The MLB Playoffs are finally here. After the Wild Card games there are now only 8 teams left standing. In this American League Preview, I will discuss each team’s chance of advancing to the World Series. Who has the best chance of playing in November?

1. Texas Rangers (95-67)

The Rangers had the best record in the American league with 95 wins. That number however seems to be a little skewed. Texas only had a + 8 run differential on the entire season which is by far the worst in the majors. The Rangers went 36-11 in one run ball games which speaks to the reason of why they had such a good record. This year they play the Blue Jays, a team they lost to in 5 games a year ago.

Texas was pretty good this year offensively ranking 7th in the majors in runs (765). Their offense seemed to improve once they made the mid-season acquisitions of Carlos Beltran and Jonathan Lucroy. The Rangers have been pretty balanced 1-9 all season with Ian Desmond, Adrian Beltre, Rougned Odor, and Elvis Andrus having really productive seasons.

On the flip side Texas has not been the best defensive team ranking 19th in fielding percentage (.984). The infielders typical do a nice job for the team but the outfield certainly lacks range. It will be interesting to see how Texas aligns their outfield in the series. Carlos Gomez, Ian Desmond, Carlos Beltran, Shin-Soo Choo, and Nomar Mazara are all options.

Pitching has not been the strength of the Rangers this season ranking 22nd in team ERA (4.37). Part of the reason could be the fielding difficulties. The current playoff rotation currently looks like Cole Hamels, Yu Darvish, Colby Lewis, and Martin Perez. Phillies fans know all too well that Cole Hamels struggles in the postseason. This unit definitively doesn’t scare me. Neither of these guys have had a ton of postseasons success.

The bottom line is Texas simply isn’t a very good team. They had the privilege of beating up on a bad division that includes the A’s and Angels. I’m taking the Blue Jays, don’t be fooled by that record.

2. Cleveland Indians (94-67)

The Indians are the winners of the AL Central and were a strong team all season long. Cleveland had a +101 run differential which is a sign of a really good team. One thing to consider with the Indians is they will be without the services of two aces in Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar. A team that was carried by their rotation will now have to do it without their two young studs. Terry Francona is one of the game’s best managers and will be a tough out.

Cleveland ranked 5th in runs this year (777) which surprised a lot of people. Of course you probably shouldn’t have been surprised considering I picked them to win the AL Central prior to this season. The big power production has come from Mike Napoli and Carlos Santana each hitting 34 home runs. Jose Ramirez has been the teams MVP hitting .312 on the season playing a multitude of positions.

The Indians rank 11th in the league in fielding (.985). The Indians also have the speed element on their side with Rajai Davis and the rest of that outfield covering a lot of ground. Short stop Francisco Lindor could be a candidate for a gold glove in the American League.

The pitching staff was the strength of this team. Carrasco and Salazar losses will be tough to overcome. The good news is the Indians have an excellent late game bullpen with Andrew Miller and Cody Allen. Cleveland will only go with a 3 man rotation featured by Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber, and Josh Tomlin. Kluber has a chance to win the Cy Young award. Bauer had a breakout season and can definitely bring it. Tomlin on the other hand is the team’s 5th starter and is shaky for the playoffs.

Overall Cleveland is a good team but they remind me of a squad that is young but not yet ready. This team is filled with young emerging talent but will need another go around to be real contenders. Boston wins the series.

3. Boston Red Sox (93-69)

There is no question that Boston is the best team in the American League. Their overall roster stands above every team in the American League without question. Boston’s run differential of +184 leads the league by a wide margin. The only difference is the Red Sox have one of the worst managers in the majors in John Farrell. That run differential probably could have resulted in a 105 win season. If the Red Sox win the World Series it won’t be because of their manager.

The Red Sox have the best offense in the majors. The Red Sox scored 878 runs in 2016; 33 more runs than the next highest scoring team. Realistically the Red Sox have 4 MVP candidates in their lineup (Mookie Betts, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, and Hanley Ramirez). Boston has 5 guys in their order who hit at least 20 homers. The Red Sox have the best offense in the league and it really isn’t a close 2nd.

The Red Sox have also been very good defensively. They rank 4th in the majors in fielding percentage (.987). MVP candidate Mookie Betts also leads the league in defensive runs saved. The only real hole on this team is 3rd base, who knows why John Farrell keeps playing Aaron Hill and Travis Shaw over Brock Holt. Catchers Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez may be the best kept secrets in the big league’s as they both consistently throw base runners out.

The Red Sox rotation is set with Rick Porcello, David Price, Clay Buchholtz, and Eduardo Rodriguez. Porcello will probably win the Cy Young this season with his 22 wins and 3.15 ERA. Price has never won a postseason game and could either be due or in line to struggle again. Buchholtz has always been a good big game pitcher and is probably fine in the 3rd game role. Boston’s bull pen has also been sensational down the stretch with Craig Kimbrel, Koji Uehara, and Brad Ziegler in the back end.

The Red Sox are my pick to make the World Series. The numbers show they simply are the best team in the American League. Boston has to go out on top in David Ortiz’s last year right? The team may also be getting a helping hand with the return of Pablo Sandoval later in the postseason.

4. Toronto Blue Jays (89-73)

I have always thought that the winner of the wild card game between Toronto and Baltimore would win the ALDS series with Texas. As mentioned above I think the Rangers are the biggest frauds of any playoff team. Toronto also has a +93 run differential in a really tough AL East division where 4 of the 5 teams had winning records. Toronto was on the big stage a year ago and could be posed to make another deep run.

Toronto’s offense is very good led by Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion. Encarnacion in particular lead the league with 127 RBI’s tied with David Ortiz. He also hit 42 homers and will probably get a nice pay day when free agency comes. Donaldson is an MVP candidate who had an incredible .404 on base percentage. When the postseason comes around you know guys like Jose Bautista, Russell Martin, and Troy Tulowitzki will come to play.

Toronto ranks 10th in fielding. The Blue Jays have some studs defensively with Kevin Pillar and Tulo. Everyone on this team plays a part. There truly isn’t a defensive liability besides for Encarnacion at first.

The Blue Jay rotation has been surprisingly good this year. Marco Estrada and J.A. Happ lead the charge as ace quality stuff. Marcus Stroman also had a lot of success last season. That’s not even including Aaron Sanchez who lead the league with a 3.00 ERA. The Jays also have a great closer with Roberto Osuna. Jason Grilli and Joe Biagini make up a nice bull pen. Even Francisco Liriano fills a role.

This team is just flat out good. There is not question they are the next best team in the American league. The only difference is they play in the hardest division. I expect them to face the Red Sox in the ALCS.

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