||||
| Property Type | Post Harvey Change (Sept & Oct vs Jan – Aug 2017) | Sept & Oct 2017 vs Sept & Oct 2016 | Sept & Oct 2017 Median Price | Post Harvey Change (Sept & Oct vs Jan-Aug 2017) | Sept & Oct 2017 vs Sept & Oct 2016 |
| All Properties | 0% | 4% | $420,000 | -14% | -6% |
| Houston Condos | 8% | 22% | $342,000 | 6% | 34% |
| Houston Townhomes | 3% | 2% | $324,000 | -18% | -12% |
| Houston Single Family Homes | -3% | 0% | $460,000 | -14% | -7% |
Notable Updates:
- Total sales volume for all properties types in Sep & Oct 2017, dropped compared with both the average sales volume for Early 2017 and the Prior Period (as expected).
- Most of this decline occurred in the first few weeks in September, when both buyers and sellers paused from the market.
- The noticeable “winners” from Hurricane Harvey were the Houston condos that did not flood. The median condo price and the number of condo transactions jumped – both when comparing to Early 2017 and the Prior Period.
- In our opinion, based on what we were seeing in the market, we believe this increase in condo sales came from two segments:
- New buyers moving to Houston who were inundated with images of flooded homes. Many chose to be in a protected building instead of a single family home.
- People who flooded (or came close to flooding) did not want to take the risk of this happening again, and they chose to live in a condo building away from the bayous / flooded areas.
As always, real estate is hyper local, see how your neighborhood is trending now.
AREAS THAT BENEFITED, POST HARVEY
A handful of neighborhoods experienced meaningful price and/or sales volume increases since Harvey:
| MEDIAN HOME PRICE | SALES VOLUME | ||||
| Neighborhood | Post Harvey Change (Sept & Oct vs Jan – Aug 2017) | Sept & Oct 2017 vs Sept & Oct 2016 | Sept & Oct 2017 Median Price | Post Harvey Change (Sept & Oct vs Jan-Aug 2017) | Sept & Oct 2017 vs Sept & Oct 2016 |
| Royal Oaks | 20% | 30% | $900,000 | 22% | 7% |
| Washington East / Sabine | 13% | 5% | $449,000 | 6% | 0% |
| Champions Area | 9% | 0% | $249,900 | 9% | 1% |
| Heights / Greater Heights | 9% | 0% | $499,900 | -1% | 0% |
| Katy – Old Towne | 6% | 22% | $304,569 | 0% | 11% |
| Friendswood | 4% | 19% | $284,950 | 3% | 7% |
Notable Updates:
- Based on our outreach to over 250 clients, building managers and HOA community leaders throughout the city for our Houston Neighborhoods That Did Not Flood research project, we also have anecdotal data that most of the subdivisions within these neighborhoods fared very well during the storm.
As always, real estate is hyper local, see how your neighborhood is trending now.
AREAS WITH FEWER SALES BUT INCREASED PRICES
11 neighborhoods experienced a material drop in sales volumes, but a notable increase in median home sale prices.
| MEDIAN HOME PRICE | SALES VOLUME | ||||
| Neighborhood | Post Harvey Change (Sept & Oct vs Jan – Aug 2017) | Sept & Oct 2017 vs Sept & Oct 2016 | Sept & Oct 2017 Median Price | Post Harvey Change (Sept & Oct vs Jan-Aug 2017) | Sept & Oct 2017 vs Sept & Oct 2016 |
| Downtown* | 10% | 14% | $284,900 | -59% | -73% |
| Knollwood / Woodside | 3% | 7% | $479,450 | -44% | -67% |
| Highland Village / Midlane | 5% | 18% | $915,000 | -17% | -58% |
| Royden / Afton Oaks | 17% | 37% | $959,500 | -11% | -56% |
| Cottage Grove | 5% | 5% | $419,950 | -34% | -49% |
| Galleria | 25% | 7% | $749,900 | -28% | -43% |
| Oak Forest | 6% | 9% | $369,900 | -28% | -30% |
| Montrose | 4% | 5% | $675,000 | -32% | -28% |
| East Downtown / EaDo* | 3% | 10% | $319,450 | -28% | -11% |
| Rice / Museum District* | 15% | 6% | $754,950 | -16% | -10% |
| River Oaks | 20% | 47% | $2,392,500 | -25% | 0% |
Notable Updates:
- This was the most fascinating data to our team. Our speculation for why this occurred is below. Contact me to talk about specific neighborhoods or your home for details.
