In the midst of growing US-China tensions and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there is a transformation happening in global trade. Companies are bringing their supply chains closer to home, shifting from fossil fuels is increasing the demand for electrification materials, and artificial intelligence is forcing employees to learn new skills. These changes are already impacting global commerce, which is a $32 trillion industry.

One example of this transformation can be seen in Morocco, where trucks from a Connecticut logistics company transport car parts and clothing across the Strait of Gibraltar. In Japan, a new semiconductor plant has brought major changes to a once-quiet farm town. In France, a battery plant has introduced robots and forced employees to adapt to new roles.

In the US, the trade war with China has led to a surge in traffic between Mexico and the US. US imports of tariffed goods from China have decreased, and Mexico has filled the gap. The World Trade Bridge in Texas is experiencing increased traffic, with trucks crossing the Rio Grande multiple times a day. The Texas Department of Transportation predicts that crossing times could reach almost 9 hours by 2050.

Another consequence of this transformation can be seen in southwestern France, where workers are being trained to supervise robots in the production of electric vehicle batteries. Ludovic Josien, who previously worked in traditional car factories, now has to be prepared to intervene when the robots make mistakes. Automotive Cells Co. (ACC) is playing a key role in Europe’s challenge against China in building EV batteries.

In Canada, a project in Windsor, Ontario, highlights the risks of national industrial policy. NextStar Energy Inc., a joint venture of Stellantis and LG Energy Solution, halted a project to produce batteries for EVs in May. They chose to accept a more substantial aid package from the US, which added an extra C$14 billion to the project.

These examples demonstrate the significant changes happening in global trade due to geopolitical tensions, the shift towards electrification, and advancements in automation. The effects of these trends are already reshaping the global economy.

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