It is always a fun time for the NBA when free agency starts up in early July. Players recruit free agents for their team by using emojis on Twitter, Brink trucks upon Brink trucks filled with money are handed out, and huge stars change scenery by signing with a new franchise.

In a short four days, we’ve seen Gordon Hayward leave Utah after seven years, Paul Millsap sign with the Nuggets, JJ Redick ink a Deal north of $20 million with Philly, and guys like Blake Griffin, Stephen Curry, Kyle Lowry, and Serge Ibaka receive huge paydays for resigning with their respective teams. The NBA as we knew it is totally different (although the end result may very well end up being the same thing).

One thing I love to explore in this league is the value of players and their contracts. With the salary cap so high these days, there is a whole lot of cash being handed out to athletes. Role players are making more than what the stars used to make, making it difficult to determine how much players are really worth anymore. Lucky for you, that’s the exact question that I tried to answer.

You may remember this segment from last year or may recall my Estimated Value Calculator used in recent posts to evaluate the best and worst contracts of the season. Similarly, I want to analyze this year’s free agency class and see what players truly deserve this summer.

To do this, I am using the “Future Salary Predictor” Model (FCP model) from last year. If you don’t know how this is setup, check it out right here, but it basically just projects a player’s stats for the upcoming season based on the last five years, and then turns that into a salary. A year ago, I had to adjust all of the calculations for inflation (AKA the increase in the league’s salary cap from $70 million to $94 million). So, I adjusted each salary once again to account for the $5 million increase in the cap from last year to the 2017-18 season.

Done Deals

Here are the deals that have already been completed, sorted from best to worst in terms of projected value. Green means it’s a great deal, white means it’s just right, and red means they may have been overpaid.

This doesn’t mean I hate that the Warriors gave Steph Curry the biggest deal in NBA history. If your guard is the best shooter in the world, won back-to-back MVPs, and delivered you two championships, you simply have to give him the maximum possible cash that’s humanely possible. Steph’s stats have just regressed this past season due to the increased roles of his teammates, thus making his projected value in the model a modest $29 million.

I also don’t hate what the Sixers did. They landed in the red on the JJ Redick and Amir Johnson deals but getting solid role players with experience is valuable in itself. Also, the structure of both contracts is very smart. Being just one-year deals, Philly isn’t really risking anything and will have the same financial options next summer.

Joe Ingles and George Hill both quietly provided nice production for Utah last year, so it is no surprise that they may have been underpaid.

Meanwhile, the Kings front office…did something good? Is that even possible? Yup, adding George Hill and Zach Randolph was a fantastic move for an inexperienced Sacramento team trying to find their new way of life without Boogie Cousins. Not to mention they received more projected value than they paid for. Well done, Sac Town.

Even though Kevin Durant’s injury stunted his projected value for next year, the model still thinks he deserves more money then he will make in 2017-18. Taking a paycut will make Durant one of the most valuable players in the league, regardless of what the model says.

Other FA Values

As far as the rest of the free agents go, there is still a good deal of talent out there. Here’s what the rest of the free agents deserve for the upcoming season.

James Johnson shows a flaw in the model for sure. He had such dramatic boosts in his numbers – especially value numbers like Win Shares and Value Over Replacement – that resulted in skewed data from the FCP model. He had a very nice year but is not worth $34 mill that the FCP model tags him at. That being said, the model does pick up on the value of youth and development, which this list of players reveals, and provides a great transition into my next subject matter.

“Net Targets”

There’s a handful of free agents on this list who are coming off cheap rookie contracts with a lot of potential. The model heavily values young players like this who show strong signs of improvement and development this past season.  These guys are what I call Net Targets: Young and partially unproven free agents that are coming off early contracts and are being targeted by teams looking to take an expensive gamble for their potential. They are also called this because if I was running the Brooklyn Nets, these are the players I would be going after.

Brooklyn has actually already shown interest in some of the Net Targets that my model points out. Trading for D’Angelo Russell displays their intent to land young talent who could shine in a featured role, and their free agent targets of Otto Porter and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope only further shows this pattern. Here are the top Net Targets in the 2017 free agent class.

Otto Porter, (RFA)

2017-18 Projected Value: $34,195,000

Porter was one of the most efficient players from deep last year and made large strides in all departments of his game. At 24 years of age, he should have max-deal appeal and if Harrison Barnes got one last year, he will surely get one as well.

Dion Waiters, (UFA)

2017-18 Projected Value: $28,638,000

The entry fee onto Waiters Island is about to get a lot more pricey. The shooting guard came out of nowhere this season and became the lord and savior for the Heat in many clutch moments.

Tim Hardaway Jr., (RFA)

2017-18 Projected Value: $28,182,000

Hardaway Jr. was instant offense all season long for the Hawks and is one of my favorite underrated players. With the exception of turnovers and free-throw percentage, the guard improved in all major categories in 2017-18. That is impressive for a 25-year-old who was already a solid role player.

JaMychal Green, (RFA)

2017-18 Projected Value: $21,400,000

Green is probably the most under-the-radar guy on this list so far, but he is worth your attention. He has steadily improved for the Grizzlies over the last two years and offers some nice versatility on both ends of the floor. He can do a lot for a basketball team and although he’s not too young (27 years old), I would easily throw $20 million or so if I were a team like the Nets.

With Hayward signing with Boston, the dominoes will likely begin to fall. Expect the “Net Target” players to be the new talk of the town with the big names off the board. When there are new deals that occur, we’ll now know who gets overpaid or underpaid thanks to the FCP model!

-Erik

Follow Erik Johnson on Twitter: @erikjohnson32

Photo via Flickr

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