Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast
November 1st, 2022 @ 11:15 AM – High clouds continue to stream into the area at this time. If you look at the Mammoth Mountain Summit webcam you can see some snow falling off in the backcountry. You can also see the snow on the radar image moving into the area at this time.
Checking in on the current conditions up top the temperature as of this post is 23 degrees and winds are out of the SW at 49 MPH with gusts to 57 MPH. Down at MC Coy Station, the temperature is sitting at 30 with a wet bulb of 24. Down at Main Lodge, the temperature is 22 with winds out of the WSW at 6 MPH gusting to 21 MPH.
The Mammoth Weather story as of this morning shows the forecasted inside slider coming right down the Sierra instead of to our east. That’s good news for the snowfall forecast, with amounts now in the 6-12 inch range. Snowfall ratios will start out low and then be in the 15-1 range behind the front.
What you can expect from this system later today is developing snow showers ahead of the front and then heavy snow moving in for a period of time late this afternoon into the evening hours.
Once the initial front moves there will be snow showers at times Wednesday into Thursday morning. Some of the models including the HRRR show more moderate accumulating snow later on Wednesday.
The EU model continues to be the drier solution with the GEFS, GFS, and HRRR wanting to bring in an inch+ of water content by Thursday morning. Will be fun to watch and see how this all plays out over the next 48 hours.
Winds should increase over the next few hours with ridge tops gusts in the 80+ MPH range possible for several hours, winds will become more moderate once the front passes but there will still be strong gusts possible at times.
Temperatures will take a 20-30 degree drop by Wednesday morning creating some epic snowmaking conditions into early Friday morning. Lows look to be in the lower teens Wednesday and Thursday nights around the Main Lodge Snowmaking area.
Snowmaking Time – The Snowmakers are going to have a great run and could run non-stop until Friday morning. With a good snowmaking run and fresh snow, there is a great chance that there will be more than just Broadway opening on the 11th.
After this first system passes, the longer-range pattern details keep changing as models are struggling a bit. For now, there is a chance of snow showers in the forecast from Sunday and beyond.
I will be working on an update on next week’s forecast later today when all the EPS data from this AM has come in and posted.
Snowman
Here is the most recent run of the HRRR Model
Here are the links to the specific highs, lows, and wind speeds for many of the major recreation points in the Eastern Sierra: Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge, Top of Mammoth Mountain, Mammoth Lakes, June Lake, Crowley Lake, Toms Place, Rock Creek Lake, Bishop & Mill Pond, South Lake.
Mammoth WeatherGuy Powder Outlooks will be back in early November. Here is the link to all of Ted’s past posts.
Current Satellite View
Mammoth Mountain Weather Discussion & Data
11-1-22 @ 11:54 AM – The next 16 days below are highlighted by 2 systems, the first being this weeks now hybrid sierra slider and then the second in the outlook period that is now forecast to come in from the west starting around the Sunday / Monday time period.
The second system as seen on the models today would bring in 12-18+ inches of additional snow and allow the snowmakers to run most of next week. Confidence in the system for next week right now is low, need to see a few more consistent runs.
Forever Hopefull the Mountain Will Be Buried Again Soon, Snowman
Here is the GEFS Ensemble going out right to the opener at Mammoth Mountain. If this comes true it could be a world in white by November 11th.
Here is the EPS Ensemble Model going out 16 days.
EPS – Temperature Anomaly Ensemble Mean
November into March Mammoth Weather Trends
10-5-2022 @ 11 AM – The new run of the EPS Seasonal is out and it continues to show the trend of an average to above-average winter for snowfall. Each run has been getting a bit wetter and this month’s run is the best looking yet.
Of course, now it has to pan out over the next 6 months and this data is no guarantee Mammoth Mountain will get dumped on. Last year at this time the only wet month the seasonal EPS had on this date was December and the rest showed red and dark brown drought colors.
So good vibes moving forward as we start the snow and cold air watch now.
Snowman
