IATA - The International Air Transport Association along with the Air Transportation Systems Laboratory at University College London (UCL), the Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) and the Mission Possible Partnership (MPP), released the Aviation Net Zero CO2 Transition Pathways Comparative Review.
This is the first publication to compare 14 leading net zero CO2 transition Roadmaps for aviation. The report aims to provide a “one-stop shop” for airlines, policymakers and all aviation stakeholders to better understand the key similarities and differences between the various roadmaps, and their visions for achieving net zero carbon emissions for aviation by 2050. Specifically, the report compares the selected roadmaps in terms of their scope, key input assumptions, modelled aviation energy demand, respective CO2 emissions, and the emissions reduction potential of each mitigation lever (new aircraft technologies, zero-carbon fuels, SAF, and operational improvements).
Key findings from this analysis include:
• Possible pathways to net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 differ significantly depending on the key assumptions of the authors regarding how decarbonization technologies and solutions may evolve. Depending on these assumptions, the resulting role of particular levers in aviation’s decarbonization will be more or less important.
• All roadmaps assume that Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) will be responsible for the greatest amount of CO2 reductions by 2050. The role of SAF varies from 24%-70% (with a median value of 53%). This wide range reflects the uncertainties regarding potential supportive government action, the level of investments, cost of production, and profit potential, as well as access to feedstocks.