- Based on our anecdotal data and what we’re seeing in the market, we believe that most people who experienced flooding did not change regions of the city (e.g. Flood victims in Memorial, on average, did not relocate to the “dry areas” of the Inner Loop. Instead they stayed in the same region with their schools, churches, dry cleaners and friend community.)
- This implication meant that many of the biggest “winners” were neighborhoods that had partial flooding or were in proximity to flooding. The homes, subdivisions and streets that did not flood experienced material benefits (details & specifics below).
- Here’s an example of what we saw in the Downtown Houston market:
- Many of the condo in the northern part of downtown flooded.
- Several notable buildings were without power for a while and without elevators for more than three weeks. Units in those buildings experienced a huge drop in showings (Do you really want to see a condo if you can’t use the building’s elevator to get there?)
- However, all of the sales that occurred downtown since Harvey have been isolated to two buildings (both on the Houston condos that did not flood list).
- In each of the neighborhoods above, we have anecdotal data of both streets and homes that did very well and streets and homes that did not.
As always, real estate is hyper local, see how your neighborhood is trending now.
AREAS MATERIALLY IMPACTED, POST HARVEY
Several neighborhoods experienced a material change in their real estate market during Sept & Oct 2017 as compared to both Jan – Aug 2017 and Sept & Oct 2016 period. We highlighted ones below that had material reductions to either median home prices or sales volume (or both).
| MEDIAN HOME PRICE | SALES VOLUME | ||||
| Neighborhood | Post Harvey Change (Sept & Oct vs Jan – Aug 2017) | Sept & Oct 2017 vs Sept & Oct 2016 | Sept & Oct 2017 Median Price | Post Harvey Change (Sept & Oct vs Jan-Aug 2017) | Sept & Oct 2017 vs Sept & Oct 2016 |
| Braeswood Place* | -27% | -39% | $535,500 | 35% | 13% |
| Bellaire | -18% | -22% | $824,000 | -1% | 35% |
| Memorial Villages | -17% | -16% | $1,299,500 | -8% | -3% |
| Meyerland | -14% | -17% | $364,450 | -4% | 21% |
| Briargrove | -8% | -14% | $769,000 | 7% | 57% |
| Eldridge North | -6% | -8% | $212,450 | -5% | -9% |
| Memorial West* | -5% | 3% | $539,700 | -16% | -16% |
| Energy Corridor | -4% | 9% | $355,750 | -31% | -12% |
| Fall Creek | -3% | -4% | $310,439 | -27% | -18% |
| West University | -5% | 4% | $1,225,000 | -23% | -16% |
| Briargrove Park / Walnutbend | -3% | -2% | $439,450 | -19% | 37% |
Notable Updates:
- Within West University, Bellaire, Briargrove Park and Memorial Villages there are subdivisions that experienced the same benefit as the section above (certain streets benefitted – and homes that did not flood appreciated in value). However, the overall stats for the geo market area are presented above to be comparable with the rest of the study.
- Nearly all areas that experienced the worst decline in median sales prices have:
- A massive increase in the number of “Lot Value Only” and “Lots” listings & sales as compared with both periods from early 2017 and Sept & Oct 2016.
- Have material sections of the community that are located in the known and disclosed 100 or 500 year floodplains.
- A surprisingly large number of properties that have flooded multiple times in the past 5-15 years (e.g. Tax Day Floods, Memorial Day Floods, Tropical Storm Allison). Caveat emptor.
We have tools to search just for homes that did not flood. If you’re looking to buy a home please contact us.
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Methodology:
- We analyzed Houston’s Top 52 Neighborhoods from https://www.houstonproperties.com/houston-neighborhoods/salary-needed-to-buy-home
- All properties compared are just single family homes unless the neighborhood has a *. * neighborhoods include single family homes, townhomes and condos, except for Downtown Houston which only compares condo sales.
- “Post Harvey” data is referred to as the time period between September 1 – October 31, 2017.
- “Early / Earlier 2017” data is referred to as the time period between January 1 – August 31, 2017.
- “Prior Year” data is referred to as the time period between September 1 – October 31, 2016.
- All data is from the Houston Multiple Listing Service.
- Close in Houston refers to HAR MLS areas 4,9,16,17,22,23 & 24.
- To compare average sales volumes we monthalized the data (e.g. took the total sales for Sept & Oct 2017 and divided the number by 2; sales data for Jan – Aug 2017 was divided by 8).
The post Houston Real Estate Report: Harvey’s Impact On Houston’s Top Neighborhoods appeared first on Houston Properties.
This post first appeared on Houston Real Estate Blog / News | Paige, please read the originial post: here
