The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

Book Review from Hello and Lullaby

Throughout the 21^stcentury the United States will continue to be the leading global power. This is the basis of an analysis of the 21^st century given by George Friedman in his book “The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century” (which is primarily concerned with issues that affect the foreign policies of countries around the world over the next 100 years). In an increasingly globalized world, the U.S. Navy is more powerful than every other navy in the world combined. The U.S. military is also leaps and bounds ahead of every other military with over 800 bases around the world. Less attention is paid in the book to the economy and culture of the United States which are both further integrated with the world’s through multinational corporations like Apple and Microsoft, as well as institutions such as Hollywood.

While both the hard power and soft power of the United States make it seem as though it cannot be challenged by another nation state, I wouldn’t be so quick to assume the correlation of hard power with soft power. In looking at hard power there are 3 storms on the horizon, according to Friedman, which will change the dynamics of life in the United States in the 21^st century. The demography challenge, the energy challenge, and the innovation challenge. These challenges are similar to what many countries around the world will be facing. An aging population, the need for energy, and the need for business and technology to continue to develop. Challenges in soft power are not addressed.

I am a fan of the segmentation of ideas into their constituent elements such as Friedman has done with the challenges of our near future. Friedman also looks at major geopolitical trends and forces to provide an interesting and thought-provoking picture of the 21^stcentury from above, using the metaphor of tectonic plates with 5 areas of fault lines of tension that may turn into war. This type of macro analysis forecasting is extremely difficult, and though many of Friedman’s ideas of what may happen may not actually come true, the book is a good exercise in thinking about the future in general and the segmentation of ideas in particular. It provides a strong example of what forecasting is that may be of value to other authors, and hopefully more of this type of work starts to be published from diverse sources. That said, I’m not sure I would take the same Machiavellian perspective as Friedman with regards to U.S. foreign policy, and thus find fault in the fundamental idea of his picture of the 21^st century.

 I think there is a tendency by those such as Friedman to focus more on the more tangible hard power of military and economic strengths and less on the soft power of culture. The revolution brought on by companies such as Apple and Microsoft is a soft power revolution that I believe has the potential to transform foreign relations in addition to the lives of individuals. The 20^th century might see continued U.S. dominance in the arena of hard power, but it appears shifts in soft power are very likely as less developed countries modernize and produce more of their own media content. It is very difficult from within my cultural bubble to get a true sense of how this is already happening, but I can still tell this is where things are heading.

Inside the United States there is a process, first of diffusing of the power of what used to be the only 3 television stations to a large number of stations and more individuals with media access, then of Hollywood to independent film makers and of the media to citizen journalists and essayists on YouTube and other platforms. This real historical process is like a metaphor for what will happen to the United States in the 21^st century. The original institutions are still very influential, but they are declining in relative power and more constrained in their actions by a coalition of outside forces which do not need to control the infrastructure to benefit from it. The democratization of the world doesn’t necessarily just mean democracies in every country, but a world where smaller countries also have a say in where we are headed as a human species (to be determined by quality of content).