A groundbreaking study suggests that by mid-century, the crucial system of Ocean Currents responsible for transporting heat northward across the North Atlantic could face Collapse. Scientists have long warned that such a collapse would have catastrophic consequences, including significant sea-level rise and extreme weather events worldwide.

In recent years, there have been varying opinions among researchers regarding the likelihood of the collapse of Atlantic currents. The topic even inspired a movie that deviated considerably from scientific evidence. While the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated just two years ago that such a collapse was improbable in this century, the latest research published in Nature Communications challenges this view, suggesting that the collapse may be closer and more probable than previously believed.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation, a critical system of ocean currents that circulates water throughout the Atlantic Ocean, has been progressively slowing down since the mid-1900s, as stated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. If the slowdown continues or leads to a complete halt, the consequences could include intensified Northern Hemisphere weather patterns, rising sea levels on the East Coast of the United States, and prolonged droughts in Southern Africa. However, the precise timing of such events remains uncertain.

In their study, Danish researchers Peter and Susanne Ditlevsen analyzed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic from 1870 to 2020 as a proxy for assessing the state of the circulation. Based on their findings, the system could collapse between 2025 and 2095, depending on current global greenhouse gas emissions. This contradicts the prediction made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2021, which projected that the collapse was unlikely to occur within this century.

“While this study, like many previous studies, inevitably contains uncertainties, and climate impact assessment as a whole is subject to significant uncertainties, it is clear that swift and profound action is necessary to mitigate major climate risks,” remarked Julio Friedmann, chief scientist at Carbon Direct, a carbon management company, in a statement.

In an in-depth analysis of the Ditlevsen’s study published on RealClimate, a platform for climate scientists, co-author Stefan Rahmstorf, who also conducted a related study in 2018, described the tipping point for the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation as highly uncertain. However, he also referred to the IPCC estimate as conservative and expressed concerns about the next few decades, stating, “Increasingly, the evidence points to a risk far greater than 10% during this century.”

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