By Todd M. Rosenblum

This commentary was written by national security strategist Todd M. Rosenblum. The views expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of Modern Shipper or its affiliates.

President Joe Biden’s decision in July to convene the Presidential Emergency Board (PEB) to ensure an equitable resolution of labor negotiations between the nation’s largest railroad unions and commercial Rail carriers is critical for passengers and workers and industry. It is also essential for preserving the nation’s readiness for conflict in this period of heightened uncertainty.  

Both rail operators and industry officials are facing a mid-September deadline to agree to a new contract that is fair and equitable for all parties — middle-ground compromise with historical precedent. Failure to come to an agreement consistent with the recommendations of presidentially appointed arbitrators risks a break in commercial rail operations during a period of international tumult and broader, global supply chain disruptions. This impacts National Security as well as commercial vitality.  

The Biden administration is correct to engage proactively to try and bring the parties together.  Convening the PEB and the board’s issuance of recommendations is an important element of the resolution process. Getting to that settlement will help signal to adversaries that our readiness to respond to provocation is high, and our supply chain is becoming more resilient, not less.

The stakes couldn’t be higher. Consider that the U.S. Army is highly reliant on the availability of commercial rail operators to move material cross-country to ports of embarkment for overseas contingencies. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) completed a comprehensive assessment of the U.S. military’s dependency on commercial rail in 2021, noting that there are more than 120 defense installations and activities in the country that require commercial rail to meet their assigned missions. Army officials also offered that approximately 67% of their unit equipment moves by rail from a fort or base of origin to a shipping port during contingencies.

The Army is so reliant on this mode of commercial transport that it has identified 33,000 miles of railroad track “as important to national defense and designated [it] as the Strategic Rail Corridor Network under the Department of Defense’s Railroads for National Defense Program.” According to the GAO, the Army’s plan is to rely on civilian operators for the movement of its vast material for war-fighting purposes. More precisely, the Army determined in a 2020 simulation that it needs more than 2,200 commercial rail cars (and operators) over a three-day period to move war-fighting material from a single fort in support of a large-scale combat operation. 

Congress also has taken notice of the U.S. military’s reliance on commercial rail and the Army’s reduced investment in its own capacity to support rail movement of heavy equipment from domestic bases and for transport overseas. The fiscal year 2020 National Defense Authorization Act directed the Army to examine the extent to which it has enough rail-operating capacity to support its mobility requirements. Army officials stated that a possible gap could exist in the event of a large mobilization, meaning reliance on commercial rail operators will remain essential for the foreseeable future. 

Tensions are extraordinarily high right now between the United States and China over Taiwan, and both Washington and Beijing are signaling each other of their respective resolve. While most China watchers do not believe the country is readying for a near-term assault, they do see Beijing posturing aggressively with military force and looking at U.S. action to see if Washington remains ready and capable to stand by its democratic partner in the Pacific. A collapse in the negotiations between railroad operators and companies would only further Beijing’s view of a waning United States with weakened readiness to respond to a short-notice attack.

The broader U.S. national security apparatus also benefits from resilient commercial rail operations. It makes our nation more productive, mobile and attractive for investment. High functioning rail further incentivizes manufacturing onshoring of supply chain goods, ranging from semiconductors to critical boosters for space launch vehicles. Secure rail also greatly facilitates the movement of operational energy and emergency supplies during responses to natural and human-made hazardous events, such as floods, fires and hurricanes. 

Time is short, but a deal between railroads and labor could be on the horizon. Most of the unions needed to sign off on one have indicated they had a tentative agreement to avoid a rail shutdown.

All parties have a chance to have a respectful and equitable conclusion to the negotiations.  This will be of benefit to the nation, including its national security. However, it is still possible that Congress may be asked to intervene should the mandatory 30-day time clock expire for acceptance of the PEB’s recommendations.

The good news is that Congress’ job could be fairly easy if it decides to institute the panel’s recommendations. Surely, all parties involved must know what is at risk and that the world will be watching.

Todd M. Rosenblum is a national security strategist, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and served as a Deputy Under Secretary of Intelligence at the Department of Homeland Security and as an Acting Assistant Secretary for Homeland Defense at the Pentagon from 2009-15.