Q: Which team will stay unbeaten the longest?

A: Just the Kansas City Chiefs and Atlanta Falcons are left with a zero in the loss column at the conclusion of week three, less than the five teams that remained undefeated at this point last season. Going back a year before that, seven teams were able to make the 3-0 mark in 2015. Interesting fact: if you compare the teams on those lists, the Falcons are the only one on all three. While I don’t think this has an overwhelming impact on the Falcons success going forward, they’ve clearly made a habit of winning games early in the season.

For the last two years, the Falcons seem to be loaded at the skill positions, with quarterback Matt Ryan, wide receiver Julio Jones, and running back Devonta Freeman. Looking at these three ranked against the rest of the NFL in their position using ESPN’s standard PPR scoring, we see Ryan is the second highest scoring quarterback, Jones is the sixth highest scoring receiver, and Freeman is the seventh highest scoring running back. However, what worries me about this year’s Falcons is that Ryan doesn’t even crack the top ten quarterback list using those standards, and both Jones and Freeman have tumbled down their respective lists The second factor, after performance, to consider is the schedule the Falcons face going forward. While I don’t really see the Buffalo Bills or Miami Dolphins causing them too many problems, especially at home with a bye week in between, I expect the Falcons to lose when they travel to New England for week seven. When you combine the downturn in performances of key players with the Falcons’ schedule moving forward, I don’t see them carrying an undefeated record past five games, if they even make it that far.

As anyone who read my week one mailbag will remember, I identified the Chiefs as a team who stole a win on opening night through a string of lucky performances they couldn’t sustain. Clearly I was mistaken here. Running back Kareem Hunt is the real deal, scoring four touchdowns over the first three weeks of the season, accompanied by a yards per carry (YPC) over 8.5 with 401 yards from 47 carries. While quarterback Alex Smith hasn’t matched his fantastic week one quarterback rating of 148.6, he still hasn’t fallen below a QBR of 113.8. Receiver Tyreek Hill has two touchdowns and over 250 receiving yards in three games despite a slow week two. There is still a worry concerning who the Chiefs turn to if one of these guys goes down, but barring injury, the offense will continue to produce. Looking now to the schedule, the Chiefs should take care of business against the Washington Redskins and Pittsburgh Steelers at home and the Houston Texans on the road. The prolific offense should outscore all three of those teams, as they are only averaging 22, 21.33, and 17.67 points per game respectively, compared to the inflated 28.67 PPG of the Chiefs. However, I worry about the visit to the Oakland Raiders in week seven, as they are averaging 27 points per game (PPG) through their first three games.

Considering the available talent, performances thus far this season, and upcoming schedules, I have to pick the Chiefs to record the most wins before marking one in the loss column.

Q: Will anyone go winless this year?

Since the end of World War Two, Just four NFL teams have managed to go winless in a season: the 1960 Dallas Cowboys, 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1982 Baltimore Colts and 2008 Detroit Lions. With five teams sitting at 0-3 to start the season, there is certainly a chance that someone achieves this undesirable feat. My pick as the most likely team to join this infamous club is the Cleveland Browns.

They came very close to doing exactly this last year, winning by a field goal in their very last game of the season to limp to and 1-15 record. In the 2017 NFL Draft they had three first round picks, and managed to turn them into a defensive end who hasn’t played yet due to injury in Myles Garrett, a safety who has been underwhelming in Jabrill Peppers, and a tight end who has only five catches through three games in David Njoku. Unfortunately, they didn’t fare much better in free agency, with their marquee signing being Kenny Britt, someone they are paying 32.5 million dollars over four years. Britt has caught five passes in three games for a total of 69 yards. As a second round draft pick at quarterback, DeShone Kizer has an interception total of seven through three games, more than double his touchdown total of three. Turning the ball over at this kind of rate has already seen the Browns lose their opening three games. They haven’t made enough relevant personnel improvements to make me think they will be any better than the 2016 version of this franchise.

Going forward, the Browns will play the Cincinnati Bengals next week, who are also winless, but actually looked very good against the Packers, losing in overtime after a game tying drive from Aaron Rodgers. The Browns then play the Jets, who looked set to struggle this season but beat a Dolphins team by two scores on Sunday. If the Browns fail to win these two games, the only other possibility at a win I see in the schedule is their visit to the LA Chargers the first week of December. The Chargers are at the 0-3 mark thus far as well, but I believe that quarterback Philip Rivers has the experience to turn their fortunes around, with help from running back Melvin Gordon and receiver Keenan Allen.

Though a winless season is a rare occurrence in the NFL, it isn’t unheard of. Having narrowly escaped this woeful fate last season, and failing to add enough talent in the off season, I won’t be surprised to see a zero in the Browns win column when week 17 wraps up this year.

Last week’s Recap:

Week Two Mailbag Here

Nailed it:

The New England Patriots have an outstanding offense

Brady threw for five touchdowns on Sunday, to go along with 378 yards. The Pats didn’t have much of a ground game, but with Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola healthy and performing, it opened up space for newcomer Brandin Cooks who posted five catches for 131 yards and two scores. Expect them to continue to pick up wins, beating the Carolina Panthers next week at home, a team averaging just 15 points per game to the Pats incredible 33 PPG.

Bad Call:

Cooper Kupp for rookie wide out

Let me just say that this leans more towards the jury being out than a true bad call, given the time left in the season, but since a great week one outing, Kupp has only managed five catches for 50 yards in two games, including the offensive explosion on Thursday night that saw the LA Rams score 41 points. That said, no receiver has really made a claim for this particular throne, so I’m not quite withdrawing my vote for Kupp yet.

Jury’s still out:

Counting on Keenan Allen

Allen’s week three performance did nothing to sway me either way on this topic. He finished with a solid, though unspectacular, five catches for 67 yards against the Chiefs. I expect him to post big numbers at home next week against the Philadelphia Eagles, whose secondary had a preseason ranking of dead last according to profootballfocus.com.

Zach

Photo via the Flickr Creative Commons, thank to Kelly for the shot of Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.

Statistics all from Football Reference, unless otherwise noted.

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